"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Thursday, December 31, 2015

2016 To Start Out Too Cool and Too Wet

Front Row Seats For Sunrise Observances in Cocoa Beach 
DECEMBER 31ST - JANUARY 1 2016: Not much discernible change from the weather pattern of late for New Year's Eve. The "Omega Block" like pattern forecast to set up is in process but the impression is, it won't last long. Some potent storm systems will be  breaking the 'log jamming' over the U.S West Coast this upcoming week to put an end to the Block in quick fashion, but for Florida this will still mean a lot of up and down weather and difficult to forecast very well beyond even the mid-range .

 Per forecast discussions from NWS Offices agreement is that the first 'big change' will be with a cold frontal passage New Year's Day night well after dark from Central to South Florida. Southeast Florida almost escapes the much cooler air entirely   but folks Central and North will see a significant difference come Sunday where little rise in temperatures out of the 50Fs will occur. That is a far cry from highs inland in the mid-upper 80Fs that have been being observed.

Depiction of Front Position across Florida New Year's Day Afternoon
with first system approaching (Near the Baja)

SUNDAY: Lows in the mid 50Fs with increasing cloud cover. Rains are forecast to increase in earnest by noon time and then really make an 'impact' from early afternoon toward midnight into very early Monday. Remaining cloud cover with lighter rain near the coast should end by afternoon if not sooner and a little warmer.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: Improving conditions but could get quite breezy while yet another system is on the approach for WEDNESDAY. 

WEDNESDAY:  This system 'might' pack even more of a rainfall punch than from the previous system.

The GFS is showing between the two systems rainfall could be as much as 6" or more inches....questionable , yes. Yet, we might be able to expect across Central anything from 2 - 4" between the two systems in only a 4 day period. And if more, well then can't say the Global Forecast System model didn't warn us. And it's not over yet. Another system is slated toward the Friday time frame.  Might also be able to expect some thunder with any of these forthcoming systems, so far, especially the second one coming mid-week. Heavy downpours or even strong winds from elevated potentially slightly rotating storms.

The coldest temperatures will be associated with the passage of the first system going into Tuesday morning after which onshore flow should bring moderating temperatures though it could get quite breezy to even windy somewhere going into Tuesday before the next system approaches.

NWS discussions vary on degree on rainfall as the GFS and EURO model apparently are not in full agreement.

Therefore, if receiving information from news sources might be prepared to hear varying stories about what the upcoming days have to bring from one source to the next or even from the same source from one day to the next, as models have been shifting around quite a bit from run to model run.

The 'mayhem' might continue as far as toward January 10th or 11th as yet one more system is foreseen in the days ahead beyond Wednesday. We'll just have to see how that one pans out.

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Tuesday, December 29, 2015

Big Pattern Change To Evolve Away From Warm and Dry

Surf Fishing Tuesday Morning, Cocoa Beach, Florida
TODAY- THURSDAY: Little change of late but for some increasing moisture at times and entrance of a mention of some spotty showers as well from time to time, beginning mainly Wednesday afternoon and beyond into next week. More record warm minimums and afternoon maxes could fall yet still in almost any official reporting location.

FRIDAY: Long awaited frontal boundary eases per 'the latest' (which is subject to change) into Central Florida and holds nearly stationary there from late Friday into Tuesday of next week. Anything even close to such will resulting in much cloudier conditions accompanied by periods of some showers, and at that point the boundary looks like a given. Where it 'sets camp' might still change. 

SUNDAY: So far this appears to be 'the big rain day going into early Monday". The heavier concentration of rainfall totals has shifted a bit north from last post to now being from I-10 South to Central Direct into parts of South Central (instead of further south). 

Also, temperatures are not shown to be as cold as previously advertised! Now, low 60Fs to mid 70Fs rule the roost south of I-4 and mainly 50Fs and 60Fs from I-4 and north. But again, plenty of time to re-evaluate and temperatures not far off the surface are forecast to be pretty any continuous rainfall might result in a huge temperature forecast busts, especially for Sunday/Monday time frame - meaning, it might be much cooler than expected.

GFS shows a REX BLOCK pattern setting up  as seen below. How long such a 'block' if it evolves will last is impossible to say. 

Models almost always try to pull blocking patterns out well before they are truly ready to leave. What that will mean for Florida is little change on the larger synoptic scale but with daily variables in cloud cover and rain chances being determined by when a disturbance passes over head from the west.

Envision disturbances caught up with those winds at 20,000 feet and  passing over Old Mexico, across the Gulf, and toward Florida , perhaps several times in coming days with varying results
 By definition, 'block' implies..'hard to break down'..or in regard to sensible weather, 'little change for a fairly long period of time'.  

Florida is shown to be the truly warmest location in the U.S. during this particular set up... especially south of I-4. Cloud cover might be more often than not.

The GFS has the pattern persisting probably for a good week (which would be normal)...but lifting toward the north. All in all, this would mean no Truly Cold Air as feared would be the case and was being advertised to occur over Florida in the extended by the same model just a few days ago. Will it change back though to colder air? After Day 7 at this rate, anything is possible.

Temperature forecasts look almost identical for several strings of days in row though for mornings in the mid-term..much like this one below showing lows in the lower-mid 60Fs to 70Fs far South Florida as a weak low pressure forms over the western edge of the Gulf Stream near "The Cape" :

IN SUMMARY BEYOND MONDAY: Rains so far appear should be over by Early Monday some time as things stand now...temperatures running through the lower 60Fs to mid 70Fs (colder north of I-4). ...that is...morning lows a bit 'warmer than normal' with afternoon highs around normal going toward this time next week.

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Monday, December 28, 2015

More Winter Warmth Records Could Fall Through Thursday - but Then....

"The Gathering"  - December 26th , Cape Canaveral

TODAY- NEW YEAR'S EVE (THURSDAY): Little sensible (detectable) change in general on the overall scheme of local weather affects today through Wednesday other than a gradual change in wind direction to more southerly, especially Tuesday - Wednesday. Only mitigating factor from breaking some afternoon high temperature records (once again, as has been the case for several unusually consecutive days now) would be increasing cloud coverage resulting in filtered sunlight or even cloudier periods.

Though, as such, record warm morning lows then may well become more likely.  
Little chance of rainfall though showers are possible, as was the case yesterday; however, they will be spread far apart from each other and occur mostly south of Vero Beach toward the coast, at least for the first parts of today. 

The next three days is too far out in time to get specific under the current circumstances.

FRIDAY is NEW YEAR'S DAY:  This day gets complicated in regard to cold frontal passage, especially south of I-4. 

The GFS (Global Forecast System model) has varied very little in regard to a front entering Central Florida sometime between midnight New Year's Eve through early afternoon New Year's Day across at least 12 model runs now - consistency is everything in this case and it has been consistent. Latest guidance shows it might temporarily 'stall' across Central on New Year's Day making for one last warm one along a line from Cape Canaveral to Tampa Bay and South. This particular front though is expected only to bring temperatures to near normal for this time of year (at least at first). 

Beyond this point in time , namely New Year's Day, everything starts to fall apart in regard to consistency in model runs.

WEEKEND: Though winds swing around to easterly rapidly behind eventual fropa (frontal passage)...a secondary upper level 'impulse' is forecast to pass overhead the very shallow front. As such, though weather might at first clear up and temperatures cool off (significantly so)...rain is also forecast to begin from north to south about 36 hours later early Sunday into the afternoon and on into Sunday night/early Monday with greatest impacts across all of Central and parts of South Florida. 

Forecasting temperatures, especially afternoon highs might be a extremely difficult to forecast and temperature forecast 'busts' could be likely if the GFS keeps showing what it is showing. 

Rainfall is expected to fall BEHIND the front over the second half of the weekend   and if so, cold air could be dragged from aloft, downward, causing a greater fall in temperatures than would otherwise be the case...with rain included. This would be quite a shock compared to the prolonged record breaking warmth we've had for quite a while now.

Temperatures might hold steady in the upper 40Fs - lower 50Fs range..and if possible, parts of South Central Florida might even be 'colder' than regions further north because of the rainfall. 

However, this has been a fairly new developing suggestion by the model...but for now ...Sunday is not looking to be a 'very nice day' at all. Cold and wet

Will be keeping abreast on this one during earlier parts of this week, as that is still a good time away from today (early Monday).

