"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Monday, April 13, 2015

"Heavy' Thunderstorms Again Possible Today Especially North Central/East Half

Sunday Morning ( Cape Canaveral)
TODAY: As of 6AM appears another active thunderstorm/rain shower day at hand. Even at this early hour morning temperatures and instability are running a bit above the norm near the east coast in some locations. (not that temperatures and these recent rains are not already well out of the norm). An upper level 'disturbance' is noted on satellite imagery much as was the case two days ago in almost the same location as well at the time of day (noted in image below).

Moderate instability (CAPE: Convective Available Potential Energy) , little to no capping, and cooler air aloft in the midst of upper level energy (vorticity) along with lake and sea breeze interactions (sounds almost like summer, unusually so for this time of year) in the midst of ample atmospheric moisture content (PWAT, precipitable water) should be the needing ingredients. Steering should favor interior and eastern sides (especially north of SR 60) for late day activity that might be stronger.

 Earlier in the day we could see some showers or 'weaker thunder' form as the east coast sea breezes begins its frontal march toward the west. It will be late day though as the west meets east in combination of other pre-existing boundaries that the spurious  'Pop  Drop Plop"  storms will provide the impetus for possibly stronger wind gusts and/or small hail. Storm activity could roll off the east coast mainly north of Cape Canaveral but boundary interactions could still result in 'decent thunder' further south as well (especially late).

Might have to watch for  a 'concentrated fizzle faze area' of light to moderate rain perhaps in the Volusia toward Osceola Count/Seminole Counties toward and/or after dark (which might result in localized urban 'flooding').

BEYOND: Again as noted before, it is tempting to call each day as it looks from overnight guidance, but there are too many mitigating factors at play to go beyond each day as it comes. For example, Tuesday looks to be much drier for the state overall in the wake off today's S/W (short-wave) but guidance is favoring 'north half-east side" from mainly Melbourne and North late day. So we can see if that holds true yet still tomorrow.

Rain chances/storms still possible through the weekend, as noted previously, with additions to the variables involved heading toward Thursday as stronger Southern Jet Stream winds being to enter the picture increasing upper level divergence and/or shear.

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