|Late Last Week, Cocoa Beach Surfing|
The answer will be known later in the afternoon depending upon how much of a direct onshore component the east coast sea breeze attains. The less from the east and more from the south it is, the closer toward I-95 is the thunderstorm chance. Temperatures aloft are cold and the best divergence aloft (for evacuation of updrafts) has been showing up to occur from Brevard South toward Vero Beach, Therefore, will watch interior Osceola County mostly then north-northeastward with time. Activity could press to the beaches (possibly after dark)..but whether it will be thunder or not is a tough call as we will have lost heating of the day by then (assuming any can form).
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: So far, today appears to be the better rain chance day. These days will be more characterized with continued warm to warmer as SW winds at the surface take hold. Chance of showers is greatly reduced but still watching Tuesday afternoon for the east coast (though nothing is showing up in guidance for that day). Regardless, well above 'normal' temperatures through Wednesday afternoon.
LATE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: Frontal boundary glides down to Central or South Central and begins to undergo frontolysis (or dissipation of identity). Regardless, cooler air will be hence coming behind the boundary with reinforcements toward Friday or Saturday. For now, will leave well enough alone and saw a cooler period in store for these days with light winds with some clouds.
Overall, the general trend is that it will be warmer Tuesday and Wednesday which appears to be the end of it for quite some time.
The period of the 7th and 8th might be much cooler yet more (akin to recent days), and after that there is a big divergence in consensus from model run to model run for the GFS.
|Paddle Boarder Greets the Morning|
NOTE: We are entering the coldest time of year now from the first week of January into the last week of the month, with cold times also possible later. Climatologically though, this is the coldest month overall baring unusual circumstances which is always possible.
We will also be entering a period after this week into March of the potential for severe weather (aka, tornadoes) if the right ingredients can pull together. Every year is different, and at time there have been hints in the longer range guidance that something might make an attempt, but so far nothing concrete has yet been shown for a severe weather event, even in the long range guess range.