"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Tuesday, December 29, 2015

Big Pattern Change To Evolve Away From Warm and Dry

Surf Fishing Tuesday Morning, Cocoa Beach, Florida
TODAY- THURSDAY: Little change of late but for some increasing moisture at times and entrance of a mention of some spotty showers as well from time to time, beginning mainly Wednesday afternoon and beyond into next week. More record warm minimums and afternoon maxes could fall yet still in almost any official reporting location.

FRIDAY: Long awaited frontal boundary eases per 'the latest' (which is subject to change) into Central Florida and holds nearly stationary there from late Friday into Tuesday of next week. Anything even close to such will resulting in much cloudier conditions accompanied by periods of some showers, and at that point the boundary looks like a given. Where it 'sets camp' might still change. 

SUNDAY: So far this appears to be 'the big rain day going into early Monday". The heavier concentration of rainfall totals has shifted a bit north from last post to now being from I-10 South to Central Direct into parts of South Central (instead of further south). 

Also, temperatures are not shown to be as cold as previously advertised! Now, low 60Fs to mid 70Fs rule the roost south of I-4 and mainly 50Fs and 60Fs from I-4 and north. But again, plenty of time to re-evaluate and temperatures not far off the surface are forecast to be pretty any continuous rainfall might result in a huge temperature forecast busts, especially for Sunday/Monday time frame - meaning, it might be much cooler than expected.

GFS shows a REX BLOCK pattern setting up  as seen below. How long such a 'block' if it evolves will last is impossible to say. 

Models almost always try to pull blocking patterns out well before they are truly ready to leave. What that will mean for Florida is little change on the larger synoptic scale but with daily variables in cloud cover and rain chances being determined by when a disturbance passes over head from the west.

Envision disturbances caught up with those winds at 20,000 feet and  passing over Old Mexico, across the Gulf, and toward Florida , perhaps several times in coming days with varying results
 By definition, 'block' implies..'hard to break down'..or in regard to sensible weather, 'little change for a fairly long period of time'.  

Florida is shown to be the truly warmest location in the U.S. during this particular set up... especially south of I-4. Cloud cover might be more often than not.

The GFS has the pattern persisting probably for a good week (which would be normal)...but lifting toward the north. All in all, this would mean no Truly Cold Air as feared would be the case and was being advertised to occur over Florida in the extended by the same model just a few days ago. Will it change back though to colder air? After Day 7 at this rate, anything is possible.

Temperature forecasts look almost identical for several strings of days in row though for mornings in the mid-term..much like this one below showing lows in the lower-mid 60Fs to 70Fs far South Florida as a weak low pressure forms over the western edge of the Gulf Stream near "The Cape" :

IN SUMMARY BEYOND MONDAY: Rains so far appear should be over by Early Monday some time as things stand now...temperatures running through the lower 60Fs to mid 70Fs (colder north of I-4). ...that is...morning lows a bit 'warmer than normal' with afternoon highs around normal going toward this time next week.

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