"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Saturday, December 18, 2010

Was Friday the Warmest Remaining Day in 2010?

Image: Radar at 8AM this morning. Rain is definitely on the way today.

TODAY: A frontal boundary stretches across North Florida and well off to the SW toward the Bay of Campache. Along this boundary will be a least one, disorganized impulse of energy and appendant 'surface low' which will ride along the boundary as it sinks into Central Florida during the day. The low pressure areas are barely of closed circulation and are not even evident in the mid-levels, meaning they are not strong enough to generate any strong, organized severe weather or even thunderstorms for the most part when push comes to shove. However, they are transporting plentiful moisture with them as the traverse the boundary and cross Central and South Florida all day and thunder aloft is not out of the question.

As we can see by the included image, and as I've observed in the past two hours, precipitation is quickly spreading from WSW to ENE across the state, and such will continue to be the pattern today. Per latest model guidance, the worst of the rains should occur between 11am - 6pm, ending from west to east, with the east coast from Titusville to Miami the last to clear of actual rain, which could be well toward midnight if not after that time tonight.

Otherwise, and to answer the question in today post title, yes, I do believe yesterday was the warmest remaining day to 2011. Today will not be as warm solely by nature of the cloud cover and either evaporative cooling due to imminent rainfall approaching or actual rain itself dragging cool air down from aloft. Winds along the A1A corridor could maintain a slight S-SSE component for the majority of the day ahead of the low pressure bubbles, which is off the cooled ocean waters which is yet another reason to keep today's high temperatures held at bay and into the mid-upper 60s. The temperature could reach the low 70s from South Brevard and points south toward Miami , but don't think it will be as warm there as yesterday either.

TONIGHT-SUNDAY: The rain chances will wane greatly from west to east across the peninsula after dark, with a continued chance of a sprinkle on going until near sunrise along the barrier islands and south toward Ft. Pierce and West Palm Beach. I see the forecast on The Weather Channel and on local news channels for tomorrow advertising bright and sunny skies, but I'm not so sure that will be the case. Hope so though. The wind behind the front which won't be clearing Central Florida until sometime around the 4-8am time frame will initially be NNW but fairly quickly gain a more northerly component, which by the way along Central and South Brevard is 'on-shore' over the Barrier Islands and near Ft. Pierce. Lingering moisture behind the boundary could continue to generate mainly low clouds along the coast and south Florida for at least the first half of the day, but it will be rain free. As such, don't be surprised to see remaining clouds east of an Orlando to Lake Okeechobee to near Miami-Dade until at least noon time (if not later) on Sunday with high temperatures in the mid-60s. On the other hand, I've outlined a pessimistic scenario, so no harm on learning toward optimism.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: Very light winds and not so cold temperatures. I'd say "Cool" weather fits the bill with coastal lows in the 50s all locales along the East Coast with mid-upper 40s inland. Highs in the mid-upper 60s with some 70s over extreme SE Florida and the Keys under mostly sunny sky conditions.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: Another spoke of energy will rotate around the low pressure area that will have moved off our coast tonight and have shifted NNE-NE during the early portion of the week. This "spoke", or frontal boundary, will likely go through 'dry' of rainfall, but be accompanied by some low-mid level clouds. This will be very close to being a 'back-door' front as it will be approaching from the N-NNE, swiping down the state with no foreboding windshifts or big pressure falls ahead of it. Any rainfall from this system will be limited to the immediate US-1 to A1A corridor from JAX to Miami. No big temperature falls from this system either as we will remain in generally 'cool' conditions after its passage.

TEMPERATURE RECAP FOR THE REMAINDER OF 2010: Not seeing any big cool downs through the remainder of the year, minus a more notable one between Christmas and New Years. For the most part, coastal lows in the 50s and highs in the 60s. Inland lows and toward the west side of the state in the 40s. Next best chance of rainfall after today and very early Sunday will be Christmas Day and again near New Year's Day.

CHRISTMAS DAY: Just a preempt forecast, seeing as how this is still a week away. Looks like Christmas Day could very well end up being very similar to today. The synoptic situation won't be quite the same, but the results will all come out the other end with similarities in regards to cloud coverage, rain chances, and temperature ranges.

NEW YEARS DAY: Wouldn't you know it, it's all in the timing, and if I learned anything from my Junior High Science Fair project, fronts at this time of year come through under 'normal circumstances' every 5-7 days. In this year's case, it looks closer to 6 as another front could go through with another rain chance on New Year's Day. Of course, this is pure speculation at this point. But maybe 35 years later, I can verify my Science Fair Project (tongue in cheek).

No comments: