"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Saturday, October 31, 2009

Total October Precipitation For Cape Canaveral

Here is the total precipitation for my location in Cape Canaveral as recorded to the CoCoRaHS platform. We totaled 0.99", but total up all the traces and that just might give us an inch. This update sent remotely. Have a Happy And Safe Halloween.

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No Tricks or Treats For Today

Pictured above is "Lola" as a little kitten. My how things change. If you missed it she was featured one night during "Cantore and Steele"

Meteorological Halloween (a trick and treat) came yesterday to east central Florida in the form of an anomalous 'boundary' of sorts, self proclaiming to be a back door cold front. Like a fading ripple in a pond, it made it about as far west (from the east) to the center of the state, even though by that time any active weather associated with it had gone to the weather graveyard in the sky...leaving only remnant ashes (clouds). Well that boundary is gone now and the prevalent pattern of late will once again set camp over most all of peninsular Florida today. And what, pray tell, does that exactly mean?

It means back to the warmer than normal temperatures(yesterday east central Florida spent most of the day under cloud cover and resultant cooler temperatures) , sparse cloud coverage, and nary even a rain shower to be found. I admit though, that yesterday's little "Treat" of 0.1" was our early Halloween Trick...but if I had relied more on the NAM it would have come to no surprise. It wasn't until it was almost too late that the RUC model fell in line with it, and by that time the writing was on the wall, or radar!

Given the NAM's track record of late for this area, and in combination with the latest RUC output and combined blend of the two equates to what supposedly should be a no-brainer for today, with no Tricks or Treats anticipated.

Today: For all of the residents here, and if you are a local follower to this writing this will apply...look for a low end partly cloud sky (2/10 coverage) with a light easterly winds and rain free conditions throughout the day. The mid-levels have dried out a smidge in the wake of yesterday's boundary passage as the low level high center gets shoved further east into the Atlantic by the approaching trough which passed infamous havoc in the Shreveport area the other day (if you watched The Weather Channel you'd think no other place on earth had any weather that day as a result of the trough). Actually, I'm writing much ado about nothing this morning but what does one do to make uneventful weather interesting?

Mid-Long Term: The aforementioned trough/front will enter the picture on Sunday, but have a very difficult time remaining fused at all levels, thus it will spread itself thin right across the center of the state with a slow to non-existant foreward motion. There will be only minimal dynamics associated with the boundary...but enough pooled moisture and meager instability could give rise to some showers in the more blessed locations...but we have yet another day to catch up on these events as things unfold during the course of today and tonight.

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Friday, October 30, 2009

Hello High Speed Dirt Followers

If you are reading this it hopefully means that you have been invited to share with me your enthusiasm and interest in weather. Either by how weather affects your life in the course of your daily routine or simply by the mere fact that you really dig severe weather such as hurricanes, tornadoes, and severe thunderstorms. You like to take video of them, photograph them, and/or share your scores with friends via YouTube or a publisher in the various realms of the media.

If you were not 'invited', well then even better! Please join and help me along in this wildly continuous adventure we call weather. Share your thoughts and if you need a specific forecast for a certain place or time...send the request my way. Of course this is not official National Weather Service (service), but I have been qualified through both the Air Force and The National Weather Service to forecast. You can just expect my little 'slant' if there needs to be.

Share this blog with your friends if you find it interesting and let's have fun. I'm still in the infantile stages of blog development, so any suggestions or hints is always appreciated.

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We Are Squeezing Water Out of a Rock

(current radar depiction, forecast precip for this time, forecasted moisture at 850mb, and 700mb high center of us)

As I type today's entry it is actually 'raining' if you can call it that. The above images show the actual radar depiction, the RUC model's forecasted precipitation areas for this time, the 850mb moisture forecast, and the 700mb high pressure center placement. Based on the accuracy of the current situation of such features at this time, today's forecast is based on the RUC (Rapid Update Cycle) for today's short term outlook.

...and given all of the above, it looks like we could see more of the same today in a VERY widely scattered fashion, mostly from coastal Central Brevard up toward Ocala. Don't think it will be all that warm today with likely increased cloud coverage and light onshore flow (coming in off the ocean). Sweet! Nothing exciting, but sure beats the cloudless sky and glaring sunshine we had yesterday. As you can see by the 700mb high pressure placement, we are indeed forecasted to be wearing the high pressure center (per yesterday's "Eye of the High" forecast).

So how can we be getting rain?

The surface high pressure is located well to the north along the mid-Atlantic coast. The clockwise flow around that feature is shoving Atlantic moisture in underneath the 700 mb high pressure center which is almost trapping the moisture to the surface and inducing low topped convection.

Due to the high's presence, I do not believe that showers will be able to develop vertical extent worthy of thunder. Only exception might be near Ocala later in the day where there could be some extra low level upward forcing due to sea breeze convergences, however that possibility is yet even below the low end on the scale.

Still looking to see a more pronounced change late in the weekend into very early next week just in time for daylight savings time to end. The change will be gradual and of little consequence other than to bring temperatures back down to normal values.

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Thursday, October 29, 2009

Eye of the High

(altocumulus clouds made for a nice sunset)
...the title says it all, because that's where we are. Smack dab in the center of a vertically stacked high pressure system. If there was ever a day we would NOT see storms despite a somewhat moist airmass it would be today!. I really hope "Ma Nature" proves me wrong today, I really do.

As expected, the high over the Western Atlantic has retrograded at the mid-upper levels and Florida is wearing it like a baseball cap. At the surface the ridge axis extends from the center located over the mid-Atlantic region down the US East Coast. So it's "High pressure, high pressure, everywhere you look". It's a totally different story as one heads west though into the Mississippi Valley and the Southern and Central Plains where severe weather abounds (lucky dogs). But we have one thing going for us, and I hope you'll agree, and that thing is 'warmth'!...Ahhhh. Western Nebraska and Southeast Wyoming are getting dumped on by is the Denver, Colorado area.

So when will things get fun around here? Good question. When you know, please fill me in because I don't see anything remotely "interesting" here in like..'forever'. Don't get me wrong, there might be some changes in store for us as we go into the weekend and early next week, but at this time those changes won't be in the 'active weather' category. Just maybe a slight cool down. Well, considering we have been near record high temperatures the past few days, that sort of change would be inevitable.

So for today, honestly I didn't pry very hard into looking for an excuse as to why it could rain today, despite what I'm hearing on The Weather Channel this morning (as I type)...I just don't see an excuse for ANYTHING today...(shrug)

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Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Launch of ARES 1-X As Shot From Cape Canaveral

The video associated with this launch is available on You Tube

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Last Gasp Today At Rain

(in celebration of the potential ARES 1-X Launch today I posted this photo)

Surprise surprise, it rained last night and we even got a tiny bit of the flash-boom stuff, but nothing to write home about (or barely in the blog). I would consider that event a 'bust' on my forecast checklist as I didn't see a chance in blue blazes anything would happen yesterday (granted it didn't happen until well after dark).

Today: Strong high pressure is centered over the Western Atlantic and currently Florida is on the western edge of this system. A very deep trough is entrenched over the west half of the country which will dig even deeper as the high retrogrades west and becomes entrenched directly overhead by late Thursday. Until the high pressure is firmly overhead I think portions of the state have a shot at rain again today. But for east central Florida or any coastal community on either coast it's going to have to be before 4pm. Westerly steering currents (from west to east) currently in place will weaken as the high builds in and a sea breeze may form as well by mid afternoon on both coasts as it does so. Once that occurs the chances for rain along the coasts is slim to none.

Tomorrow: High pressure and subsidence will be the words for the day. A stabilized air mass under high pressure and drier air will reign supreme, squelching all chances of rain for about everywhere on the peninsula. The high will be directly overhead at least into the weekend. So enjoy the dry weather if you're so inclined to like nice weather (frown). By the way, Melbourne tied a record high temperature yesterday, and given they don't feel the impact of a sea breeze too soon, may even break the record high today.

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Tuesday, October 27, 2009

Sweet Summer Has Made A Late Season Return

(My cat got to this poor guy this morning. I'm releasing him back to freedom. Click to enlarge)

Man it's nice outside today. Nice and breezy, warm, with a chance of they say. I'm not buying into the last part all so much though. Looks like it will be almost like one of a type of summer day pattern. The type of day where the wind is off the ocean all day, lots of high level clouds, and low chance of thunderstorms along the coast. And such it is today.

A weakly defined 'warm front' lies draped across North/Central Florida which is pushing north and basically damping the last ripple of a series in the water from a dropped pebble. Its just sort of rippling and dying to become a non-entity by later today. In the meantime, a similarly weak cool front extends North/South across the central panhandle. It is by that boundary that all the weather will happen today.

The air mass over east central Florida this morning has moistened considerably since past days, but instability is highly lacking as is any low level forcing or convergence. We won't have the usual sea-breeze convergences today...and with no upper level triggers to manifest themselves it appears that what we see now is pretty much what we get for the rest of the day...given some variability in the cloud cover..and perhaps a very light shower..I just don't see cause for alarm today (as much as I'd like to be an alarmist). Let's face it, nice weather is nice, but change is bring on the storms!

Still don't see much reason to set the umbrella by the door for preparations tomorrow as there really won't be much change. We will remain entrenched in a sort of bland, duck soupy air mass which I suppose beats Cream of Mushroom...but without the spices and heating the air is just going to sort of blow around and not do much. Hopefully, I'm wrong...only tomorrow will tell.

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Monday, October 26, 2009

A Rehash Of Saturday's Post (so click me)

(the 'dayz' of summer)

Supposedly, if you click on the title of today's post it will take you to Saturday's. Good reason for that and it's no accident; that post was actually pretty accurate and depicted the current "sitch". No "tors" or "flangs" (flash-bangs). I like "bash" better (bang-flash)...problem is that's not in the correct eventful order for a "cg" (cloud to ground lightning). ROFLMFAO (ad naseum)!!!
If you read Saturday's post you'll know what I just said in the preceding sentences.

The front as discussed on Saturday is indeed lurking awkwardly off the coast aligned somewhat along the Gulf Stream and up the coast off East Central Georgia. It actually exists in our area as an inverted trough running from SSW to NE across the vicinity. Being as such, convergence along this boundary is non-existant and moisture at the necessary atmospheric levels is still lacking. Hence, I'm going to stick with my six-shooter and fire a round of "no storms today" to the Supercell Death Squad, or as what would be known in the Storm Chaser realms as those suffering from SDS (Supercell Deprivation Syndrome). About the only thing we have going for us today is heat, but the coast won't see that either due to an onshore flow (wind direction) component.

I really don't see anything very exciting happening from the meteorological perspective until maybe Wednesday, and I'm not leaving much credence to the mid-range model guidance at this point. My best 'guess' is that we're going to have to wait until the next frontal system approaches which will not only enhance some deep, low level flow, but also increase the moisture throughout the layer to appreciable values. And that event is questionable. I know what the models are saying for when and where all this is to take place, but I don't believe it..and until I have a resource to trust from which to base a forecast on...I'll say the closest is the GFS model.

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Sunday, October 25, 2009

"Flat" Day Ahead

A hand, human liver and a brain make for a lucious holiday feast at last night's holiday party put on by a storm chaser

Normally when one hears such words in these parts the first thought is "Oh,, the waves are flat. No good surfing"...but in this case it means "no 'good' weather". We will have weather today...the kind that's mostly dry with occasional bouts of clouds and comfortable temperatures. A moderate ENE-NE wind might develop by mid-afternoon making the coast feel a tad cooler.

The models are all in very close agreement with each other, including the fact that they are putting the edge of rain right on Cape Canaveral; however, I believe that area depicted will manifest itself as dense low to mid level clouds off and on throughout the day mainly right along the coastal communities. All models also depict an inverted trough axis extending from just off Miami and off shore up the coast. It almost looks like this would actually be a manifestation of the Gulf Stream more than anything else.

In either case, the effect is the same. This pattern will hold tight for a good 2 days so until things change there may actually be very little worth writing about. Temperatures will be around normal with no extremes. Just typical early fall stuff out there...demanding that folks have something else to talk about besides the weather. Guess that means I'll be keeping my mouth shut for awhile.

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Saturday, October 24, 2009

Not An Altogether Ageostrophic Day

Above photo: shown is a storm chaser's car somewhere near Trinidad, NM


"sitch" - situation, like the syoptic sitch is heavy duty we might be in for a major storm

"siggy" - significant, like there's a 'siggy' chance of tors today

"tors" - tornadoes

"The sitch is bad, there's a siggy chance of tors today. Could be baseballs and flangs too."

Things are progressing as expected from the meteorological side of life. I think the other side of my life is less predictable than the weather. But here's the "sitch". A front lies NNE-SSW bisecting the Florida Panhandle this morning. The front will progress eastward and be nearly on top of Brevard County by around 2pm. Meanwhile, a weak low pressure 'area' is approaching SE Florida, with arrival there about the same time.

Models: Today's forecast is based on a blend of the NAM, RUC, and GFS as they are all in relatively close agreement. Although not exact in nature in the short term, the end result is almost identical by most synoptic perspectives. Thus, other than localized affects and knowing exactly where/when it will rain, today really isn't too hard despite all the things that are going on. Seems weird doesn't it? The best way to approach today is with a broad-brush. It's impossible to know exactly when / where it will rain without the luxury of short-term or rather NOWCASTS. With little in dynamics and not so cool air aloft the atmosphere is pretty much ageostrophic, meaning not too good a chance of any significant storms which seems weird considering everything that's going on.

Expect the front to progress as forecast toward East Central Florida during the day but with not much associated action with it. The upper levels are too dry but last I saw our lower levels in the immediate area have changed SIGNIFICANTLY since the time that front went through last week...for the first time. So that does leave a bit of a challenge. We definitely will have more moisture to work with, but that low approaching SE Fl. will not affect us at all. I expect that what will happen is that it will either be absorbed by the front or linger around SE Fl. for a day or two. Either way the outcome is the same. The low will provide additional moisture to the front which will stream NNE into Central Florida later in the day. Believe it or not, it's not TOO likely to rain until after 2pm today with the greater likelihood being sometime after 6pm. The west side of the state might be oh so unfortunate to not see anything from this set-up as they will be behind all the action (the front). But that won't last too long, maybe a day or two.

The front should push through sometime near 8pm then linger very near by for at least a day but far enough east to put us in a NNE wind (YUCCH). Either the same low or a new one will form along it and rotate NE up the SE U.S. coast...with us just a smidge behind the boundary, yet close enough to still see a chance of rain. Once the low gets into the area around N. Carolina the front will retrograde to the NW and put all of Central Florida into a moist SSW regime for at least two days.

While we sit in this regime yet another in the series of disturbances which will be evolving in this very progressive pattern will be entering the lower Mississippi Valley and approach Florida. I'm not going to go any further at this point as we have enough to deal with on our plate with what's at hand to be concerned with 3-4 days from now. Agreed?

Not sure how the NE U.S. will fare in this set-up as I honestly forgot to look. I have interests up there and like to keep an eyeball out to see what kind of atmosphere they are toodling around in too! And you might too, so why the heck not give that area a plug now and then. I have a feeling they are going to get wet big time though. This was mentioned several days ago as a matter of fact when I first mentioned that we were entering a very active pattern as far as the entire U.S. is concerned (a progressive pattern). But that won't happen until that aforementioned low rides further up the coast. At least not in a more "siggy" fashion.

More on locally though. I'm afraid some of the 'worst' (wettest) of the weather may occur right around sunset. The opt out on this is if we get some good rains earlier that stabilizes the atmosphere. I think initially when the front goes thru the atmosphere will indeed have been stabilized, but with time as it lingers about it will revamp sometime tomorrow. We can leave that for another blog. Lots of bases to cover today. Look for a chance of rain from 2pm and after with the greatest chance from 4-9pm. There...that about sums it up.

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Friday, October 23, 2009

Are We Home Yet?

The first storm pictures I ever took as a 12 year old lay above
The answer to that question is as expected a resounding NO. Meaning, we're not home to any siggy rain or storms and more of the same. I'm starting to sound and feel like a broken record. And why do they say that anyway. Wouldn't it be the record player that's broken? A broken record can't make any sound to sound like. Enough of the philosophy lesson, time to get down to the meteorology of the moment.
As expected, the high pressure system that had originally brought us all the cool air (remember that?) has moved on well into the Atlantic. As a result, we will receive return flow out of the southeast today with no dynamics and drier air aloft. However, things look a fraction of a air better today for a possible morning shower near the coast that would be very low topped and whimpy, whimpy, whimpy.

Meanwhile, the mean cold front will be approaching western Florida but will likely never make it there as it's main energy source will be gyration off to the NNE and stretching the front as if on a torture stretcher. Torture for us is what it is. There still appears that lower pressure and a big puddle of moisture will approach southeast Florida during the course of the day but never reach here until at least overnight. I don't think there will ever be a collision of forces as the front will be long gone. Really not much to say for today despite how hard I've tried. I would give today being just short of a nil chance of rain, but there is that remote chance so as I begrudgingly hang my head I might just maybe. But don't sweat it.
In fact, it could be late Sunday when any real chance materializes. I'd have to say that the highlight for the next few days will be nice warm temperatures. But I wouldn't lather up the sunscreen just yet, as there may be periods of clouds just like yesterday. I'm too tired to write much more this morning. It's hard to dig up material when there's nothing to write about anyway. I think I hear the weekend knocking...gotta go answer the door.
On another note, I added a new video over there to the right. The top one. I was working all night to swap in the right audio and finally got it there but wouldn't you know that YouTube had some other trick up its sleeve and took it from me without asking. So I kept trying to get audio for it, but if it wasn't one thing it was another so I finally gave up and determined that YouTube is "broken" right now. So if you happen to watch it, the accompaniment is not of my choosing but rather the system's.

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Thursday, October 22, 2009

Pulled An All Nighter in Lieu of Another Day Of......

Looking straight up a palm and Into the darkness

Click to enlarge these...they're kind of interesting actually.

Yawn....stayed up all night working on a silly little YouTube video slide show called "Bad Sky". I know, that title has potential for many..uh hem.."comments" shall we say? Check it out if you want. If you're reading this from the blog itself you can watch a mini version of it without even leaving the page from the video column. Anyway, after finishing up I decided to go outside and take some photos in total darkness just for kicks to see what would happen and saw that little fellow you see above too. It actually was totally green, but something happened in the picture taking process I guess. Only got one in before it took off. He/she was near the ceiling of the porch; so, I was standing on a beach chair just to get close enough. Enough of the jibber-jabber, so what's up with the weather?

As it is, I just happened to check that out too :-). Today looks to be the beginning of the big lull before the 'storm' so to speak on Saturday. As if what we've had so far hasn't been "lull" gets worse before it gets better. But in a sense it will be better in that I think that by tonight the strong east wind that's been right here on the beach will finally let up. Yes, believe it or not if you're any further than about 1 mile from the beach it's like a completely different day. I was in Titusville yesterday and it was like, "where's the wind?". Then I crossed the bridges and got to the Port entrance and it was , "oh, here it is...Drat!"...

So again, today might be a little more calm than yesterday, and so far it looks like tomorrow will be much the same. High pressure will remain the key player yet again today in this seemingly endless parade of blahsville days. We picked up almost 0.2" here yesterday...woo hoo. But it's something anyway. Not so sure that will happen again today though. At least yesterday the models were forecasting it to some degree to happen...but not today, at least not as of last nights run. Tomorrow is supposed to be the same. The difference is that the high pressure is going to move off to the east to leave plenty of room for a front (Mother Goose and her hatchlings of storms) that will come in almost directly from the west and be knocking at the door around midnight Friday/Saturday.

Sure enough, the cap if you could even call it that is "off the charts" this morning LITERALLY...LOL. The dewpoint line on the sounding goes off to the left and separates from the ambient air temperature into no man's land. Almost looks ridiculous and to even say there will be anything beyond some clouds is giving it credence. But things can change..that's just how it was at..hmm..let me look..oh, 25 minutes ago. Geesh. High confidence in forecast today until around sunset because then almost anything can happen..but again..moderately high confidence there will be nada based on the models.

For the forecast I'm sticking with the NAM. It is very consistent with yesterday's presentation as far as where highs and lows and troughs and ridges will be. The only difference is that the intensity of all the aforementioned is about 1/4 of what yesterday's calling was. And this comes more in line with the GFS so heck why not? In essence, despite their overall presentations the result should be about the same. So that means nothing today or Friday. The wind will start to let up along the coast and start to shift to a more SE direction from it's current directly east heading. Enough is enough. Let's get to Saturday.

Saturday. Now the tables turn BIG time. Still to be a weak low bubble over S. Florida with the ridge completely out of the picture further east with a steep,sharp trough/front approaching from the Gulf (Mother Goose). The Tampa area will be first to feel the pinch from the front, but we have another game going on over here to due to that low. In fact, for the most part that low is the major player. Thus, Saturday could be wet. Precipitation is forecast to have commenced by sunrise and is depicted into Sunday morning which might be a bit overdone. However, the low will draw in moisture along with it like the Pied Piper and his entourage of rats. We could be hearing thunder on fact I'd be will to give the possibility a thumb's-up (yes...that's just one thumb).
So, the Pied Piper will come head on with the Mother Goose and kursplash..rain across the boards Saturday afternoon. I'd be surprised if the NWS doesn't get toward a 60 percent chance before all is said and done. Will be interesting.

Should I go beyond Saturday or leave that as a surprise? I'll give you a won't need your galoshes (that doesn't reveal much does it?). Seriously's dullsville beyond belief. Just probably really nice for at least 2 days. It's beyond the scope of this blog unless I want to get into a novel to cover the next period so cutting it off with that.

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Wednesday, October 21, 2009

No Change, No Fun

Don't forget to check out the new videos to the right. They won't take you from this page.

Hey, chasing is what is all about. Even the comics think so!

Blah ad naseum. Another day of the same old song and dance, which really is pretty nice except it is kind of breezy along the coast. But other than that not much to say for today nor tomorrow as far as that goes. The first hints of changes to come is Friday when surface winds will begin to veer toward the southeast ushering slightly warmer yet ocean surface cooled air. Regardless, late Friday into Saturday will be warmer, especially Saturday. After that there are 2, count em 2, trains of thought.

1) a front will pass thru with little fanfare other than a wind shift and drier air; or

2) it's a return to the rainy season. As the high over us now moves out a low is forecasted to form over Cuba and move north to join the impinging front. In fact, the mess from the south is to be worse than the frontal activity. But the whole ca bash runs together over Central and South Florida...especially the east half on late Sunday and all of Monday. Monday might be downright raincoat weather all day if this scenario plays out.

For now I'm favoring the first one though as the second option is a new one way out of the trends of current and of past model runs. So I'm following the golden rule which is "stick with consistency until you can see the whites of its eyes".

And while we're at it, it seems that a wide area of the country is going to be in the offing for at least some 'weather' for a while now. In fact. it looks like a very progressive mean-five-wave pattern over the Northern Hemisphere is setting up nicely, meaning lots of changeable weather across the Plains, the Southeast, and up the eastern seaboard particularly from VA to NY. And the tropics are going to start humming in the Eastern Atlantic (a big perhaps). So we have a HUGE mixed bag of elements to focus on. The evolution is currently in progress in the S. Plains this late evening(early morning if one is on the East Coast). I'm interested to see what will come out of all this in the coming several weeks if not longer across the aforementioned areas, and what type of weather everyone will be experiencing.

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Tuesday, October 20, 2009

Early American Tornadoes 1586-1870

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4 Words For The Day - Coastal Blahs/Future Hopes

Photo above of the sun blocked by a palm and the other looks like some version of a Bird of Paradise
Recommend clicking to enlarge.

This won't be a hard one so I'm leaving it brief. Just look outside. See those clouds if you're along the east coast...probably fewer further west too? Well..that's today. Anywhere from partly cloudy to mostly cloudy with only mid-lower level clouds, mostly cumulus and stratocumulus will be the rule of the day with a slight chance of a barely detectable sprinkle possible about anytime, although attm (at this time) it looks most likely to occur between 1-3pm and again around dark.
The wind will become a prevailing easterly breeze all day leaving the coast the coolest area. In fact, with all the clouds along the coast temperatures probably won't be much warmer than yesterday with a high in the 79-82 degree range.

Okay, that's the Coastal Blah part. Now for the fun Future Hopes.
Those hopes involve, if you can believe it, the tropics. There are hints there could be development of a system anywhere between the western tip of Cuba to Puerto Rico along a 200 mile wide swath anytime between Friday and for a good 10 days after that! So keep your eyeballs pealed open at all times and do not, I repeat, hit the coffins just yet for a sustained period because we must be watching at all times. L:-).

Already two separate models are either showing development off the western tip of Cuba with a TS or perhaps a good old 'cane moving toward Miami on or around day 10 while another further out is showing a system near Puerttthhco in about 2 weeks.

In other words, about anything can happen. But truth be told, it's going to be a battle between how far south the southern jet stream branch makes it and how strong the pseudo-Bermuda High will be. So there are so many unknowns it's ridiculous. IMHO..the next 5 days will reveal to us whether things will get active or not. If the stream gets too far south with this next approaching south...then we'll have to wait about a week for the area to recover we could be talking about maybe around the 25th when another chance comes around.
For today...enjoy (how profound).

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Monday, October 19, 2009

Warming To Begin

(above: a "Bird of Paradise")

Looks like the onshore flow has begun with temperatures now on a fairly rapid moderating trend. As of 2am the temperature is 58F here, but much colder inland and most other locales further from the coast the whole way down to Lake Okeechobee or even Naples.

Today, with the onshore flow and partly cloudy sky we should warm to around 76 degrees. Then tonight should only get down to about 65. Each day will be successively about 3-4 degrees warmer on both ends with a very slight chance of east coast showers under continued easterly flow, but no thunderstorms and not much accumulation (if any even occurs).

By Friday and into the weekend an approaching front will bring increasing chances or even a thunderstorm, but the front should barely slide through. In the long range I'm watching for the possibilities of remnant Hurricane Rick to bring in a good chance of storms around next weekend, but that is so far off it's strictly optimistic speculation at this point.

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Sunday, October 18, 2009

Cool and Dry One for Sunday

The mouse mat for paws with the mouse pointing to our next system ;- )
Looks like the 850mb trough has just cleared the area setting up for the full fledged "Cold" Blast to move in todaywith a low temperature this Sunday morning around 53 and a high of about 72.
The good news is, is that it will be very short lived. By Monday morning the winds will have started to swing around to the NE giving the immediate east coast a good warming with a low near 59-62...and a high near 77 and the trend will continue. The only fly in the ointment is that with the wind shift may come coastal showers...but only very light. That is generous too...but the possibliy will exist even more so Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.

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Wednesday, October 14, 2009

Stephen Sponsler (
High Speed Dirt Blog:
Cape Canaveral, FL \/

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Wednesday, October 7, 2009

Heat Is The Word Of The Day

(above photos: seagulls and beachgoers)
The title of today's post might be a little misleading for those living along the coast. If the sea breeze kicks in like it did yesterday by 1pm then the immediate coast shouldn't be any warmer than it's been the past week. It's the inland areas that will feel the pinch today, tomorrow, Friday, Saturday, naseum....with the high temperature flirting with near record levels, which really isn't saying all THAT much considering we just finished summer, and we're pretty used to the heat anyway. But just as a CYA...if we don't get the sea breeze expect a high around 94, but again...I think we'll get one that will penetrate no further west than between US1 and I-95.

Well actually, the coast could get pretty darned hot too on Saturday. All this because we have stacked high pressure centers over the state creating some tremendous subsidence and compressional heating. However, the high at the lower levels should start to shift off to the east during the course of the day which will allow the diurnally driven sea breeze to develop. The front that was across north central portions of the state yesterday has all but died a painless's tail end waved good bye last night right at sunset as cloud cover started to clear and shower/storm activity developed down by Lake Okeechobee.

Looks like that will be about the only area to see precipitation today as well..if even that. Overall, it looks like a dry one across the boards. I'm not even going to give potential sea breeze / land breeze developing storms a plug on this one, as dry air aloft has really moved in and the possibility simply does not exist. At least not currently. Saturday might be the hot one right along the coast though as another front will be trying to impinge on home territory and the high pressure center will be well off to the ENE by a couple hundred miles at least, thus we could end up being minus a sea breeze.

As suspected yesterday, despite what the one model was advertising as far as a frontal passage is concerned does not appear to be a reality; however, it does appear that we will see a wind shift for 36-48 hours to the NE and ENE as high pressure sneaks in from the west by early next week, but that will be short-lived as another series in the train of frontal systems approaches and the veer on around to the south...none of which will cool us least not in the short to mid term.

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Tuesday, October 6, 2009

Full Fledged Summer is Back With a Vegeance

The frontal system that was in North Florida yesterday has moved a little further south and will make it to a Tampa to Cocoa Beach line before washing out altogether by mid-late afternoon. It looks like a weak sea breeze should set up by 4pm about the same time that thundershower activity should approach as well. Actually, it looks like our rain chance will be a little earlier today than in our last two little 'events' of the past week. It could be as soon as 3pm...or at least there will be activity spreading eastward reaching the coast from Daytona and points south after 2:30pm...with the greatest possible impact between 4:30pm - 7pm. It will be a hot one today..but even hotter tomorrow so hold on to your sunscreen and iced tea.

All in all, storm activity does not appear that it will be especially strong due to warm air aloft, but that air was there yesterday and we still squeezed out some off shore lightning after 7:30pm...and the potential looks greater today with the boundary so close to the area.

The next front is right on this front's heals, and is currently forecast to shove thru on Thursday. However, some of the latest model runs haven't come in yet so I'm not hanging my hat on that one just yet. It is tempting to though given the very progressive weather pattern the lower 48 is in right now with the upper level westerlies just ripping across the country's mid-section from coast to coast. But we can leave that for tomorrow's post. But for now, it is worth mentioning that if the front does do what it is forecast to per last night's run, then it will be through with no real temperature change but will put a major damper on shower activity for Thursday and Friday..with the weekend seeing return moist southerly flow and showers...could be fun!

Monday, October 5, 2009

Thunderstorms Making A Surprise Come Back?!

(I don't know what kind of bloom this is..but it smells buttery sweet!)
Ah yes...the sun is shining nicely shortly before noon today, and that's a good thing if you want it to rain late today or tonight? That might sound odd, but it's a good thing (for that to occur). With good, unfiltered sunlight, the land mass will heat up nicely today and set up for a sea breeze this afternoon, which earlier was questionable. However, even with the current south winds it has an onshore component out here on the Cape. The big fly in the ointment for today is how much moisture can we work into the 700mb layer..which is still quite profoundly dry. With a better sea breeze we have low level wind convergence with the prevailing SW flow rise to the air at the low levels (convection). Other than the dry slot aloft...we are Good To Go for some 'boom booms' very late today and tonight.

