"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Sunday, June 16, 2019

Showers/Storms through Tuesday -- Drying Out and Hot Next Weekend

Severe Warned Thunderstorm This Day 2018, Titusville, Florida
TODAY: Deeper atmospheric moisture up through all atmospheric levels is working northward from South Florida as mid-upper level and surface winds all become more southerly with time through Monday (mainly southeast-south southeast today). 

Most cloudy skies persist along to south of I4 today and such will be the case most of the day with some intermittent breaks here and there from time to time. 

With a little day time heating to even just shortly after sunrise most guidance suggests showers could start to 'sprout up' off shore to near the coast mainly from near and south of Port St Lucie toward Fort Pierce to offshore South Brevard County which will then work north slowly and/or along their own outflow boundaries reaching East Central by mid-late morning and lasting up through early afternoon in that general vicinity.

Chances are areas further toward South Central/South Florida after initial activity might see little more the remainder of the day, but remain cloudy / partly cloudy but for further South Florida which might recover (esp. far South Florida) for late afternoon activity over the interior.

With longer daytime heating (toward noon time -2pm time frame) thunderstorms could truly begin especially in areas that will have better heating (less cloudy cover) early on. That area is mainly the North Half of the state as can been seen from the pre-dawn satellite image below. All activity will form in the rather soupy, non-descript air mass with the strongest potentially along the leading edge of the moisture gradient as it ushers northward from South/South Central during the course of mid-morning to early afternoon from South to North. 

Instability is not forecast to be all 'that strong' today, so the strongest of activity will rely upon boundary collisions, better heating, and moisture gradients which appear will 'be at their best' along portions of West Central (near I75) later in the day near to south of Ocala vicinity.

TONIGHT-MONDAY: With a break in the activity, more showers could re-emerge late night/pre-sunrise along the East Coast with possibly another similar scenario to 'rue'-the-day on Monday as PWAT air mass (precipitable water) remains nearly saturated with moderate instability and wind becoming a bit more southerly.  Details to follow on that day.

TUESDAY: Wind overnight Monday to Tuesday becomes more southwesterly at all levels while high PWAT air remains in place. How exactly this day will unfold is 'TBD" but rain chances remain a good bet, though 'early morning' activity along the coast could shift offshore rather than remain on land (if there is any).

WEDNESDAY:  After Tuesday the highest PWAT air is forecast to shift off to the east. Rain chances this day and Thursday appear to go down considerably, though official forecasts are still calling for a respectable chance; appears that 'chance' will have to wait until at least noon-late day and occur mainly along the East Side of the state (at least as far as thunder is concerned) though showers and some storms might move ashore along the west coast, even before sunrise (a bit of a reversal of patterns from today and tomorrow ).

THURSDAY-WEEKEND: Though Thursday could be similar to Wednesday, we'll have to see how things are playing out by then. 

The overall trend is for further drying, less cloud cover, and hence, warmer temperatures. By Friday - Monday the GFS (for example) has been indicating ambient air temperatures as high as the Upper 90Fs (even 100F? in one instance without considering the 'heat index') toward Eastern portions of North Central Florida with a predominant southwesterly flow. 

Sea breezes should temper down afternoon highs these days , but not before many at the coast see at least lower 90Fs with a delayed onset.

Temperature forecasts this far out in time (as is the case most any time) can be very sketchy, but for now suffice it to say that by the end of the week through early next week it will be anything but what we'd expect to experience this time of year for the 'wet season'. 

Hot and dry with little relief west of I95 appears will be the 'rule of the day' until at least Tuesday and or Wednesday.

No comments: