"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Sunday, May 5, 2019

Strong Storms Again Possible Today - Not a Good Beach Afternoon

Late Saturday afternoon  of May 4, 2019 facing South toward the Cocoa Beach Pier from Cape Canaveral
Today: Not much change in thinking in regard to today's weather set up and eventual outcome as the day progresses from late morning into mid afternoon.

A similar set up in the atmosphere per surface instability forecasts with a dry layer in the mid levels   combined with similar temperature profiles  aloft are all forecast to be present. Winds aloft today appear to be just a bit stronger,and as such the east coast Sea Breeze particularly north of Vero Beach might not be able to work as far inland as it did yesterday (for example, west of I-95) if at all. Without a sea breeze at all the whole 'forumla' will significantly change (namely the risk of stronger storms , or at least coverage of them, will be greatly reduced).

On the other hand, with the drier air aloft and strong instability at the surface forecast and similar colder air aloft it is again expected we'll see another round of storm activity to progress initially from the west side of the state eastward , mainly south of a line running from Cedar Key (West Coast) to Southern Flagler County (East Coast) southward toward Southern Palm Beach County (even interior Dade).

There is a bit of a 'condition' however in all this, that being any precedent cloud cover could put a bit of a damper on storm strength and/or coverage. All in all, most guidance suggests the most active areas will be  in the area noted below.

Blog Forecast For Most Active Areas

Below is the Official Storm Prediction Center's (SPC) Outlook for the areas most likely to be impacted by the 'Marginal Risk of Severe" storm activity

Inevitably, there will be a variation from yesterday. There were a few 'minimally severe wind reports' yesterday , but the majority of wind reports came in at the 40-45mph range, which is again expected to be the case today in and near the stronger storms . There was also a 1.00" hail report.  The other difference today might be a slightly earlier onset and hence east ward progression of the main storm focus by an hour or so, from yesterday.

MONDAY: Weak mid-level trough and associated surface 'front' and co-located moisture band will be working down the state as the day progresses. The boundary should lie almost directly 'west-east' across the state around 2-3pm tomorrow afternoon . 

Instability looks ample enough for fast moving 'showers' and maybe some thunder, but the storm risk appears at this time to be substantially lower and limited perhaps more to the East Coast south of Ft Pierce. Rain chances however, do exist mainly from near Cape Canaveral or Melbourne southward .

TUESDAY-FRIDAY: East wind will bring drier air and typical morning and afternoon temperatures. Mornings in the lower 70Fs at the coast (60Fs inland) and afternoons in the lower 80Fs (coast) and mid-upper 80Fs inland. There may be a period of time Tuesday and/or Wednesday for some shallow onshore type showers to work toward the coast, but the chance is quite low as things appear this hour of writing.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY: As we work from Friday into the weekend, thunderstorm chances may well return with much warmer temperatures as well, with muggy low-mid 90Fs a possibility over the interior.

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