"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Friday, June 15, 2012

Strong Storms Possible Mainly South Central and South Florida Today - Transition

Cape Canaveral Wednesday Early Evening, Storm Approaches
TODAY: Not much change in line of thinking. Below is pictured that the low off the panhandle is joining with a mid level trough off the mid-Atlantic coast to Florida. The low proper will begin to lose organization and open up, but not too quickly. Other wise, the only other features to monitor are a dry slot  in the mid levels which seems could be crossing a portion of South Central this afternoon, holding off storms almost entirely. Indications per short and mid term guidance indicates less energy aloft today, and there is little in coastal convergence along the east coast. Do not expect the east coast sea breeze to be quite as active today since instability is not quite as high as yesterday .  Do not expect the west coast sea breeze to be quite as active either. The only other difference is that temperatures aloft are a bit colder than yesterday. Net result could be something like this:

BLUE is the general location of mid level boundary which will sink slowly south with time.  Green is where showers could occur mid afternoon from of all things, moisture from the NE direction. This moisture approach is also accompanied by instability, as was the case yesterday. Thus, the yellow means we might hear some thunder in that area, since the coldest air aloft is in this location as well. Orange, better chance of storms overall.


Again, purple is in the mid levels. There is a dry slot in there moving toward the same area as well, which is the wrench in today's forecast. Timing for where and when the strongest storms will be is difficult.
 STORMS TODAY: Tough call, sea breeze collision will be hard to come by until far south Florida near Lake Okeechobee, so would expect the strongest storms to be in the red zone, perhaps just inland from the coast, but never say never with boundaries around (synoptic scale ones as shown in the images).  Atmosphere is not as unstable today and there is little in upper level energy compared to yesterday at this same time. It is still a bit early, but all in all with cold air aloft and winds in the upper levels providing lift it might not make all that much difference anyway, seeing as how this is Florida after-all. Air is pretty dry south Florida though, so any storm that can eventually get cranking could reach severe potential from West Palm across to Port Charlotte , somewhere about 20 miles from either coast (orange to red in general). 

Elsewhere, some stronger storms could manifest of short duration working South to South Southeast or Southeast into the red zone. Yet still, in green showers could manifest with a surge of low level moisture later today accompanied by instability as well. Could be some thunder if any of this isolated activity manages to manifest, although not drawn in on the second image for today's 'depiction' since that chance looks to be very low.

BEYOND: Storms again possible South Florida for one more day, but elsewhere ENE winds will pick up on Saturday, decreasing some on Sunday. Chance of a few isolated showers near the coast, mainly from Vero Beach and North through Sunday into Monday. The time frame of Monday through Tuesday and into Wednesday looks very quiet other than some clouds and maybe a shower near the coast around sunrise or so.  Official Summer Begins astronomically speaking around June 22nd. In review of last year, I saw that our Wet Season began almost on the exact same day as the first day of summer, and if the trend in model guidance continues per last night...this year will not be far off the mark with a tidal wave of atmospheric moisture consistently at or above 1.70" inches most of the time from next weekend on out being depicted, working from South to North beginning late week and into the weekend (next weekend).  In comparison, during the winter precipitable water (moisture) seldom exceeds 1" and most often is less than 0.5".

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