"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Sunday, January 11, 2015

Storms Possible Monday/Thursday But Warm Once Again

January 3rd last year (2014) On a Cold Start to the Day 

TODAY: Coastal showers and warmer as the 70F degree isotherm moved in on the East Central coast during the mid-morning hours. Patchy cloudy cover with a few showers continue widely apart and more could occur most any time, possibly more likely at or near sunset but the better chance favors overall to be dry with an uptick in the late night to overnight hours from the Cape and north. Overnight lows tonight much milder through the 60Fs range after highs today in the mid-upper 70Fs with some spotty low 80Fs. Early morning fog could develop inland but chances look very slim.

MONDAY: Chance of showers and thunderstorms . Guidance insists on some decent winter time CAPE running around 1500-1800 and some bulk shear across Central to North Central Florida. Some thunder could occur as far north is I-10 but instability is further limited there. Temperatures aloft will be quite cold in the mid-levels tomorrow so there is a chance of some good wind gusts in or near storms if we can get any surface based storms well rooted. Lacking will be any discernible low level boundaries and better bulk shear for stronger storms, and the sea breezes this time of year are not conducive to deep convection since ocean temperatures are so cold (except modified well inland). Storms or showers could begin by noon time, though some early morning coastal activity is always possible.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: Fairly mundane pattern returns with a lite to moderate NE breeze 24/7. Though coastal showers are possible most any time the chances are very low . It would be presumptuous to attempt to pinpoint exactly where and/or when this far in advance. Temperatures will be mild though with lows ranging through the 60Fs and highs in the lower to mid 70Fs (inland). In general , fairly 'normal' but overnight lows above normal for this time of year.

THURSDAY: Guidance implies a weak surface circulation near the Loop Current west of Tampa could form as more upper level energy ejects eastward off Southern Mexico toward Florida.  Thursday looks (for now) to be a real
 Scooper :  in and out "Wham Bam but no Mayhem" but not without a definite signature of a wash out or nearly so,  for if not rain and elevated thunder with some gusty wind possible then plain rain with clouds later and little drying possible of wet grounds due to cloud cover. 

At least it won't be cold enough to sleet though with 60Fs and lower 70Fs mostly. Winds aloft on Thursday will be stronger as will bulk shear, but now this day has the opposite problem for stronger storms than Monday will have; that is, lack of low level instability even though temperatures aloft will be fairly cold. 

Thus, neither Monday or Thursday has it 'all together' for a more definite "this screams strong to severe storms' calling. Consider this a whisper and gentle nudge instead. " never can say never but don't tell".

BEYOND: Friday and so forth will be much cooler to  cold  Friday and breezy with a fairly rapid swing of the winds around the N-NNE to NE by mid-day Saturday. Lows appear to be running in the 40Fs range with highs in the general in the lower to mid 60Fs, but it'll be over in a snap. By Sunday it'll be back to status quo of this season.  No 'bitter icy frigid' cold (those below 45F but dare we say anything below 55F fits that description? )  foreseen in the Global (Crystal Ball) Forecast System (GFS) time range beyond day 8.

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