"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Sunday, January 9, 2011

Evolving Storm System Just Beginning To Be Felt - MUCH More To Come

This morning's images: (1) Current surface plot shows cold front having cleared Florida with developing storm complex affecting SE Texas with thunderstorms/rain (2) 8AM this morning colorized/general temperatures across the state. Note NE winds in the making with and temp gradient along the east coast. Wind barbs show a NE wind along the coast which are just offshore the Cape in reality (3) *Forecast for 7AM Monday morning. By this time 'everything weather' will be underway from Central Florida to the Central Plains. Those yellow areas are zones of contention (particularly nasty).

TODAY: The forecast from yesterday's post remains on track with a few (and should add, beneficial) timing discrepancies with a slight thunderstorm threat thrown in for kicks Monday. But in the short term, all parameters remain on track. As expected, overnight lows were coldest west of A1A with Patrick AFB reporting a morning low of 50F while Orlando International was at 42F. A northeast wind is already blowing at the Mayport Naval Air Station south to Daytona (where it's also 50F this hour), but hasn't quite made it to NE Brevard County and points south where winds were light from the N-NNW. I think there was a brief period last night when the atmosphere decoupled, so these winds are more of a land breeze more than anything else. The NNE-NE wind should develop by 10AM though up and down the east coast and encompass much of the state as well. Cool day regardless in the wake of the cold front, with highs across Central Florida in the mid-60s and lower further north, upper 60s south and 70s far Southeast Florida under partly cloudy skies.

At this point (and of potential later importance as we'll read below), will also add that southerly winds a few thousand feet overhead will begin to develop well in advance of the approaching storm system (just moving off the Texas Coast) as a warm front gathers moment to the south and moves rapidly north overnight. This front is shown in the first image still very far away.

MONDAY: Very mild overnight and post-midnight. As shown in Image (3) the warm front will be across Central Florida at daybreak. As noted Friday, our cold front of late yesterday would return as a warm front, and that still seems to will be the case. Expect some cloud cover as well as developing ESE winds will keep temperatures tonight from bottoming out much beyond 11pm tonight, then hold steady and maybe even warm a bit by sunrise along the coast from Miami to the Cape as the warm front passes. Winds from the S-SW just overhead at 20-25mph with surface winds from the ESE-SE and increased moisture could induce rain showers along the east coast along the front itself, which will slow its northward trek during the day. Low level convergence along the front due to the shearing wind profiles, coupled with increasing winds at the surface and just overhead coupled with increasing moisture throughout the boundary layer near the front could result in a strong thunderstorm with some rotation from near Cape Canaveral to Daytona and inland along SR 528 toward Orlando and Ocala during a critical time frame between noon-3pm before the warm front gets its second thrust of moment to move further north of Jacksonville.
Timing is all critical. If things do not come together "just right" the risk of a strong thunderstorm (or any thunderstorm for that matter) quickly dwindles. But do keep the time frame from around 6AM - 2pm in mind for the chance of rain or a thunderstorm with gusty winds possible. Winds become SSE-S during the day in the 15-22mph range under partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies by late afternoon once the warm front clears north of I-4 and quickly passes the Jacksonville area. Afternoon highs on Monday in the mid-70s with even some upper 70s across much of the state other than the I-10 corridor. Maybe even a low 80 or two over South Florida.

LATE MONDAY-TUESDAY: As expected, the cold front will be slow to sink south into Central Florida which is where the timing disparity from yesterday's post bears mention. Anticipated it would take all day Tuesday to clear the area, but that might have not been slow enough! That's the beneficial part. Granted, we'll be hearing all about winter weather woes not too far to the north, but for folks south of a Daytona - Brooksville line it'll be a totally different animal. North of that line is where the greater chance of persistent cloud cover and light rain will increase, getting increasingly worse (wetter and colder) the further north one goes, particularly north of the Florida/Georgia border as was alluded to two days ago. Another mild-night over night Monday and warm on Tuesday with highs in the mid-upper 70s despite cloud cover. Winds SSW-SW all day.

TUESDAY: Continued very mild. It was previously thought the cold front would be slowly crossing Central Florida during the first half of the day, but it now appears it will be delayed by a good 18-24 hours. Another warm day but cloudy or mostly cloudy with minimal rain chances. By now the low pressure area will have cleared the east coast and will be riding along or close to the mid-Atlantic coast line with all the dynamics stretched out. This system though, will begin to phase somewhat with a separate system that will have greatly impacted the Central Plains from Colorado, Kansas, Northern Oklahoma east across result will be a broad expanse of snow cover and cold air for much of the NE states and around the Great Lakes as very cold air sinks south out of Canada across that same area setting the stage for a very cold second half of the week across these locations.

WEDNESDAY: With all the dynamics and bulk of the moisture concentrated about the complex storm encompassing the Northeast Quadrant of the U.S., the front will eventually cross Central Florida in a much dilapidated state. Timing would have it now crossing Central Florida the first half of the morning hours on Wednesday. Will it take even longer? Very hard to believe so at this point, but a further delay toward noon time isn't totally out of the question. Wednesday is very sketchy in regards to cloud cover as well. A secondary impulse will provide the momentum to give the front the necessary shove south, but may also produce increased cloud cover and holding temperatures below what we will have bask in on Monday and Tuesday.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY: Front will finally move south one way or the other, and barely affect extreme South Florida. No humongous temperature drops. This morning might very have well been the coldest morning we'll feel for the next 5-6 days. That wasn't so bad now was it? Looking at lows in the mid-upper 40s and highs in the mid-upper 60s and 70s to the far South. Coldest of locations for Central and South Florida will be on the west side of the state, permeating into the Orlando area and south toward Naples.

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