BEYOND: What follows the weekend (or what does or doesn't happen) again goes across the boards in terms of possibilities -  from easterly flow and moderating temperatures to a secondary cold air intrusion for our first True Burst of Statewide Cold for the Winter 2015-2016 season..or maybe not. 

Too far out in time obviously if we can't even be sure about the weekend time frame with much certainty. 

PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY: Watching for a severe weather event as well. If keeping up with the headlines some might be aware of the tornado outbreaks that occurred in parts of the Southern Plains , Deep South, and Midwest since Christmas Eve. 

With cold air working further south, Florida will be prime for being next in line as the next Streak of the Southern Jet Branch works across Old Mexico and the Gulf of Mexico , pointing  directly at Florida after next weekend toward the January 6th -10th time frame (for now). Too far out in time but other than to observe that Florida , like the Hurricane-less Season, is long overdue for a winter severe weather outbreak.  

We might well observe that later in January through all of February into March might be more active  in those regards this year if the currently broad synoptic scale pattern continues - so far, seeing little reason for it not too across the broad scheme of things.

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Friday, December 25, 2015

More Record Warmth to Endure Through Mid-Next Week

Birds of a Feather Flock Together

TODAY: Little sensible/appreciable change on this Christmas Day in the current weather regime for Florida south of I-4  into the upcoming weekend. Muggy - gooey mornings with periods of fog lifting into mid-morning and warm with near to record warm temperatures (either record warm minimums, afternoon maxes, or a mix of both) to match up with the dew point temperatures running into the lower 70Fs  and mid-upper 60Fs away from the coast over night. 

Below are some example 'record reports' out of the Tampa (TPA), Melbourne (MLB), and Miami (MIA) National Weather Service (NWS) Offices from the past two days. There are more examples of the same from these stations.

 Noting  that only official reporting stations are considered - but MOST areas in the state are not 'official reporting stations' records could well have fallen in any given area, for example in Cocoa Beach, Cape Canaveral, Holopaw , or any other location in Florida that is not an official site without it ever being reported.

As for Christmas Day (today !), the cloud deck noted on yesterday's satellite imagery and was observed to those who noticed it is thinning out - dissipating - thus, more sun today than yesterday with some foggy areas early on through mid-late morning .  Note from above that Naples was not under the cloudy canopy yesterday that other's were, and as a result experienced a high temperature of 88F. Note also, that some of the morning lows down in southeast Florida are comparable to summer time morning lows.

BEYOND: Next storm system will be taking shape over for South Texas in the next 72 hours and will track ENE and eventually NNE (away from Florida) with a possible severe weather set up once again for far East Texas, part of Louisiana, Mississippi, Arkansas (at least)..and this region and more is already being 'outlooked' for such by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in the 27th -28th time frame. Apart from this upcoming event, and snow fall mainly along and west of the continental divide ..warm weather prevails even up the U.S. east coast toward the Del Marva (to lesser 'degrees' Fahrenheit). Things appear to remain dry for the most part until at least Monday.

THE CHANGE:  Question becomes when will the 'Climate Change' come for Winter 2016? Latest GFS continues to spell out a cold bout coming New Year's Day time frame and for nearly the entire week to follow..though 'Official Forecast Discussions' are not alluding to such as of yet are in some cases include one sentence concerning it. 

But take heed, if the GFS verifies...a temperature shift of nearly a 35F degrees fall in morning lows and up to 25-30F for afternoon highs is possible, though suspect the model might be a little over-done - time will tell. But if so, that would be quite an unaccommodating change to get acclimated to considering the long-string of warmth we've had to 'endure'. 

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Thursday, December 24, 2015

Merry Christmas - It Won't Be Getting Cold for a Year !

Sunrise December 23rd, 2015 in Cape Canaveral, Florida

TODAY: Continued 'sticky' (especially near the beaches) and warmer with lows in the lower 70Fs and highs upper 70Fs to lower 80Fs. Some higher southern stream jet cirrus clouds will be passing overhead today ..and given the low sun angle as we have just come past the shortest-day of the year with the advent of the celestial winter season - every beam of sunshine is necessary for record breaking heating which won't occur today. The better bet in the next several days is record warm minimums as opposed to afternoon highs - though some future days hold promise too for that.

