TODAY: Very tricky transition day!! The transition consists of the remnants of Emily pulling out to the N-NNE and eventually NE-ENE through tonight. This system will NOT affect Florida directly, but the wind fields and dry-slots at various levels of the atmosphere (in different locations) will through today and tonight.
In other words, the atmosphere over much of Florida is variegated. There is irrefragable proof as you will see in the images that follow.
In NO LOCATION do values 'stack up' favoring rainfall...until possibly after or near dark tonight. Thus, the majority of the day will be spent readjusting, relaxing, waxing and waning...which leads to the first 3/4 of the day depending on Lake and Sea-breeze boundaries to interact to create thunder or showers.
It is easier to show the transformation and what is happening today via PICTURES...Please See captions:
Then we have the mid-levels of the atmosphere:
FOR EARLIER TODAY: The Lake Breeze, Everglades "Affect" could generate some storms...but cirrus MIGHT put a damper on this activity. Hard to say for sure. The FURTHER the remnants of Emily move AWAY from Florida..the better the chances of rain and storms earlier... as time progresses, activity could get steered toward the SE coast, especially after 4pm. The dry air in the mid-levels over SE Florida seems to be preventing storms to form..but once they can...look out for lightning and wind gusts. SEE CAPTIONS:
LATE AFTERNOON/MIDNIGHT: Believe the Trough (Sloth) of Emily's Memory (aka, Casper) will never develop into anything. However, as it pulls away, mid-level winds (as well as surface winds near dark)...will back toward becoming from the NW-W rather than the NE as they are now, especially headed toward sunset and beyond. Activity from North Florida could send outflow boundaries East and South, whereas any activity over South and far South Central in Okeechobee and Martin Counties could send boundaries Northward. Thus, those boundaries combined with increased low level moisture running from Osceola, Orange, Seminole, Western Volusia, Lake, Marion, and Flagler Counties could result in a 'string of pearls' along the St. Johns River Valley and into the Basin from JAX to near or East of Orlando. I'm also seeing a signal that with the high clouds having moved out (although after dark they have little impact)...A part of Palm Beach or Martin County could see some nocturnal activity. If this activity can sustain itself in the middle of the night..it COULD even reach the barrier islands or A1A corridor from Cape Canaveral to JAX between 10pm to 2am.
Bear in mind, this is a big transition day. These days are very hard to predict in the summer, since there is no previous day to compare it to in regard to storm strength, motion, and how long they will last. However, last night's activity over the west side of the state lasted until 3AM...so perhaps we can take that as a sign. FOR TONIGHT, below:
|READ CAPTIONS. This is the current radar..note the lack of showers over SE Florida. This might have changed by the time I finished writing up this post, which takes about an hour.|
SUNDAY/WEDNESDAY: Headlines should read: HOT along A1A from JAX to Miami. Some record highs possible. Humid, with threatening heat indices...esp. Monday and Tuesday along A1A. Some strong storms possible near the East Coast late day to early evening near SE Florida, Brevard, and North to JAX...mainly Sunday and Wednesday. Monday and Tuesday might not see a sea breeze at all...so chances of thunder might be limited. But, given the strong west to east steering aloft and moist air forecast, showers could evolve into storms from the west coast sea breeze as they progress toward A1A. Also note, there is a TUTT trough approaching the Florida Straits. It appears impacts from that will be limited to far South Florida and the Keys. If so, showers and storms might be limited to near zero on Monday or Tuesday...just have to see what happens with that entity in the next day or so.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY: Transition into more generic of days with the heat relaxing a small bit. By Friday...a tropical wave might be disrupting (or even Thursday) the cycle so fun -n-games forecasting will be in the cards....which leads to the TROPICS:
TROPICS: Many tropical waves are pooping up...Yes..so far Pooping Up...popping up (typo)...over the Atlantic between Emily's Memory and Africa. It does appear that the period from August 12 through the 17th might be full of tropical discussions regarding this activity. Especially as we approach the 22nd. The one thing I want to point out is that all of these waves so far are projected to come off Africa at around 7-10 degrees north latitude. This is very far south..for an Atlantic entrance...and favors activity to threaten Puerto Rico time and time again...taking a track similar to Emily...Storms that can develop and pass north of Puerto Rico could threaten the U.S. East Coast from Florida to North Carolina...and those that pass south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic could impact the Gulf side from Louisiana to NW Florida...and then there's those that go 'in between'. Just a heads up....NOW is the time to take casual preparations in one's spare time as the urge strikes...if in no other form than a mental or written checklist....