"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Saturday, November 21, 2015

Potential For 'Good' Rainfall Accumulations North Central Through Early Sunday - Much Cooler Monday

Disney Mystery Cruise - Late Afternoon,  November 2014
TODAY: Little change from previous post along with the continued disagreements between the NAM and GFS model runs. The NAM has upper level "voriticity' fields crossing the state mainly later today into this evening from the Central Gulf across mainly South Central Florida while the GFS holds off until tonight through early Sunday further north to North Central. Thus, timing and the location of any better rainfall totals is in debate. Regardless, cloudy skies are in the offing with an increased rain chance. 

Will continue to ride with the GFS model as latest satellite imagery does not appear to pair well with where the NAM is showing the energy to already be located. On the other hand, GFS output shows that its energy fields have yet to even truly evolve(not until at least later today toward the southern tip of Louisiana) - big difference.

The GFS and NAM and even the short term RAP all imply a warm front like boundary lifting north toward Central Florida by the noon time frame which might act as a convergence boundary catalyst to initiate some showers and even some thunder. If so, the boundary could lift as far north as I-4 if not even toward I10. Where that boundary ends up and wavers/halts will likely be the region to experience any potentially heavier rainfall totals. 

Will ride with 'winter climatology' and assume it might make it to I-4. Though rainfall totals might be higher in that region to even north of the boundary, the better chance of thunder would be south of the boundary to a line running from Vero Beach west to Sarasota notwithstanding the potential for lower concentration of activity almost anywhere and/or merely denser cloud coverage.

SUNDAY: Per GFS , it coughs out the best divergence aloft along the entrance region of the upper level southern branch jet accompanied by cold air aloft in the presence of an approaching frontal boundary which is to merge with the old 'warm front' to occur in the region in 'purple' of the image above sometime between 10pm tonight through sunrise Sunday morning or a bit later toward 10AM. Wouldn't be surprised to hear at least some 'elevated thunder' late tonight into the early morning as well given the cold air aloft.

Continued cloudy skies though as the front might temporarily stall across Central for the first half of the day before sliding into south Florida mid-late afternoon. The drier air though is still nearly a good 12 hours behind over North Florida.

MONDAY: Again, though the NAM and GFS differ on the location of the front itself, that is not the more important factor - and that is the arrival of drier air. 

Both concur it will arrive sometime between 5AM toward 9AM. Brisk NNW wind originally will gradually veer to North then eventually NNE.

If the NAM is correct in this regard,and climatologically it shouldn't be all that much a surprise, if some of the coolest temperatures for immediate east coaster might actually occur late afternoon Monday but this will be short lived if so. 

More than likely though, the coolest temps will be in the morning hovering at to just below the 60F mark from Cape Canaveral (but warmer south). Much cooler inland and north and south along the west half of the state toward Ft Meyers.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY : NNE winds eventually become E by Thursday. Increasing coastal stratocumulus clouds with sprinkles possible by Wednesday through Friday if not a few ground wetters but nothing beyond a few 1/100ths of an inch anticipated (compared to the potential for an inch or more this weekend in some locations).  
Cocoa Beach , Florida - Late Thanksgiving Day 2012

It still appears the warming trend will first be felt from Brevard County and south over night Tuesday night into Wednesday morning when from that time there-out temperatures will remain in the 70Fs range 24/7 but breezy up until later Friday. Choppy seas and rough surf with a tight pressure gradient only to relax as the next front approaches late weekend.

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