Images: (1) General location of boundary across Central Florida at 8AM. This image also shows a surface low in the East Central Gulf of Mexico, and of equal importance(s) a weak developing low off the southeast Georgia coast which is a northern extension of the inverted trough that was stretched just off shore and parallel to the Gulf Stream yesterday. Also note a wedge of high pressure nosing down the lee of the Southern Appalachians into Northeast Florida. Not drawn in is another more pronounced slightly elevated warm front across portions of the Deep South which is responsible for very wet weather further north. (4) Satellite image shows streamer bands of cirrus moving from west to east across Florida with a deeper concentration of low or mid-level clouds just north of the boundary bisecting the state.
RECAP: Widespread and some very dense fog across a good portion of the state this morning is breaking up as I type, and will be likely all but gone by the time this post is completed. At one hour, Kissimmee was down to a visibility of zero, with Orlando International down to 1/16 of a mile, but the fog advisories have since then been lifted.
TODAY: Surface low over the Gulf will slowly move NNE today, but I believe that a more swift progress will be halted by a wedge of cool high pressure to the NE of its location as shown in the images above. As that low lifts north, the surface boundary across the peninsula does likewise to a small degree. Looks like the surface boundary might get hung up very close to or just north of Daytona Beach this afternoon before making better progress just after sunset toward just south of Jacksonville.
Most of Central Florida this afternoon will experience a southerly to southeast wind this afternoon south of the boundary and a pleasant afternoon with mainly high cirrus clouds passing overhead. The immediate coast of Brevard will be a bit cooler due to the onshore wind component north of Sebastian Inlet to Daytona. Whoever is north of the boundary on the east coast will be caught in a conundrum of being influenced by the cool wedge of high pressure combined with being on the backside of the inverted trough just offshore the coast as well as being under the clouds, as was felt over the NE portion of coastal Brevard yesterday. Just exactly where the influence will be greatest will be revealed in the 1-3pm time frame but the area very close to Ormond Beach and north looks like they will get 'wedgied' until sunset.
Otherwise, rain free today with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s (lower 70s along A1A south of the boundary). Maybe the Ft. Myers area can eke out another 84F degrees like was observed one hour there yesterday.
SATURDAY: Could see some more fog again overnight especially if we have less high clouds overnight which appears will be the case. Otherwise, no weather impacts with lows in the low-mid 60s. Winds become light to solid from the SSW tomorrow, so East Central Florida all the way up to Daytona will feel the warmth most notably that all of South Florida has felt all along. Ft Myers won't be as warm tomorrow due to a Gulf Coast waters influence.
As for that low in the Gulf. Looks like it will become absorbed/diffuse over the Florida Panhandle early in the day Saturday with its trailing cool front pushing through the eastern Panhandle and into North Central portions late in the afternoon with some showers accompanying it, but other than that area approaching Gainesville all of Central and South remain again rain free. So far, Saturday looks stellar other than some clouds through late afternoon.
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY: Here's about where I'll cut off today's post due to high uncertainty. Yes, I could simply reverberate what the models are showing as is done on TV (actually, I have NO idea what they show on "TV" on our news programs). So if you want to, watch The Weather Channel or worse (FOX Channel 3 out of Orlando)...which showed a cold front crossing Miami yesterday evening when I saw them. I will paint out a quick-n-dirty scenario though as portrayed by the morning NAM model combined with last night's GFS run sprinkled with some of the ECMWF (the morning runs are not available from my resources yet) for kicks.
So, based on the past few runs of these models, it looks like the cool front of Saturday will be very close to diagonally bisecting the state from NE to SW by just after sunset Saturday. As such, cloudiness is more assured as is a small rain chance, as far south as Brevard County over toward Sarasota, but South Florida remains unfazed. From this point out my mental flags go up.
But it gets very tricky beyond Saturday night. Just like this last boundary, it will be a very very shallow surface boundary passage (supposedly) only clearly evident in the lowest 2000ft (at most) of the atmosphere accompanied by a light NW wind, yet just above the ground the flow remains ever present from the SW event behind the boundary. Rain chances clear out beyond sunrise Sunday but will the clouds?
Additionally, the surface front is shown to clear Miami or comes close to give that area a passing blow before altogether either being pulled out to the northeast or being completely absorbed into non-existence by our saving grace this past week, strong high pressure over the eastern Bahamas and the SW Atlantic...COMBINED with high pressure building east across the eastern Gulf behind the boundary...with that said, we see that at the lowest levels we end up with high pressure directly over the peninsula on Sunday and an end to the unusually warm temperatures.
It seems apparent to me that this would be the precursor of a big warm air OVER-running event, at least in regard to cloud cover (which would also keep afternoon high temperatures lower than what will be felt today and tomorrow, and have been felt all along over South Florida). Guidance indicates enhanced cloud cover leading into Sunday afternoon and all day Monday. It looks like the Loop Current waters are either leading the NAM model astray, of if its right on somewhere across Central Florida on Monday will end up with an all day light rain event, or just a lot of clouds. It all gets very flaky actually from Saturday evening and beyond so will leave it this for now, with additional changes very very likely. In short, there's something in the time frame of late Saturday into Sunday that needs to be resolved.
