"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Wednesday, May 30, 2012

Sketchtimated Chance of "Isolated Thunder " Later Today

Rough sketchtimate of 'potential' thunder chances today and quick rain dashes in green, perhaps thunder MIA metro area.
TODAY: Remains and wet ashes of Beryl will be heading toward the proverbial  burial at sea in the Western Atlantic tonight off the coast of North Carolina and eject rapidly ENE to NE ward into the Northern Atlantic and eventually becoming absorbed into a large trough with the net result being potential wet impacts to Northern Europe in about 6 days.

Meanwhile, back at the farm.  Another day of queries prevails. It appears a long lasting remnant boundary reflection dragging along the high-jaded heels of Beryl is draped across North Central where some showers and some lightning strikes occurred earlier toward West Florida north of TPA, but with daytime heating and drier air resulting the showers have been weakening the moment they get started. Much drier air resides over all of South Florida, although latest RUC guidance indicates some additional moisture 'could be waiting in the wings' to move in later today from the WNW..  The next questionable factor comes regarding a 'trigger' to set activity off in the first place. With low moisture aloft and little in Lake/Sea Breeze interactions due to the fairly healthy WSW surface gradient these simply cannot interact.  

Guidance does indicate a potential sea breeze probably getting no more than 1 mile inland from JAX to West Palm though by mid-late afternoon. As of 1:30pm the west wind seems to have lowered at the beach in my location.  This will be a major factor in determining if indeed ANY storms can form today worth noting. Skies are a bit hazy today for much of the state. This was noted to be in residence over the Gulf a few days ago, and hence, "Behold the haze whence forth it cometh! " Not sure what the origins are from, either Mexico or the Desert SW region.

The next difficulty comes with regards to the RUC ?NAM/ and GFS models are showing (who'd we leave out?) Current indications are that East Central from the Cape south toward Vero Beach will be the key area to watch today for thunder, with showers possible as far south as Miami where thunder could occur although not noted in the image and near West Palm on the South Side of the Lake Shadow...then too the Ft. Pierce to Vero area could see a storm from that factor alone.

RUC meso-analysis shows factors complimentary to even severe storms in the far Eastern Gulf once they swing eastward by mid-late afternoon across Florida, but whether those parameters are even Real is the big question because much of the late day forecast hinges on some semblance of them  reaching and across the state later today.  One last 'Big If', is that two models do indeed show a late day sea breeze after 5pm, but it appears that it could be due to outflow from 'mere' showers having already moved offshore. Thus the quandary.  

Lastly, other factors would dictate that any stronger if possible activity will not occur until quickly after 5pm through sunset somewhere from Ft Pierce north to Titusville with a potential isolated storm near Ormond/St Augustine area. But if showers occur any earlier, the atmosphere will have been stabilized negative that potential.

THURSDAY: Better chance of stronger storms, but suspect that some of the same dilemmas will be in place. One added bonus will be increasing upper level winds aiding lift though, and a better chance of a sea breeze since by that time any boundaries from Post-Beryl-mortem  will be out of the picture almost entirely. Additionally, a disturbance which will be triggering severe weather in Oklahoma Today could be over the area by later tomorrow ('could' , that is).  

FRIDAY: With a developing negatively tilted upper level trough kicking through the deep south and lifting NNE ward, wide spread severe weather for parts of the Mid Atlantic Region, the Deep South and Eastern Appalachians as far north as Pennsylvania to include all of the TVA Employees of Yore. Over Florida, the approach of that trough in such fashion will draw deep Tropical Moisture northward and across at least the Southern 1/3 to 1/2 of the state. Moisture ain't everything though, since it appears most of it will be mid-upper level moisture, thus, rain showers seem to be the game at play or perhaps merely cloudy conditions all day Friday for the South Half of the state. Depending on the depth of moisture though, a gradient/boundary could set up from the sunnier portions of the state to the north, making for an area somewhere across Central more favorable for storms 50 miles either side of the CFDL (Central Florida Dividing Line for purposes of posts running from Canaveral along 528 to Orlando and then along I-4 to Tampa.

BEYOND?: Could be 3 days of much more isolated if any activity and very warm afternoons with late day sea breeze near the coast.  

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