TONIGHT FOR CHRISTMAS EVE SERVICES: Mid 70Fs temperature wise and very light wind "Sticky, muggy' but otherwise rain is not foreseen other than a renegade shower though very remote.

CHRISTMAS DAY: More of the same except wind becomes a bit more easterly as opposed to southerly. Immediate coast might be held down to the upper 70Fs to near 80F as a result. The clincher in regard to afternoon high temperatures will be the amount of cirrus clouds (or lack thereof).

BEYOND: No cold fronts are foreseen in the near future. There was a severe weather outbreak yesterday across parts of the mid-west and the Deep South. The next one is currently slated for the December 27th -28th time frame. No periods of 'definitely forecast-able rain' is in the guidance - not to say there won't still be chances of some showers to emerge in days to come - just for now they all look for weak in anything other  than random.

It is the overall pattern change foreseen by the GFS model that brings a cold front knocking at Central Florida's Door near Midnight on New Year's Eve

If the GFS is right. a "pattern flip-flop' will be in order for the country at least for a short time..with a big ridge over the West Half of the Country and Trough over the East. This is still a good week away though, and things can change.

Below is an image showing what that pattern 
would look like at 
around 5000 Ft AGL


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Monday, December 21, 2015

Latest Warm Up to Last Until 2016 ? Looks Likely So Far

Sunrise at Cocoa Beach, Florida - December 20, 2015
TODAY-WEDNESDAY: Increasing warmth after 'the cool spell' as wind becomes ESE to eventually southeast. Slugs of moisture to approach Central from South Florida periodically, the first of which will be today. Chance of a trace of rain or increasing cloud cover from time to time but for the most part 'muggy' and warmer with overnight lows at the coast in the low 70s (see next image) and cooler inland each day though there too it will be warmer round the clock.

Early Morning Pre-Sunrise Temperature Depiction
The best chances of rain through Wednesday appear to be during the very late afternoons into the evening hours through early morning the follow day (both for tonight and Tuesday late afternoon through Wednesday morning) but timing is too uncertain to peg it down to the hour.

THURSDAY: A cold front positioned near the Mississippi River will make little eastward progress, perhaps another 200 miles before stalling and retreating back north as high pressure centered several hundred miles east of the Carolina holds fast.  (below)

THURSDAY - CHRISTMAS EVE: Continued warm with southerly winds. This might be the warmest of days to come yet still, Some record warm minimums appear more to be threatened rather than afternoon high temperatures though away from the east coast it's always possible.

Less chance of rains by this time if guidance is correct as a dry slot approaches in the mid-level circulation

CHRISTMAS DAY: Warm with lows in the mid-upper 60Fs (inland) and lower 70Fs east coast and highs near 80F at the coast and a bit warmer inland under partly cloudy skies. Perhaps a shower at any time but too far out in time to draw any conclusions . One thing is certain, no cold front looms to threaten the current pattern. Still appears that many folks west of the Continental Divide in higher elevations (mainly) could see plenty of snow from SE Colorado to Northern and Central California and into Northern AZ.

BEYOND: Continued pretty much the same for several days beyond Christmas. The GFS has been showing a change somewhere between December 30th - January 5 but whether that is 'real' or not is not possible to know considering how far out in time that is with lack of reliability that far out in time. 

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Saturday, December 19, 2015

Near Record Warmth Possible Wednesday & Christmas Eve

Sunrise Friday Morning, Cape Canaveral Florida
TODAY: Conditions are panning out as expected in previous post. The warmest location this morning (advertised by this blog several times as being  rather typically mornings) is 'east of US1 and/or  Route A1A along the east coast south to around Lake Okeechobee and/or through the Keys holds true. Colder regions mostly along and north of I-4 (especially the Panhandle) and down along the west side of the state toward Punta Gorda.

Winds from the North will pick up a bit with some mixing of daytime heating, with highs mostly in the lower 60Fs along and north of I-4, mid-upper 60Fs Central, and into the 70Fs further south.

Sky Conditions have rapidly improved since last night, though some patches of clouds will still be out there today, not a significant amount will be present  as winds become a bit more NNE later in the day gusting to around 20-25mph at times.

