"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Saturday, October 21, 2017

Much Cooler WED-THUR, Next Weekend "Uncertain"

TODAY-SUNDAY: Little change  as written in yesterday's post in the short term (link opens new window).  

 Continued a bit breezy near the coast with ENE wind becoming more easterly overnight to even ESE over night before daybreak. Warmest overnight near the coast as a result of the proximity to the warmer. near-shore ocean waters.

As surface wind becomes more southerly ahead of the advertised cold front on Tuesday, there is a slight chance of patchy, mainly low level cloud cover , even a shower or two mainly along the east coast from south to north from before sunrise up through early afternoon. Guidance is not too gung-ho on the showers, but there is still that possibility.

Thus, 'heavy' rainfall not anticipated, though perhaps heavier activity might evolve toward the Ocala area and west of there later in the day as the moisture surge continues north and westward.

MONDAY: Cold front will still be approaching the Western Panhandle as solid southeast wind prevails at the surface. Chances are high clouds will begin to encroach across much of the state from early morning through mid afternoon related to at least in part storm activity over the Gulf or approaching upper level jet stream winds , with perhaps some stronger storm activity over the Western Panhandle. Due to timing earlier in the day and antecedent cloud cover, 'strong to severe' in that area might be an over-kill as surface based instability would be lacking given the earlier in the day timing and the cloud cover.  Shear does not look strong enough to compensate for lack of instability.

Further east and south though, some instability might be able to amount mainly south of  I-4 toward the east coast (perhaps); more possible south of Ft Pierce. Either way, the chance of at least rainfall increases greatly over the remainder of the peninsula working from west to east , mid-morning through mid-afternoon with possibly some embedded thunder. There's no 'strong signal' for definite thunder, however. associated with this pre-frontal activity.

TUESDAY: The GFS has slowed the front down several hours per the latest morning run, but up until this last run it had held fast to a 2PM FROPA across Central Florida, so the jury might still be out on the exact timing. Chances are a conference call is still in order before the final verdict. There be no hung jury on this one though...for....

Regardless, in the end it doesn't make all that much difference. The front  to clear all of Central prior to daybreak Wednesday on which full 'cold air advection'  (per se) will be in swing beginning mid-afternoon through sunset as skies clear later Tuesday into the evevning. There could still be some renegade showers ahead of the front on Tuesday but mostly there will be cloud cover.

WEDNESDAY: Northwest wind to start the day, with lows interior toward Southwest Florida mainly in the mid-50Fs with lower readings far north. Immediate East coast south of Daytona Beach , mainly east of US1 might still be holding in the lower 60Fs on this morning, but with full cold air advection at play during peak heating high temperatures will struggle to get past 74F or so but for far South Florida. Whether some areas ever crack 70F would be interesting to see.

THURSDAY: Still looks to be the coolest of mornings, and perhaps the coolest we might see for a while despite two more fronts on the horizon, but that's for another day.

Widespread lower to mid 50Fs interior with upper 50Fs nearer the coast as wind decreases a bit. Highs in the mid- 70Fs.

FRIDAY: Looks more certain now that 'the wind shift of end alls' will begin overnight such that by sunrise on this day one will be greeted by mid-upper 60Fs at the beaches with increasing moisture already working back on the return play. Still cooler but as cool further inland and along the west side.

SATURDAY-BEYOND: Rain chances could well already be in the offing for South Florida by morning with a chance of showers increasing northward toward the I-4 late morning through mid afternoon. Too soon to say if thunder might be at play in the mix.

SUNDAY-MONDAY: GFS shifting gears several times but at least has some semblance to the Canadian. It is now forming a weak 'surface low ' looking thing WNW of the Western Tip of Cuba which appears to take on some form of a transient sub - tropical nature, though given what it shows now it would be one of 'un-named' origin given the shear aloft. The Canadian looks to have a more definite leaning to the naming convention realm but with the low further to the east, even to miss Florida entirely as it lifts north and east. Would side more with the GFS.

On that assumption, but given how far out still in time we must project, would mention only that what what might evolve would be the risk of some severe weather or large rainfall totals 'Somewhere across the state'. The GFS earlier had the focus on the region mainly along to north of I-4 but has now taken it to South Central Florida. Either way, some large rainfall totals over a 36 - 48 hour time frame could still be in the cards for next weekend. We'll just have to wait it out for a few days more, and in the meantime get adjusted to the more certain cool down on tap for Wednesday and Thursday. It might be SO COLD we'll have to turn the air-conditioner off and open some windows.

EVEN BEYOND: Appears this front is to be the first in a family of three. The next front on board (associated with the questionable next weekend event) will be just beyond the scope of whatever happens (or doesn't happen) next weekend. Then another after that several days beyond.

So far, the trend has been that with each passing front in the great beyond that the cooling affects of them becomes less and less pronounced with time, and/or shorter lived.

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