"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Friday, January 30, 2015

Good News on The Weather Front

"While the Northeast U.S. Was in the Processes of Being Buried Under Inches of Snow ....."

...a barefoot walk on the beach was in order to celebrate the occasion.

TODAY: Cold front to cross the state through the day. The good news for east coasters?  This boundary is marking the leading edge of a pattern shift!  And?  As a result, after cold frontal passage there is high pressure building in behind it juxtaposition-ed as such that morning lows from the Cape South will be WARMER than the past several mornings.

Highs today will be across the 70Fs regime mainly south of I-4 or even from around Titusville to Tampa Bay and south with lower through upper 60Fs further north, partially restricted due to cloud cover ahead of and along the boundary. Satellite imagery is even a bit deceiving as the front is not even along what looks a bit "like"  a rope cloud which would demarcate  the frontal boundary. (note area over the Gulf west of Ocala)

SATURDAY: Cooler all areas as a result of the boundary with highs mainly across the 60Fs per guidance. Didn't look into what the cloud coverage would be but GFS shows a rapid moisture recovery at least at the lowest levels likely from onshore component flow. Wind though will pick up from the NE - ENE with time so   could feel a bit cool in the afternoon along the beaches especially north of Cape Canaveral as shelf waters have really cooled off the past few weeks with winds in the 12-20mph range. 

Thus, Saturday looks 'less than stellar' but far from what could be had this been a "Cold Air Intrusion of the Third Kind".

"Rare Frosty Morning in Cape Canaveral" - December 2010

SUNDAY: Another front will be approaching on Monday with winds becoming more Southeast to south and eventually Southwest on Monday. Highs mainly in the 70Fs with increasing clouds but not overly-cloudcast.


MONDAY: Possibly the warmest day in a while, with highs south of I-4 running through the 70Fs and maybe some lower 80Fs further south. Storms possible across the Panhandle with chance of rains further south and east into early Tuesday. Cloud cover an issue though.

TUESDAY: The pattern shift more evident now as a similar position of high pressure behind the boundary is spelling out rapid air mass recover with quick onshore return flow moderating temperatures with maybe one cooler day and then back to HARD CORE 70Fs. But cooler at the east coast beaches north of West Palm. Life's tough. 

Cold front later Tuesday could bring rains and thunder (pan-handle) .

BEYOND: Hesitations begin in this realm of time. GFS is like shifting sands on a Teutonic plate in regard to future-casts.  At one point it was showing possibly the coldest statewide days yet around February 15th but now it has shifted that out to the extra-terrestrial time zone (ETZ) of 385 hours out, which is even way beyond the LTZ (LaLa-Land Time Zone ) for model accuracy. 

The only more assured chance of rain other than maybe a sprinkle today northern parts appears to come around later Tuesday/Wednesday with the next boundary where the GFS is showing a repeat performance of the wind and temperature fields to follow that boundary similar to today's performance. 

For now will go with it just because it looks nice and tired of this unacceptably cold  "below 73F in the afternoon" regime at some locations; though, it's not often a good thing to base a forecast on one's feelings, which odd as it might sound, might actually occur at times in some unofficial circles.

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Monday, January 26, 2015

Double Barrel Fronts To Lower Temps to Below Normal Through Wednesday


TODAY: Family of cold fronts across the eastern states! One down, two to go.

Second of a series of increasingly cold  air infiltration into Florida preceded by moisture convergence along the frontal boundary and rain storms/clouds. 

Front now across the Northern Parts to lie close to Dead Central around 10AM with rapid clearing accompanied by breezy conditions on par with the other day with gusts from 25 mph to near 35 mph for a time at least (perhaps only a few hours or less). 

Otherwise, highs today might be able to reach the mid 60Fs under sunny skies eventually but it might feel a bit cooler than yesterday with the wind in open areas. Temperature falls gradually as the sun sets throughout the night. Have you noticed that it's getting darker lately?  They are about 30 minutes longer now than on December 21st. 

TUESDAY: Continued breezes but not like today under mostly sunny skies and a bit cooler with highs low 60Fs to upper 50Fs (north). Another front is going through dry on Tuesday which will bring the wind more around to the northwest to NNW as they begin to relax off more noticeably. Looks like Tuesday morning will see lower to mid 40Fs across a broad expanse with a wind bite to the air most of the day  .