SUNDAY: The same areas as shown above that are warmest this Saturday morning will repeat the same this morning, but all areas will be generally be 5-8F degrees warmer Sunday morning, but  Sunday afternoon will remain cool one more day with mid-upper 60Fs and lower 70Fs spreading north.

MONDAY: The Bigger Change begins on December 21st (the Winter Equinox / Solstice) as the sun passes over the Tropic of Capricorn on December 21st or 22nd depending on where on the calendar map one is located. For this blogger's region, this will occur at 11 :48PM  Monday evening or 23:47:28 UTC (Universal Time Coordinates) we head toward near record warmth on Tuesday, the 22nd. 

On  Monday morning into the afternoon wind will be southerly with back to warmer mornings and evenings round the clock fot a long string of days ahead. Tuesday continues warmer.

WEDNESDAY: Near record warmth on the Second Full Day of astronomical winter, mostly south of the I-4. Slight chance of showers or sprinkle near the east coast later Tuesday through Wednesday, but most rain activity will occur north of I-4 next week as it appears now.

Beach Access Crossover - Cocoa Beach, Florida
FULL MOON: Christmas morning  Eleven Minutes past Midnight, first time we've had a Full Christmas Moon since 1977, and will not occur again until 2034.

CHRISTMAS DAY: Wind becomes more Southeast from off the Atlantic so 'near record warmth' not expected though 'above normal' temperatures will occur all locations from Christmas Day and for several days to follow.

In Summary, this morning is the coolest morning we will experience for at least a week if not the next 10 days.

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Thursday, December 17, 2015

Record High Temperatures Could Fall Today - Cold Frontal Passage Friday

Early Morning Cape Canaveral Salty Mist 
TODAY: Some official record high temperatures are in reach of breaking today as wind becomes southwest into late morning and early afternoon under partly to scattered clouds. Unlike the other day when some higher clouds were present and still all records were tied, today there are no high clouds which will set the stage to break them more easily. Additionally, most of the previous record highs for this date are lower than the other day (which was around 85F -86F). No rain anticipated today but for North Florida. Orlando will be the most difficult high temperature max to be breached (and possibly Daytona).

FRIDAY: Little change from previous post other than it does not appear that it will get as cold as previously surmised especially along the IMMEDIATE east coast from Canaveral south toward Vero Beach. 

Cold front is now slated to come through a bit later on Friday opposed to a pre-noon time now looks like between 10AM - 1pm  between I-4 to SR 528 , and then through 3 PM toward Ft Pierce and then through all of the state by sunset. 

Highs on Friday could still reach the upper 70Fs to near 80F or so from Central Brevard and south before front passes through though cloud cover and showers could keep record highs at bay. Further north cloud cover and earlier passage will keep highs in the lower 60Fs.

Slight chance of some rumbles mainly South Central Florida but showers are possible further north (Central) through   noon-2pm (or there will be at least extensive cloud cover ?).

SATURDAY: Drier air works into North Central and on down to South Florida as high pressure passes  quickly from west to east across the Deep South north of the state Friday night through sunrise on Saturday. Winds will at first be NW but swing around to North and eventually just east of due North by sunrise Saturday morning. The NAM was most generous with the LACK of colder air showing only a low for example near Port Canaveral of  60F; the GFS is not far from that though showing a 55F -59F. Both show breezy conditions, but either way the colder air will be found west of I95 toward the west coast and south toward Ft Myers with highs a good 20F degrees cooler than today.  

SUNDAY: After a day with highs in the 60Fs another similar day in store but about 4-6F degrees warmer..approaching 70F from 528 and south. Continued breezy with coastal clouds moving in.

Chance of low topped showers possible from the Cape and South Sunday evening into Monday morning but that chance is extremely low. Better chance of showers begins on Monday through Wednesday (coming in off the ocean from the east).

NEXT WEEK TO CHRISTMAS: Warming trend after the brief 'cool down' this weekend..with near Record High temperatures again possible the 23RD and the 24TH (Christmas Eve day). 

GFS is showing chance of showers and thunderstorms (possibly strong) on Christmas Eve but that is still a week away and things could easily change in that regard. 

So far the next front is to have less of a cooling effect than the one to approach on Friday/Saturday. It too (even so) is followed by a very quick warm up.

