"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Sunday, February 10, 2013

Warming Trend Thru Wednesday, Then.....Phase II Winter Alert?

Noon time temperature and surface wind as noted in graphic.
This shows ESE surface wind around 15-20mph and warm

TODAY: As noted above. Wind tonight will become more southerly well ahead of an approaching cold front as the high pressure to Florida's East abetting in the increased pressure gradients winds shifts further away to the east. With continued onshore overnight flow, coastal lows tonight will be in the lower 60Fs.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: Winds becoming more S-SSW and warmer; a bit breezy as well. Rain free with highs in the Upper 70Fs to lower 80Fs.  A frontal boundary could make it as far south as Central Florida (somewhere) but remain dry except toward the I-10. That will be short lived though as it retreats back north into Georgia as a warm front. Thus, Monday and especially Tuesday will be warm  "all-quads" with breezy SW winds continuing into Wednesday.

WEDNESDAY: St. Valentine's Eve Day will be breezy and warm as another cold front approaches. Best chance of any rain, and perhaps some thunder will be along to north of I-4, although cloud coverage could increase by mid afternoon as moisture in the atmosphere increases.  The new and better defined front will have  'formulate' as a result of low pressure forming over Texas which will be moving east across the Southern Tiers of the Deep South.

It appears now that the front will be crossing Central Florida well after dark Wednesday night and reach South Florida by Day Break St. Valentine's Day. However! (pause...)  It will be a very shallow post frontal passage air mass (at first) with very cool NNW winds behind it, but only up to about 2000 ft, which is meant by the word 'shallow'. 

Above that level , we await a strong mid level trough to cross the state. In the meantime, strong divergent Jet Stream Level Winds will be screaming overhead resulting in mid level lift and lower level warm air over-running. Where ever that over-running 'zone' ends up could result in persistent light to moderate rain. Guidance has varied from South Central and more to South so far. Regardless....

St. Valentines Day:  So far, it looks to be cloudy south of I-4  as a result of the shallow post cold frontal air mass and over-running combination. Net effect will be quite cool in the temperature department and even cooler where (and if) rain starts to fall. The day might start out cloudy south of I-4 particularly and become increasingly 'thick in the overcast'. Rain showers developing from quite close to the Beach Line corridor and south with time, somewhere from mid-afternoon to sunset and persisting overnight into Friday for the first half of the day. Timing will remain an issue on this guestimate until the Tuesday time frame as model guidance aligns.

MEANWHILE: High pressure will be building South from the Inter-mountain Region into Texas and then shift east slowly, very slowly. Circulation (clockwise) around that high will place Florida in a long-term NW type flow dragging continuous surges of cool to eventually colder air down the spine of the state from Saturday into the following week.

THE LONG AND SHORT OF IT?: There might be some Valentine's Day Blues in the weather department  concerning the lack of blue skies and moist cool air in place. This day might be one of the crummiest days we've seen all winter as well heading into nightfall and into the first portions of Friday. 

Guidance has varied from the scenario just described to much worse as far as rainfall is concerned. Given how far out in time this is though, best to hold back on the confidence game. There is always the possibility that guidance still needs to resolve the Post Blizzard storm situation from the other day, that, as well as any effects the snow covered grounds to the north will have on the strength of post -storm High Pressure systems at lower levels. 

Until snow fall to occur before the boundary ever gets here is resolved, the extent and length of a cool to cold spell is yet to be determined. Although, so far there has been quite a bit of consistency that therein lies the chance this could be the coldest period we've seen all season heading toward this time next week. Don't pack those mukluks,  parkas, gortex face masks, mittens, gloves, hand warmers, muffs,  thermal undies, snow shovels and firewood away just yet.   Ya just nebbbrrrrr know.

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