A frontal boundary remains 'dormant' across the extreme northern panhandle at this time, and will remain there until it gets a good push from the next system to move into the Plains which point it will be shoved south by Thursday morning. But in the meantime, other than that little dry slot...we are set up for thunderstorms today through Wednesday..most assuredly (speaking) for Tuesday. Today is just sort of the 'warming up' to the idea period...if the atmosphere will succumb to such thoughts that is.

But for today, model data is all in agreement that it will be the east coast from the Cape and points south along I-95 and points east and around the Big Lake that will have the best chances of a storm. For the Cape area it looks like it will be almost any time is possible after 5pm...well into the night. Doesn't mean it actually will rain, but the potential does exist. So for those lightning photographers this could mean some good news is in the offing for this evening. And in the meantime, pull out the iced tea and sunscreen, coz it's going to be a warm one, especially tomorrow with 90 degree temperatures over most all of central and southern Florida.

About the only effect the front will have either late Wednesday or overnight into Thursday will be to shift the wind around to the northeast and dry out the overall air mass with shower activity restricted to the most southern areas near the Lake. But there are hints that ample moisture might reside regardless for some coastal nocturnal showers, so I'm not jumping on the "all's clear" bandwagon just yet! Stay tuned to your official forecasts for the latest until tomorrow's post.

Sunday, October 4, 2009

Summer Part II Has Arrived (Minus the Storms)

(this pink flower hibiscus was the only one of the batch. All the others are white)

The title for today sums it up. The high temperature has risen to the 90 degree mark for 3 straight days (or very close to it) with no change in sight for the next week. Unfortunately, the ritualistic thunderstorms are not in the offing until at least Thursday. And even then they will be very far and few between. High pressure will hold fast between weak frontal passage attempts and during them as well. Meanwhile, things have picked up in the tropics with two tropical waves and a weakly organized area of low pressure, but I'm not coming out of the coffin for any of this activity unless we see some very significant changes in the upper level pattern down this way. And like our forecast is indicating, no such changes are in in sight.

For now it's back to the A/C morning, noon, and night. Our low last night was 79 degrees. It's cooler inland of course, as it always is during the late night and early morning, but the ocean is still warm and greatly modifying the air in these parts. The air show is now over, and for the most part was pretty uneventful as far as air shows go. Nothing like the good old days at Hill Air Force Base in Utah.

Friday, October 2, 2009

How Much Can One Blurb (Blog) About Blue Sky?

("Bird of Paradise" in Canaveral)
Blue blue blue. That's all one can see when looking upward from Canaveral today. But if you can believe it, it actually rained overnight just to the west of here, in one report over an inch. Yet at 8am there wasn't a trace of it (in the sky) to be seen. I thought I saw something on radar at 6am upon awakening for a short time but figured it was ground clutter. Guess I figured wrong.

In any case, the weather seems to be running on schedule with no more hiccups to occur in the near least thru the weekend. There is a teensy chance of a shower on Sunday but for now I'm forgoing the possibility along the immediate coast. Inland areas seem to have the best chance, and maybe around Tampa Bay later on Sunday. But probably not the 'thundery' type.

All in all, it still looks like an uneventful weekend weather wise..but plenty of events across the country such as the Air Show in Cocoa Beach, a boat show in the Tampa area, the OZtoberfest in Kansas, and the hot air balloon festival in New Mexico which will surely be 'advertised' on The Weather Channel.

Thursday, October 1, 2009

Good News If You Like Nice Weather

(above: precipation totals for my location in Cape Canaveral..4.53")
The title of this morning's post sums it up. It won't be as cool as it was this morning (Cape Canaveral got down to 72 degrees) Friday morning...and we never broke the 70 degree mark as suspected. Just to the west (across the rivers) they did..but not along A1A here. The remainder of today and into the weekend will be characterized by a slight warming trend and dry weather.

Originally it was thought that yet another cold front would enter our region very late Friday which would affect the central portions of the state through Saturday, but things have changed. It now appears the parent low pressure system now near NW Missouri will loiter to the north and move into the Great Lakes while the appending cold front will elongate NE to SW and never make it here, very typical for this time of year. So the cool mornings will soon be a faded memory for what now appears a solid week, with little to no chance of rain.

A slight onshore wind regime along the east coast will moderate morning low and afternoon high temperatures, but inland areas will not receive (or really notice) this. They will be cooler in the mornings and warmer in the afternoons. In fact, along the east coast there will only be about a 10 degree temperature difference between early morning to mid afternoon temperatures by tomorrow and continuing into next week.

So all in all, it looks like a nice weekend for an air show, a boat show, or a day at the beach or the attractions.

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