Does the Warm December Weather Make People Feel a Bit This Way?

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Tuesday, December 15, 2015

Near Record Warmth through Thursday Night & Then Christmas Eve (At First Glance)

72F at Sunrise  - Cape Canaveral Tuesday Morning
TODAY: Frontal Boundary has found it's final resting place across North Central Florida this afternoon where greater cloud cover exists along with some spotty light rain. The boundary will eventually lift back north as another front moves out of the Great Plains with its attendant surface low forming over Oklahoma toward Florida late Wednesday into Early Friday.

Dying Frontal Boundary Shown by Light Blue Dashed Line

Obvious to See Warmest Temperatures Today will be South of I-4 (Central and South Florida)
South of the front and away from the Clouds

TONIGHT: Much like last night in many areas of Central and South Florida. Chance of some fog again possible. It was fairly wide-spread this morning but not all areas experienced it.

WEDNESDAY: Temperatures in many areas will be much like today, but warmer toward I-4 and north as the old boundary lifts back north. Not much in the rain-fields showing in model data. Highs in the lower to mid-80Fs or about 8-12 degrees above climatic norms.

THURSDAY: Better chance of afternoon rain-showers as wind  becomes more Southwesterly in advance of the next front. Chance of near record highs along the east coast mainly south of I-4 toward Brevard/Indian River County south toward Ft Pierce contingent upon amount of cloud cover.

FRIDAY: Frontal Boundary  plowing down the state early through mid-day Friday passing through Central generally between 7AM - noon time. Chance that the warmest temperatures of the day will be experienced across North Central - Central within a few hours either side of sunrise with falling temperatures more assured (or holding steady) around the 1PM time frame as the full surge of drier air moves in. Gustier NW-NNW winds to move in with the cooler air. 

Morning 'day time highs' should be in the upper 60Fs range but could fall toward the mid-upper 50Fs nearer to I-4 and closer to the 58-62F mark across Central (and yet warmer south) by mid-afternoon accompanied by very gusty winds as skies eventually clear from north to south. Chance of light rain Central through about 9AM as a first best guess..then cloudy but with rapid clearing by 1pm on a line running from Cape Canaveral to Tampa Bay (for example). 

As can be seen below, per the morning GFS run the True Front of colder air moves in right at PEAK HEATING hours over Central Florida with rapid clearing. This could create quite a bit of mixing if the timing of the GFS is right making for gusting and very cool winds (air).  

Image shows Pre-frontal Boundary followed by the Drier Air ('green region) 3-5 hours later

SATURDAY: Coolest day round the clock. The warmest spot as winds start to swing around to being from the North should be near Beach-side at the Cape and South as shown below . This is the typically 'warmest spot' in the state when wind is from the North to just east of North in the winter. Lows away from the beaches in the mid-upper 40Fs but closer to low-mid 50Fs closer to the beaches. Much will depend though on how quickly the winds become more northerly. Often the GFS is too quick on the wind swinging around - and if so - the beaches north of Vero Beach might end up seeing something like a 'surprise 46F' reading . Highs on Saturday north of a Cocoa Beach to Tampa line might not reach 60F. But, changes are in the offing soon enough for overnight wind will swing just enough so that by...


SUNDAY MORNING: East coast temperatures near A1A south of The Cape never really drop off much after dark...with morning lows in the mid-upper 50Fs to near 60F. Sunday still looks to be a cool day though with highs in the mid-upper 60Fs but for South Florida.

MONDAY: Return toward 'Seasonal Norms' with lows in the upper 60Fs and highs in mid-70Fs once again but continued a bit breezy from a more easterly direction.

EXTENDED: Warming yet still to possible 'record highs' once again going into Mid-Week through Christmas Eve (Tuesday through Thursday). Next rain chance so far is being shown (after early Saturday) to be sometime late Christmas Day with the next front , but way too soon to say for now. Generally speaking..the outlook as of now for Central and South Florida is a  'Toasty Warm' Christmas Eve going into Christmas Day, no fireplace necessary.

A snowy Christmas Eve and Day appears in the offing for many mountainous areas along and west of the Continental Divide even into northern Arizona, The Four Corners Regions, the Inter-mountain Region near the Great Salt lake, and parts of Northern California.

