"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Saturday, June 8, 2019

Storm (Some Strong in Coming Days) / Rain Shower Chances Continue High For Several Days

Hard Down Pours with Lightning Possible (Storm on June 7, 2017, Cape Canaveral)
TODAY: Along the same lines as previous days, with variations. Today and coming
days will be the 'Baskin Robbins' of rain chances. Each day is the same store, but with a different flavor. Some days 1 scoop, other days up to three . Chances of seeing 'cones' though will be quite slim.

Early - mid morning the atmosphere has already started out unstable, and it will become even more unstable up through early afternoon. Temperatures aloft are a bit cooler on the KSC sounding from yesterday, and if the GFS is correct (The NAM disagrees) the area from Brevard County northward is up for cooling a bit more well aloft into mid-afternoon , which would point to better mid-level lapse rates 'suddenly' some time after 1pm.   

To cut to the chase, a sea breeze 'might' be able to form mainly south of the Cape but if so will stay pegged close to the coast east of I95 if not even US1 at most (best).   

The 'going trend' on the NAM model however has a short but interesting history for today. That being, strong Vertical Velocities along the East Coast of North Central/Central Direct some time after 4pm from the surface all the way up to 20,000 ft. 

With such consistencies , it's best be forewarned of what potentials that could mean. Namely, explosive development resulting in large rainfall totals and frequent lightning (perhaps small hail at the cores?). Maybe not, but regardless, today's prospects are being indicated by the NAM and short fused HRRR model to be "Active' in nature. 

Thus, some areas could see in excess of 2.00" of rain today, with many areas seeing 1/2" - 1.00" (then again, some areas will see little to none as well).

"Bloggers Special" for today with RED ZONE indicating Potential for 'Bigger, Badder Storms"
The Storm Prediction Center's Outlook with Bloggers Addition
(I feel parts of North Florida might be too cloud covered all day to produce 'Marginal Severe" Storms)
Mid-Morning Radar (See note below)
Note: Noting the radar trends and satellite overlay above we can see activity is trending/moving eastward with a slight  leaning north as well. All in all, suspect some of the higher clouds over Central might dissipate as they aren't all 'too extensive even now'. Otherwise, given that the atmosphere is already nearly primed with a Convective Temperature on the KSC sounding of only 87F, we should get an early initiation under way within a few hours. 

With help from the West Coast Sea-breeze and future outflows from showers at large, we might see a good piling up of storms toward East Central late afternoon to dwindle well into the mid-evening hours.  

General time of first impacts for East Coast locations (namely from Brevard Southward could be as soon as 2-3 pm (already in  progress further north) with only widely scattered activity, but as boundaries begin to interact and the West Coast sea-breeze approaches, there might be a rather rapid shift in the overall character of the skies and weather from showers with some lightning to full blown storms in the 4:30-6 time frame.

SUNDAY: No official outlets are calling it, but there appears to be a better risk of 'strong' to 'marginally severe thunderstorms' across most of Central and North Central Florida tomorrow. 
Sunday continues to look like a very active day, but will re-evaluate after tonight.

NEXT WEEK: The upper level low over the Deep South will begin to open up and lift northward Sunday night as another upper trough passes further north across the Great Lakes accompanied by an unusual cold front which will work all the way to the Panhandle of Florida. The two join together as one large trough. Looks impressive for very cool to cold mornings come early next week across nearly the entire nation, save for Florida with the accompanying cold front with these combined systems (!)  

However, on the back side of the what will become an open trough (instead of closed low) comes another Speed Max from the Jet Stream down the trough's backside. This will cause it to 'Dig' further south and essentially result in a similar wind field pattern over Florida for Tuesday- Thursday, maybe even into Friday. 

It's hard to say for certain then what day we specifically have a sensible change (to the outsider) of a Real Pattern Change. Yes, the Pattern is going to change,but for all purposes weather wise it will be relatively unreasonable other than on paper. Although, suspect by mid-week the weather will take on more of a 'summer' feel too it, including more storms and rains. That meaning, less cloud cover earlier in the day. Time will tell.

Sum Total, we might see rainfall totals over 7 inches in some areas when considering All the days already we've had rains, plus those coming up. My location has already had over 2" and we're barely into the Real "Meat and Potatoes' of this synoptic situation that has been heralded to approach, which really will not be until Sunday. It was dry for a while so the soils can handle it, but in a few days we might be talking 'localized flooding issues' in the most prone areas.

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