"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Wednesday, July 30, 2014

Showers/Thunder To be Absent North Half of State Today

"Another Depiction of Monday "
TODAY: Post trough across CEntral, depending on what one calls 'the cold front/ that has been advertised will determine where one believes it is located depending on what parameters one chooses and why. Could almost be tempted to say it has washed out while cleaning the state, as higher dew point air remains per the mesoscale page and NWS MLB/ KSC Local Data Integration across the South half of the state as shown here.

With clear skies to the north today suspect a heat trough will form down the spine of the state with a very weak meso-low circulation to form over West Central in General to move toward the ENE late into early evening. Sea Breezes are possible most areas but maybe South Florida. 

Moisture convergence up the east coast combined with outflow and cloud coverage / cloud shadow'd thermal gradient all combine with potential for showers or even a thunder as far north as Cape Canaveral after 6:30pm - 8pm but chances are if not by then the window of opportunity for that are is lost. Better chances will be from Vero Beach and South most areas of the state.

TOMORROW: Similar set up as high pressure ridge from the Four Corners region (aloft) noses across the Northern Gulf and toward Florida. This is where most of the dry air aloft is coming from (except for far north Florida where some continental post frontal dry air might also be an influence) as can be seen from the wind fields at jet stream level. 

The image above is showing a "low' over West Central, the image is for later today. This would be mainly thermally induced combined with the dashed 'trough axis' (also thermally induced) if it is to be at all, though guidance has been showing something similar for two days now; bring the low  if not over Brevard County by later, so that is only an estimation. 

Most activity to be south of the northern most 'orange arrow' today, but by tomorrow expect the activity will be further north., possible as far as I-4 on the east coast, not so much toward the interior until the ridge axis aloft from out west retreats and the pattern breaks down, which will be on Friday.

BEYOND:  Deep SSE flow in place for the next 2-3 day pattern through the weekend. Showers almost anywhere at any time along the east coast except perhaps from midnight - 6AM, but then working inland and toward the west coast by early afternoon.   Again, the tropical system which might be named remains non-threat to land masses at this time, but continues to appear to have some sort of indirect influences  to the overall wind fields which direct storm motion come early next week, but only for a day or so after which point a return to SW Flow aloft returns (as things stand now). 

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