Image: Panoramic view from the porch as rain showers approach from the south, paralleling the east Florida coast and crossing mainly the barrier islands.
SYNOPSIS: Weak low level forcing and a moisture flux divergence max exists right as I type over the eastern Cape south to Patrick Air Force Base over the barrier islands and brushing the US1 corridor as well. Showers are generating along the southern edge of greatest forcing near Sebastian inlet and passing mainly offshore, but making a brush with the Aloha County of Brevard.
Elsewhere, the storm system / cold front reponsible for multiple tornado reports (8) on mainly Lousiana and Mississippi is approaching the Florida Panhandle today as high pressure centered east of Florida continues to paddle further out into the great blue sea and away from the state.
As a result, surface and steering winds just above the surface will swing ever so slowly more torward the S-SSW today. Rain showers will continue to impact the barrier islands for the most part, but other parts of East Brevard are seeing the H20 as well falling from the moisture laden but somewhat whimpy clouds of little vertical extent just overhead.
TODAY: It is raining right now at my place at 9:05am, and has been off and on since daybreak. Most areas, like 90% of the county is not getting rain, and from a state perspective only about 3 percent of the entire state is getting rain....thus, if it is raining where you are now, trust me, that is not the case for the vast majority. As a matter of fact, the sky is almost down right nearly clear south of a line running from Sebastian Inlet to Sarasota.
Expect morning rains to continue right at the coast until noon time, then it gets tricky. The RUC model has been becoming more aggressive with not only increasing the rainfall, but also extending out in time how long it will last. AND, as of now and according to the last run, it' s not even supposed to be raining here yet ...not until 11am.\ (according to it). On the other hand, last night's mid-range models all showed the rain will end..and in fact, it has here right now. They show all rain to be over the remainder of daylight hours. I'm siding with that resolvement and believing that all areas will be good to go before noon with warmer temperatures by early afternoon in those areas with little to zero cloud coverage which e will be just about everywhere.
Foks between US1 - I95 and over toward Orlando should remain dry for the most part, as well as though over all of South Florida until later this afternoon at least (more likely to see rain down there over night tonight though, and very little of it at best).
Today will be the warmest day we will see on average for possibly well into December. So man your battle stations, we are going to be at war with Old Man Winter (albeit in a much sub-dued state) beginning sunset Wednesday and through the weekend. It won't be any colder though than what it was last time we got kind of 'cool' over 10 days ago though.
TONIGHT: Rain chances increase in areal coverage over the entire state as the front approaches, but any significant accumulations should be north of a Ft. Myers to Vero Beach line since the tail end (south end) of the front will be lacking even more in upper level dynamtic energy than what Central portions will be provided with. Any severe weather threat will be confined to the Panhandle region, although we could receive some thunder applause over night tonight should one particular storm get its 'act' together. But no one is going to be taking home an Emmy this time around.
WEDNESDAY: Front on the approach at day break after having already cleared all of NW Florida. It will start out cloudy with some light rain in the vicinity. Over night low in near 70F +/- three degrees pretty much everywhere under the blanket of evening clouds.
Now expect the front to cross east central Florida between the hours of 8AM to 1pm before it blasts on through South Florida by sunset. Rapid clearing behind the boundary and NW winds on its chilly heels begins the cold air advection pattern all night over night in Thursday morning and lingering into Saturday as well.
WEEKEND OUTLOOK: Pleasantly cool with sweater and jacket mornings and sun ray catching afternoons in whatever you wish to wear that makes you happy, uh...within legal reason..
NEXT WEEK: Veering winds bring a slight return to an onshore flow regime as the GFS now shows another system to cross about 1 week after the one coming up tomorrow.
It is this system that beaqrs watching from a 'very chilly weather' perspective. But for now, just watching...and praying "NOooooooooo".