Most snowfall Christmas Eve/Day should occur west of
the Continental Divide

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Sunday, December 13, 2015

Near Record High Temperatures Upcoming Week

TODAY: Moist morning pre-sunrise this Sunday already as Atlantic Ridge holds fast barring any cold fronts through the mid-term from impacting Peninsular Florida. Deeper moisture to work north during the day with an increase in clouds today as opposed to yesterday's full sunshiny warmth.

Chance of showers could increase from The South northward heading toward sunset into the late evening hours (Central Florida). The deeper moisture might continue further north into mid-day Monday as wind shifts from east to southeast; then eventually south by ...

MONDAY: ...a Breezier Monday morning with decreasing rain chance. Monday afternoon is seeing southwest wind and very warm with highs in the mid-80Fs unless (and this will be the case on any of potential record high temperature breaking days this week)..clouds prohibit peak heating at prime time in the noon-3 PM time frame.

TUESDAY: Front now on approach appears to lose identity near the I-10 . Continued moist and a bit 'sticky' especially early morning hours as winds decrease. Another front will be following toward the end of the work-week in the very progressive weather pattern that is affecting mainly the Western U.S. and across the far north. Attendant low pressure system today forming over Oklahoma will be lifting NNE toward the Canadian Border with the next one in line to do something similar.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: Two more very warm days, especially away from the coastal influence of the sea breeze. Chances of showers are very low south of I-4. Thursday seems as of now to be the better bet for a chance of some 'near record highs' (mid-upper 80Fs range) once again, though clouds will be a deciding factor on this day as well.

Reindeer Run on a Pleasant December Morning
FRIDAY: As of early this Sunday morning, the next front to impact all of the state is slated for Friday into Saturday. The latest GFS shows that it could be warmer at sunrise Friday morning south of I-4 (Central Florida) than it will be during peak heating hours Friday afternoon with Fropa in the mid-morning hours. Granted, timing will be an issue and will surely change in the next several days.  

Could end up being very cool next Saturday, but again, update will follow as this is a newly emerging portrayal for next weekend that was not showing up even only yesterday (at least not as cool as shown with highs on...

...SATURDAY: ...barely if even making it to 70F. ..if even 60F (!?) and very breezy from the north. Not long lived though as by SUNDAY morning winds begin to swing easterly and decrease with slow air-mass modification already in full-swing with highs remaining only in the mid-60Fs. Will see if the GFS holds on to the 'shift' in future runs. So far, this weekend looks like everything next weekend will not be.

Saturday Morning , Cape Canaveral

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Wednesday, December 9, 2015

Warmer Saturday - Monday: Chance of Showers Today/Sunday Night

"A Man and His Heron"
TODAY: Considerable cloudiness but with some potentially decent breaks (mainly South Florida and North Florida). Jet stream cirrus that was across South Florida is lifting north to across South Central at this time (6AM) and could potentially lift as far north as the Titusville area. Otherwise, the NAM model and now to some degree the RAP short term model are showing sufficient surface based instability for showers and even some thunder (?). Might be over-kill, but best chance if so would likely be from near West Palm Beach and south. Cloud cover could also prevent any 'convective-like' build ups.  The NAM is focused with the rain chances from near Sebastian south to toward West Palm, while the GFS has the focus more to off the coast of Brevard. The short term RAP model shows 'light' showers almost anywhere within the 'green area' shown in the image below.

Meanwhile, weak low pressure expected to form near the far NW Bahamas generally east of West Palm is to lift off to the north and east during the next 36 hours. The net affect by tomorrow could be more northerly wind but continued light with a less chance of any shower activity (it would seem). Overall, the benign pattern continues into Friday.

WEEKEND: Wind becomes more easterly to eventually southeast and even Southwest going into the Sunday/Monday time frame as a frontal boundary approaches.  Wind speeds pick up also to the 15 -20mph range on Sunday/Monday. Warmer this weekend, especially on Sunday and then again on Monday. Little activity is expected with the front itself though could see some showers Sunday night/early Monday.

TUESDAY-BEYOND: Cool down behind front similar to past few days (if even). Overall, continued near to above normal temperatures through next week and generally dry other than as described above.

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