WEDNESDAY: Another drop in temperatures by morning with some upper 30Fs possible inland and north but solidly in the lower 40Fs this day over a larger area of real-estate but with lighter wind. Highs also a bit lower with upper 50Fs possible from SR46 and north,   nearer to 60Fs Central give or take a degree or two, warmer south.

THURSDAY: Overnight the wind will start to turn more toward the northeast but remain light. Very cool morning in store many areas but the immediate east coast beaches especially south of The Cape might start to even warm a bit after midnight if there is enough advection to bring warmer ocean air (that is relevant to the 40Fs) to the beach. Afternoon though solidly in the upper 60Fs to near 70Fs and pleasant  as wind becomes SE.

BEYOND: Friday another front looks like it will barely eke through and mostly only mess with the winds a bit directionally speaking and increase moisture but there is no real big change otherwise with highs in the 70Fs and cooler inland lows in the mornings.

Back to seasonal norms. Any big bad storm system alluded to in the previous post from the LONG RANGE GFS as surmised might be the case is no longer in the picture, at least for today. It is now showing nothing by seasonal norms well into the first week of February and even later than that, but again, wouldn't bet on it.

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Saturday, January 24, 2015

Cold Front Roller Coaster Sweeps In - Two More To Go

TODAY: As notable, it's a bit breezy outside across most parts of Florida both ahead of and behind the boundary. Gusts to 35 mph have been reported but are mostly in the 20-30 mph range,  A very brief 'tornado' was reported near Englewood at 3:50 AM but cannot say as yet if that is officially confirmed.

Otherwise, the story will be when will the sun re-appear? Theoretically it could begin to emerge by around 1-2pm  Central (from North to South) as the air is quite dry back up in Southeast Alabama, there the satellite imagery continues to show some clouds back up that way. Could  go with at least partial clearing and possibly much more, but tempted to say, 'cloudy for the most part the rest of the day' to varying degrees with a few breaks late possible but not even definite on that. Temperatures this afternoon thus will largely be contingent on the cloud cover in the midst of cold air advection. Looking for highs in the lower 60Fs but that is suspect to favor upper 50Fs to mid-50Fs . We have a lot of mixing going on at the low levels so that alone might keep the temperatures up a bit until after dark when the driest of air arrives.

SUNDAY: Much cooler with lows ranging mainly through the 40Fs range and highs varying from upper 50Fs (North) to mid 60Fs Central. Wind much more subdued though.

MONDAY: Another system per water vapor satellite animations is spilling east and  south out of the Northern Rockies. A surface low will be forming on the Lee Side of the Mountains to trounce first SE then more ESE to eventually east passing well north of Florida. It will be trailing a cold front en-vogue with it though, which appears will be near North to Central Florida by sunrise or shortly there-after on Monday. More cloud cover and possibly some brief sprinkles to accompany this boundary (but no storms anticipated) with more gusty winds but not as gusty as today.

TUESDAY: Front will have cleared with a cold morning in store. Lows in the mid-upper 30Fs west and north of Orlando and closer to low-mid 40Fs elsewhere; overall could be 40Fs nearly statewide with a cool afternoon in the upper 50Fs to low 60Fs south. This appears will the coldest of all days in sync a bit with a few of November of last year.  Wind much lighter but not so light we might not have wind chill advisories.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: Cool mornings moderating with slowly warming days up to the 70Fs by Thursday as the next front approaches for Friday. So far, this boundary is expected to wash out across Central Florida and the cool spell, if so, is over for quite some time other than cool inland morning lows. If this boundary does wash out rain chances might be back in the picture Friday into the following weekend.

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Friday, January 23, 2015

Becoming Cloudier But Warm, Showers Possible Late (Central) / Storms North

"Fall Streak" On Thursday Morning over Cape Canaveral
TODAY: Wind veering to SSE-South during the day and a bit breezier than the past few days. Cold front and associated rains are readily visible on radar over the Panhandle in the pre-dawn hours with the lightning mainly remaining over the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream. Suspect this will remain to be the case until mid-morning where storms might ease   to inland near Tallahassee east toward JAX and south to Gainesville with time.

Further south into Central/South, remaining mostly dry with increasing clouds with highs through the 70Fs range contingent upon cloud cover. Chance of showers as far south as a Melbourne to South Tampa Bay line heading toward early evening near and after dark with the better chance before dark closer to the west coast north of the Brandon area. 

