"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Thursday, October 25, 2012

Sandy Tracks Footprints: The Double Edge Sword Storm

Clustering of forecast tracks early today with the 'cone of silence' error possibilities shown by the outer bounds of possibilities depicted in the thin yellow  bounds of possibilities per Hurricane Center's Standards
TODAY: Sandy made landfall as shown above much earlier today, but is now further north. Tropical Storm Warning now in effect up the Florida East coast (which is saying something considering how far off shore this storm is forecast to track as can also be seen in the above image).

Per GFS, heaviest rainfall is to occur on Brevard County of around an inch. On the other hand, the NAM is indicating over 7"! Big difference. More inclined to lean toward the former though, and if so, most of this will fall on Friday; however, any nudges further east reduces the rainfall potential to nearly zero.

For example, this is the NAM rainfall total forecast for the entire 'event' if there is to be a rain event at all. The GFS shows nothing of the sort though...not even close.

In regard to winds, both models concur surface winds of around sustained 40-50kts with winds just above ground toward 70 kts. It should be noted that at this stage the Hurricane Center commented upon actual observations that the upper level winds do not appear to be mixing down to the surface...on the other hand, per most models it appears they are hinting that Sandy could become somewhat Sub-Tropical in nature, then  expand vastly from its current configuration both vertically and horizontally into a much large 'system' of obscure nature resembling a Tropical System yet on the other hand, not a tropical system.  

In that regard, one could if one wishes Hope for the best and expect the worst..or expect the best and hope for the worst depending on which way one leans. Either way, the storm will do what it's going to do.

ISSUE AT HAND: The east coast of Florida will have zero preparation time once the ball gets rolling and Sandy gets into the Central portion toward north of the Bahamas, because it is at that point that the changes occur. Sandy could become a bit of a 'breathing monster' expanding outward and and on, in and out. 

In that regard, conditions 'could' suddenly go downhill without notice Saturday afternoon if the storm expands at that point in time and it is close enough to the east coast of the state to have the most detrimental effects. The NAM is especially aggressive but often tends to go over board on tropical systems despite the continuity it is showing from model run to model run...noting that other models do not seem to if they talk to each other.  The GFS is also being consistent though and has a better 'track record' so to speak.

Therefore, at a minimum it appears that a minimum worst case scenario is for sustained winds at the beaches especially of 40 to 45 mph with gusts to 50-55mph but with little rain other than on Saturday. A minimum otherwise scenario would be less wind and rain. Things can still change today though as well as into best for all interested to gather your belonging and head to California, but make it across the causeway bridges if on the barrier islands before 10AM on Saturday north of Sebastian Inlet. If not interested, kick back, but might want to pull in outside loose objects, tipping potted plants securation, and get the dog walked early.

Just Dreamin'.  Mainly, we could be seeing some power outages, especially if heavier rain falls...due to either falling limbs on wires or rain gets blown into exposed transformers. Heed the warnings and proceed as desired to suit one's self is about all there is to say. It is guaranteed we can expect turbulent seas and some beach erosion though, especially at this time of year when Autumnal High Tides tend higher than normal as it is, and as was observed yesterday locally on the beach.

What is the Double Edge? Following the passage of the system no matter what the track, the NNE winds becoming North then NNW-NW will drag COLD air down the state. Guidance is trending toward 40s and 50Fs in the morning hours in mid 50s to mid 60Fs in the afternoon going into Monday through Thursday. The thing to consider in this regard is that it has been quite some time since the state has experienced very cool air temperatures, and this could be a shock to the system. 

These types of readings are expected for at least  five days following the storm.. meaning open windows and 'A/C bill relief' as a beneficial off-shoot of the tracks in the eroded sand left behind from the other side of the sword. 

No comments: