"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Monday, December 28, 2015

More Winter Warmth Records Could Fall Through Thursday - but Then....

"The Gathering"  - December 26th , Cape Canaveral

TODAY- NEW YEAR'S EVE (THURSDAY): Little sensible (detectable) change in general on the overall scheme of local weather affects today through Wednesday other than a gradual change in wind direction to more southerly, especially Tuesday - Wednesday. Only mitigating factor from breaking some afternoon high temperature records (once again, as has been the case for several unusually consecutive days now) would be increasing cloud coverage resulting in filtered sunlight or even cloudier periods.

Though, as such, record warm morning lows then may well become more likely.  
Little chance of rainfall though showers are possible, as was the case yesterday; however, they will be spread far apart from each other and occur mostly south of Vero Beach toward the coast, at least for the first parts of today. 

The next three days is too far out in time to get specific under the current circumstances.

FRIDAY is NEW YEAR'S DAY:  This day gets complicated in regard to cold frontal passage, especially south of I-4. 

The GFS (Global Forecast System model) has varied very little in regard to a front entering Central Florida sometime between midnight New Year's Eve through early afternoon New Year's Day across at least 12 model runs now - consistency is everything in this case and it has been consistent. Latest guidance shows it might temporarily 'stall' across Central on New Year's Day making for one last warm one along a line from Cape Canaveral to Tampa Bay and South. This particular front though is expected only to bring temperatures to near normal for this time of year (at least at first). 

Beyond this point in time , namely New Year's Day, everything starts to fall apart in regard to consistency in model runs.

WEEKEND: Though winds swing around to easterly rapidly behind eventual fropa (frontal passage)...a secondary upper level 'impulse' is forecast to pass overhead the very shallow front. As such, though weather might at first clear up and temperatures cool off (significantly so)...rain is also forecast to begin from north to south about 36 hours later early Sunday into the afternoon and on into Sunday night/early Monday with greatest impacts across all of Central and parts of South Florida. 

Forecasting temperatures, especially afternoon highs might be a extremely difficult to forecast and temperature forecast 'busts' could be likely if the GFS keeps showing what it is showing. 

Rainfall is expected to fall BEHIND the front over the second half of the weekend   and if so, cold air could be dragged from aloft, downward, causing a greater fall in temperatures than would otherwise be the case...with rain included. This would be quite a shock compared to the prolonged record breaking warmth we've had for quite a while now.

Temperatures might hold steady in the upper 40Fs - lower 50Fs range..and if possible, parts of South Central Florida might even be 'colder' than regions further north because of the rainfall. 

However, this has been a fairly new developing suggestion by the model...but for now ...Sunday is not looking to be a 'very nice day' at all. Cold and wet

Will be keeping abreast on this one during earlier parts of this week, as that is still a good time away from today (early Monday).

BEYOND: What follows the weekend (or what does or doesn't happen) again goes across the boards in terms of possibilities -  from easterly flow and moderating temperatures to a secondary cold air intrusion for our first True Burst of Statewide Cold for the Winter 2015-2016 season..or maybe not. 

Too far out in time obviously if we can't even be sure about the weekend time frame with much certainty. 

PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY: Watching for a severe weather event as well. If keeping up with the headlines some might be aware of the tornado outbreaks that occurred in parts of the Southern Plains , Deep South, and Midwest since Christmas Eve. 

With cold air working further south, Florida will be prime for being next in line as the next Streak of the Southern Jet Branch works across Old Mexico and the Gulf of Mexico , pointing  directly at Florida after next weekend toward the January 6th -10th time frame (for now). Too far out in time but other than to observe that Florida , like the Hurricane-less Season, is long overdue for a winter severe weather outbreak.  

We might well observe that later in January through all of February into March might be more active  in those regards this year if the currently broad synoptic scale pattern continues - so far, seeing little reason for it not too across the broad scheme of things.

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