|Cape Canaveral Late Thursday Afternoon|
The KSC sounding came in with CAP strength of 3, less over all atmospheric moisture spread evenly up the column, though temps aloft remain about the same. It's the moisture distribution that is the issue, so unless that changes and that particular condition is representative of a large area...then storms will be harder to come by for the most part.
Noting that guidance has shifted around quite a bit over the past several hours and has, in general, been on a downward trend since earlier this morning. But will the tides turn for a reversal as the morning wears into the afternoon? It always could but will go with what can be found at this hour and let the chips fall where they may...which is about what the case ends up being anyway.
Radar images from yesterday afternoon. Yellow boxes are severe thunderstorm warnings.
THIS AFTERNOON: Some showers could form along the east coast sea breeze but not expecting much more than that, steering remains to the east per the sounding though which was a bit not what I was expecting to see from what the models were showing...another fly in the ointment. Steering toward the east at around 10 knts...but expect delayed initiation though there is little to no inversion this morning but the convective temperature was 92F ..the sky is brighter..which would spell noon time initiation..but if moisture isn't right...there will be nothing to initiate which is an issue. All holds barred to the lower coverage, would point to inland coverage boundaries mainly late across the Western Glades and parts of SW Florida then up along I27 mainly into Lake County / Ocala and down toward Bok Tower and some points further east to the Western MCO suburbs. Perhaps weaker activity dead Central to eastern side a bit but the focus should be later with a prevailing east coast sea breeze as the day wears on.
NOTE: It is possible that areas outlined to the north will shift more toward the east to Western Volusia south toward Sanford, down town MCO toward Central Osceola but not holding any bets on that this hour
WEEKEND: Today might be a 'dry slot' day as noted above, but not so sure that indicates a trend. Would continue with inland chances of showers/storms and in general, very 'summer - typical' with a few strong storms with slightly colder than the norm temperatures aloft but won't go into details in regard to timing and location at this juncture.