Must address the Floridian's ever present concern regarding cold temperatures. We've been good to go for quite sometime (can't say the same for North Florida where its been in the upper 30s/40s, cloudy, and rainy), but how long will the comfortable temperature regime last? To provide a for instance, last nights early evening GFS was painting a statewide freeze for next Friday morning, with the Euro model a bit delayed and not quite so vigorous with the cold. The overnight GFS was less cold, seemingly falling more in line with the Euro. I mention this example because a similarly depicted scenario was initially portrayed before the Blizzard Event this week even began...showing Florida to eventually bite the big one with Jack Frost. And look what happened. Nothing. Point is, can we hold out again?! I'm not laying any money either way on this one but so far it's looking better (at least until we see what the 7AM (12z - zulu) run of the GFS reads.
Today is "Temperature Extremes and Wildfire Awareness Day" 2011 for Florida. Like previous days this week, I've copy/pasted the Information Statement composed by the National Weather Service (NWS) in Melbourne, Florida. Please read the following, consider being advised, and have a nice day. TGIF.
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
737 AM EST FRI FEB 4 2011
..FEBRUARY 4 IS TEMPERATURE EXTREMES AND WILDFIRE AWARENESS DAY
ALTHOUGH A WARM CLIMATE IS ONE OF CENTRAL FLORIDA'S GREATEST NATURAL
ASSETS...TAKEN TO THE EXTREME IT CAN BE HARMFUL AND EVEN FATAL ON
THE HOTTEST DAYS IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
OF SUMMER CAN COMBINE TO CAUSE HEAT INDICES NEAR 105 DEGREES...A
HEALTH RISK EVEN TO THOSE ACCUSTOM TO WARM WEATHER.
WHEN THE HEAT INDEX EXCEEDS 115 DEGREES...LIFE THREATENING HEAT
STROKE IS POSSIBLE. ON HOT DAYS...MAKE SURE TO DRINK PLENTY OF WATER
AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS. ALTHOUGH YOU CANT FEEL IT OR SEE
IT...ULTRAVIOLET RADIATION CAN CAUSE DAMAGE TO THE SKIN AND
EYES...EVEN ON SEEMINGLY CLOUDY DAYS.
ULTRAVIOLET RADIATION...OR SIMPLY UV RADIATION...IS STRONGEST FROM
AROUND 10 AM TO 2 PM WHEN A HIGH SUN ANGLE OCCURS. THE BODY'S QUICK
RESPONSE TO EXCESSIVE UV RADIATION IS SUNBURN...WHICH CAN HAPPEN IN
ONLY A MATTER OF MINUTES. EXCESSIVE EXPOSURE HAS BEEN PROVEN TO
CAUSE POTENTIALLY FATAL SKIN CANCERS OR CATARACTS...A FORM OF
BLINDNESS. ABOUT 90 PERCENT OF ALL SKIN CANCER CASES ARE LINKED TO
UV RADIATION. PUT ON SUNBLOCK BEFORE ENGAGING IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
FREEZING TEMPERATURES OCCUR IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA EACH WINTER.
ASIDE FROM HUMAN IMPACTS WITH COLD NIGHT TIME TEMPERATURES AND
DANGEROUS WIND CHILL...FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND FROST CAN
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE WIDE RANGING AGRICULTURAL INDUSTRY. DURING
COLD EVENTS...BE EXTREMELY CAREFUL WHEN USING PORTABLE HEATERS...AS
DEATHS OFTEN OCCUR AS A RESULT OF FAULTY EQUIPMENT OR FROM IMPROPER
USE. NEVER USE CANDLES OR COOKING GRILLS TO HEAT INDOOR
ENVIRONMENTS. A HOME FIRE MAY RESULT AS WELL AS THE LIKELIHOOD OF
DEADLY CARBON MONOXIDE POISONING.
THE THREAT OF WILDFIRE IS MOST PRONOUNCED FROM MARCH THROUGH MAY
WHEN THE DRY SEASON COINCIDES WITH INCREASING SUN ANGLE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES. OCCASIONALLY THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPARK WILDFIRES. WHEN
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR THE RAPID SPREAD OF WILDFIRES...THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ISSUES FIRE WEATHER WATCHES AND RED FLAG
WARNINGS WHICH INDICATE THE GEOGRAPHIC LOCATION AND SPECIFIC DAYS
WHEN HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXIST.
IN RECENT YEARS...WILDFIRES HAVE BECOME A LARGER THREAT TO LIFE AND
PROPERTY DUE TO THE EXPANSION OF URBANIZED AREAS ACROSS THE STATE.
MOST CENTRAL FLORIDA WILDFIRES ARE THE RESULT OF HUMAN CAUSED
IGNITION. ONLY DISCARD CIGARETTES OR MATCHES IN A CLOSED CONTAINER.
OUTDOOR BURNING SHOULD BE CONDUCTED BY TRAINED PERSONNEL DURING
PROPER WEATHER CONDITIONS AND USING ADEQUATE EQUIPMENT.
INFORMATION REGARDING EXTREME TEMPERATURES AND WEATHER CONDITIONS
CONDUCIVE TO THE SPREADING OF WILDFIRES CAN BE OBTAINED BY VISITING
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/MELBOURNE AND CLICKING ON THE HAZARDS IMAGE AT THE
BOTTOM OF THE WEB PAGE.