"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Friday, April 19, 2013

Chance a Strong Storm Today East Side North Half

As noted above: There is the potential for a strong storm today which could even go renegade briefly severe near the immediate east coast from Brevard County and north after 5pm -8pm. As usual,  even that chance though is in the minutiae
TODAY:  A cold front will be making its way across the Panhandle today and into Central later tonight. Meanwhile, breezy SSE-S winds developing by early afternoon, most notable closest to the beaches with winds nearly parallel to the coast running up the river ways. Just above ground level winds are more south to SSW and then above the mid level curve to westerly with increasing Jet stream level winds mostly late today from the NNW resulting in mid-upper level cyclonic curvature. 

Temperatures aloft will start cold enough for very strong storms but are expected to warm a bit as the day wears on. This alone could offset the chances for  storms but will go with localized coastal affects and potential southward (or northward) outflows from showers and storms toward north Florida to potentially result in added low level convergence that could negate any warming aloft especially along and east of I-95.  Instability is not forecast to be all that strong nor are winds aloft  as they were several days ago on the day of the Tornado Watch. 

Would be particularly interested to see if any storms propagate along the sea breeze frontals  boundary either from the North or from the South today due to outflow propagation, those would be the storms if any occur (in such cases it is usually only one somewhere between Brevard to Ormond Beach) to watch for, which is mostly what this post alludes to.  Given the increasing upper level divergence coincident with the late afternoon favorable time for any shower/storm activity anyway, some showers or thunder could persist until after dark. The Brevard area could also have an added parameter created by the Lake Okeechobee shadow as was the case the other day when early day thunder first formed before the strong storms did.

SATURDAY: Guidance is in agreement that the front will make it to somewhere between Ft Pierce toward West Palm before the parent low well to the NNE is no longer an influence to drag it further down the state. In that regard, best rain chances of Saturday look to be from South Brevard and South, but models have jumped around on the northern extent potentially getting into North Brevard. 

SUNDAY:The boundary then on Saturday night into Sunday gets aligned as a modified inverted trough from S. Florida across Central and North eastward into the Atlantic. By this time colder air aloft will be in place, but also the chance of increased cloud coverage. Regardless, guidance is showing respectable instability mainly across the South half of the state. This, combined with divergence aloft and the presence of the boundary serving as a focal point for low level convergence could perpetuate another cause for more rain/ thunder chances into mid week until the next front approaches changing the game plan again, but there is still a game on going. 

That said, this weekend and into mid-week I'd expect forecasts to vary across the air waves in regard to when and where it will rain. The biggest question mark I can see is Saturday for most of Central and North where it might remain dry mostly.  Not everyone will be getting a lot of rain any one single day necessarily if at all,  but some places could end up with a little surprise package in the rain cage. Temperatures running status quo as those of late with no big changes one way or the other in that regard.  

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