"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Thursday, December 20, 2012

'Winter Like Conditions' To Arrive Nearly to the Minute Florida

Old man winter came in with a blast.
Oh, how I wish, he...
Were a thing of the past!

Every time I open the door -
Snow, sleet, wind, rush in
Will there be more ?!

We crawl under covers
And hide in our heads.
Like Rip Van Winkle, some stay in bed.
See link for the details, no need to dread.
The earliest winter since 1896 arrives with the solstice 
at 6:12 A.M. on December 21 (EST)

TODAY: Warm right along the A1A before sunrise with the porch now near 70F, yet inland and even at the Space Center we see temperatures in the 50Fs. Regardless, winds becoming SSW by late morning toward noon time; warm, with highs in the low and mid-80Fs with potentially near record high temperatures in a few locations for the date. Previous record highs for this date indicated. All but Orlando seem to hold the chance to break it, but could come close to tying it. Per the National Weather Service out of Melbourne, FL:
DAYTONA BEACH  83F  1990  
ORLANDO        86F  1924  
MELBOURNE      83F  1974, 1971, 1946  
VERO BEACH     83F  1965

Otherwise, a frontal boundary will be crossing the panhandle and into North and North Central Florida into the mid evening and after midnight. Showers and maybe some rumbles mainly north of I-4, although a quick spurt could occur as far south as into South Central . Either way, this will be occurring after dark in regard to Central Florida proper and end by sunrise with quickly clearing skies on Friday.

Guidance indicates the front will be cross the the Canaveral to South Tampa Central Dividing Line during the official astronomical onset of Winter with a
vengeance. Having moved into South Brevard at least by sunrise.

WSW winds quickly shifting to WNW-NW prior to sunrise along that line of demarcation and shifting southward quickly into mid morning. Much drier air follows the boundary. Temperatures in Central, in general, will be warmer at 3-4AM than we will experience for over the next 48 hours.

Accompanying the drier and much cooler air (relatively speaking, it's going to feel down right cold after sunset by a few hours since it has been quite some time we've experience the over-taking of such an 'air mass') will be breezy conditions. 

Highs from Central toward North Brevard and north might luckily crack 60F with winds in the 18-28mph much of the day, especially early to mid-afternoon as heating aloft mixes stronger winds aloft to the ground all the while cold air advection (continued influx of cold air from the north) will be in full throttle mode from the NW. Continued breezy overnight as temperatures fall in the mid-upper 30Fs interior North Central zones and parts of South Central while east coast 'immediates' will be closer toward 43-46F. 46F has been a bit of a 'magic number' for initial cold spell outbreaks along the barrier island A1A strip of the Cocoa Beach area in the past noted historically over years of experience.  I suspect wind chill advisories will be hoisted for Friday night into Saturday late morning.

SATURDAY: The all out coldest day of the season thus far, with the afternoon potentially not reaching 60F north of Melbourne to Tampa and lows quickly falling as sunset approaches .  It will not be quite as breezy though with lows in the 30Fs range possibly as far south as the North Shore of Lake Okeechobee. Again, the outer barriers will escape the worst with the wind still up blowing across warmer river waters.  Could see lows along A1A near 39-44F north of Satellite Beach or Canaveral but colder in land. Highs in the mid-50Fs, although near the North Brevard to North Tampa line and norht of there low 50Fs are possible. Any warmth (the high for the day), will be for only an hour or two, even if we do crack 60F.

SUNDAY: Another cold morning with drainage flow beginning to become a larger influence as winds decrease. A1A from Canaveral South might not feel the sting quite as much this morning with the afternoon warming a few degrees.

MONDAY: Winds lightly coming from off the ocean, so that by afternoon conditions will be easily tolerable and approaching comfortable. This is Christmas Eve, with highs in the upper 60Fs - lower 70Fs.

CHRISTMAS DAY: Quite pleasant with light winds and highs in the 70Fs.

The next big storm system I suspect will be making big time headlines from the 26th, especially on December 27th..and the 28th. Impacted areas of big snows could be from the Mountains of North Carolina toward the coast of the Mid Atlantic near Eastern Virginia, Maryland, Eastern PA and SE New York right into the "Sandy Storm Zone".  Whether this system will be a rain or strong storm maker for Florida is up in the air still, but so far guidance has been consistent in showing the air mass over Florida will not be as cold following that frontal boundary as it will be for the upcoming one early this Friday morning. There is yet another front to approach though toward new Years. Guidance was showing this to be a severe weather potential  but has slacked back on that one a bit. Out put waivers from run to run at this early stage of the game. Too early to say for sure.

Noting/wondering off the cuff  if the trend will be similar to two years ago when the coldest days occurred in December, followed by 2-3 months of squall line like frontal passages with severe weather into March, but not that much cold air. Only time will tell.     

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