"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Friday, February 21, 2014

"Chance of Isolated " Strong to Severe Storms Today - Rain Chances into Tuesday

Reflecting on Upcoming Weekend Weather
TODAY: Little change from previous post. A frontal system is now working into the panhandle region with some severe thunderstorm warnings being hoisted in the process. This line will potentially slow down a bit after sunrise and as peak heating commences. A good cloud cover is still a long time coming , though more storms toward the Gulf and over Northwest Florida should begin to spill over their anvil tops in advance of the more organized 'line' across Central Florida by late morning to early afternoon,  which might begin to weaken as it approaches the I-4 .

Further south, better sunlight / heat and instability through the morning to noon hours will build as a portion of the Southern Branch Jet starts to meet up with the Northern Branch rounding the base of the Low/Trough now focused over the Northern Great Lakes, which the approaching front is associated with. 

As the Southernmost Branch approaches so too will upper level divergence over the region building in surface based instability (i.e., Central Florida). Winds could become 'side' shore, or parallel the coast south of I-4 as well rather than remain SW as stronger winds aloft approach. This could add low level convergence coupled with upper level divergence into the mix well ahead (in advance) of the more organized line, and it is that activity IF it can manifest that seems would be the larger threat rather than the line itself. 

Sometime after 2 or 3PM perhaps (?), but showers and multiple pockets of rain and thunder could continue once an area such as this forms if it does. Chances are , the first storm of the day for any one location would be the biggie for that location, but not completely or necessarily so depending on the situation.

SATURDAY: The front should hang up close to Direct Central or just south of there then wash out during this day. Cloud cover will be around and rain chances much lower, though at time it appears will focus near the remaining boundary somewhere over Central Florida and inland though activity that does form will get whisked off toward the east coast .

SUNDAY: Southerly winds once again in advance of the next front referred to in the previous post. Another chance of storms just from the coast inland mainly, and some 'could' be a bit stronger if sea- breeze convergences get into the play. Monday and Tuesday are a bit of the same story as the front moves in but inevitably will have their own unique set of circumstances which is too far out in time for specifics.

BEYOND: Wednesday so far appears to be a dry day , but then...

Potential rain event (at least) coming the 27th time frame.  Going into the first week of March still looks a bit dicey as well, as it appears a bit of a more 'El Nino-ish' looking pattern might be setting up;  for California will be getting some big activity from Central and Maybe Southern Cali around the 27th as well, and after that as well. It's that next big upper level impulse to approach Florida or somewhere over the Southeast between March 3-5th that is still in question.

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