NOTE: This post is running on the conservative side as what could otherwise be   worded toward the  'favoring storms' convention. For now, not seeing it. Guidance over the past days since the previous post has been fairly consistent to imply 'no storms' today ; but perhaps on Saturday for Central and South except maybe along or North of the I-4.

Conservative Approach On Storm Coverage, The Orange is to show the Low End Chance of Thunder with Green Implying better the chance of showers will low rainfall accumulation (quick in passing)

SATURDAY: Cold front advancing south and east from I-4 by dawn to be across "Dead Central" between 9AM - noon time. Chance of showers with possible thunder to accompany the boundary in the presence of strong wind speed shear but very weak instability and directional shear. As a result, though thunder might accompany the activity, wind could still be a bit of an issue during and after boundary passage. Wouldn't be surprised to see Small Lake Advisories (etc..) and Small Craft Advisories hoisted for winds gusting to 30-35+mph as a result. Highs holding steady to dropping slowly during day light hours in the mid-upper 60Fs (warmer south) and falling slowly toward dark. Wind also quickly subsides after dark as the front by then will have cleared the state.

SUNDAY:Much cooler all day with lows ranging from low-upper 40Fs depending on how far north and inland one is located with a high in the upper 50Fs to lower 60Fs but very pleasant otherwise. Only 50Fs near and north of I4.

BEYOND: Another low pressure area much further north to cross the east central U.S. One if not two more fronts will rotate around that low as it moves east and north in coming days, bringing in another shot of colder air   toward Tuesday or Wednesday and perhaps another one after that similar to the one on Sunday. In between those reinforcing cool air intrusions we might see a warmer day in the lower 70Fs but mostly we'll be seeing westerly component winds and dryer air with no rain for quite a while.

"Fall Streak" and "Cloud Punch" (bottom right)

GREAT DREAM BEYOND: First few days of February might see something like a repeat performance in regard to the rain chances set up which will mean to watch for the severe weather potential once again, but as alluded to in the previous post, too far in time for anything but itching eyes wanting to see something that might never manifest.  


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Wednesday, January 21, 2015

Strong/Near Severe Possible North Friday - Much Cooler Next Week

January Mornings in Cape Canaveral
TODAY: Pleasant weather in store as noted and expected. Another 'boundary' to slide by later today with little impact other than a wind shift. Other than that, mostly clear to a few clouds with cool mornings and pleasant afternoons with light wind and very cool ocean air at the beaches especially north of Ft Pierce, more so north of Cape Canaveral.  On this date back in ...see image. The warm temperatures all reflect pre-frontal passage overnight prior to temperature falls and not afternoon highs.



THURSDAY: Cool start to the day with east coast sea breeze more noticeable at the beaches and perhaps some increase in lower clouds especially south half of state. NAM introduces some showers toward the west coast but for now would disregard.

FRIDAY: Winds becoming southerly overnight Thursday and picking up from the S-SSW during the day. Warmer with highs in the mid-70Fs but increasing high clouds as frontal boundary and accompanying broad surface low works along the Gulf Coast toward South Georgia through the day poised toward Coastal North Carolina in the days following. 

Chance of severe storms mainly Panhandle;  though instability is very low,  wind shear and helicity values from surface to 3KM are there along with cold air aloft, so severe or strong storms is possible along what looks like a pre-frontal like boundary . Further south the chance gets less likely due to lack of low level convergence along any formidable boundary , but there is always a remote chance of something popping up after early afternoon through dark but for now would have to be very isolated. Best chance of rain if any would be late afternoon south of I-4 toward 9pm, but so far indications are that it might not be in the form of storms despite the bulk shear in place.


SATURDAY: Front to cross Central Florida between 5AM -9AM Saturday morning. Could still be accompanied by thunder , as what appears might be a thin line of precipitation accompanies it but more than likely will end up being rain-showers but can't say never as vertical velocities are there and so is the helicity. Temperatures on Saturday Central will likely hold steady most of the day with clearing late morning hours as cold air advection moves in on WNW winds around 20 mph, probably in the mid-upper 60Fs.

SUNDAY: Much colder than of late with lows in the lower to mid 40Fs in some locations through and into the mid 50Fs to the South. Continued dry with WNW winds all day but not so cold in the afternoon with highs nearing 70Fs South half.

MONDAY: A little warmer and could be  very nice but another front  is on the way and then:  " Bombs away, prepare the 'muffs - n - mitts' for battle! "

TUESDAY: Coldest day possibly since last November with 'might'  be some upper 30Fs to lower 40Fs over a broad expanse and for the second time now a chance parts of Central and all of North will never see 60F with mid 50Fs more common.

WED-THURSDAY: Continued with colder mornings with perhaps yet another boundary sliding through sometime on Wednesday for a cold Thursday start. After Thursday and into Friday though it appears the shenanigans will be over and hopefully that 's it for the Winter~!   (good luck on that one though, but at least in regard for an extended period not that this winter has been all so bad anyway).

BEYOND: Watching Feb 1 -Feb 3. This is too far out in time for model accuracy in any way - shape - or form, but signals are hinting at perhaps the first severe weather outbreak in the Deep South (including parts of Florida) for  2015 . That could be switched off though at any time, but worth eyeing for kicks. 

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Monday, January 19, 2015

Chamber of Commerce Weather Through Wednesday - Rain / 'Possible' Storms Friday

"Sunday Morning"
TODAY: New week and new pattern slowly appears to be emerging. A 'string of days' of much more pleasant weather with moderating temperatures and for a change light wind to near calm and mostly sunny skies except late tonight to parts of Tuesday. High pressure across North Florida to cross the state and exit off shore but close enough to allow a near zero pressure gradient meaning light winds. With no influx of cold air on the horizon over night temperatures could fall due to drainage flow, but high clouds might be on the way tonight and early Tuesday which would prevent them from falling as far as they could otherwise. Highs in the lower 70Fs but coastal locales north of Cocoa Beach will be a bit cooler especially on the North side of the Cape due to very cool near shore shelf waters of the Atlantic. Even a few blocks in from the ocean will make a big difference between comfortable too 'who turned up the A/C ?!!' on the beach.

High Clouds Tonight implied by The GFS and seen on Satellite Animation approaching

TUESDAY: After a possible cloudy start from high clouds, they are shown to 'pull out' in the early to mid afternoon; highs in the lower-mid-70Fs otherwise

WEDNESDAY: Light onshore flow will keep the coast again cooler but afternoon highs warming. Latest implication however is that a Southwest flow might develop such that mid-upper 70Fs and even some lower 80Fs south of I-4 are possible (mainly inland) No rain foreseen in this pattern as a weak circulation attempts to form a surface low near the Loop Current in the East Central Gulf of Mexico.

THURSDAY: Increasing high clouds especially later in the day as low moves toward the I-4 though it is very weak at that time. Showers and rain already possible over the panhandle with highs in the 70Fs. Lows mainly in the 50Fs to lower 60Fs if not some mid 60Fs mainly south and near the beaches south of the Cape.

FRIDAY: GFS for three runs now has shown deep layer shear in the wind profiles even down to nearly 2000 ft (though weak at lowest levels) from a line running from Cape Canaveral and north, more so near I-4. GFS shows very low instability though, and the jet stream will probably be running a bit too far north with little divergence which implies storm chances despite the shear would be low, but things could change . It's just to far out in time for now; but given the degree of shear shown though it is not totally out of the question some storms, maybe even strong could occur, but wouldn't hang a hat on that one just yet. Otherwise, Friday appears to be the best chance for rain from early afternoon through dark spreading east and south with time.

NEXT WEEKEND: Return to cooler weather for a string of days. Just how cold ? Too far out in time for model accuracy in regard to how cold and for how long but there might be several days in a row with a westerly surface wind component, something rare so far this winter which would mean very cool overnights and very pleasant afternoons. It is the coastal locations north of Sebastian inlet that would notice this the most in regard to afternoon high temperatures in the absence of onshore flow advecting cold shelf water air onto the beaches whereas inland 'status quo' temperatures would be the general consensus.

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Wednesday, January 14, 2015

"Indecent Exposure" through Thursday?

TODAY - THURSDAY: Temperatures  will largely be contingent upon cloud coverage. The overall impression is very cool afternoons along and north of the I-4 for several days and warmer to 'varying degrees' mainly from a North Brevard County to North Tampa Bay line and south during the afternoons. 

Continuous northerly flow varying from NNW-NNE could advect cool marine air down the east coast toward Canaveral during the afternoons and warmer elsewhere only a few miles away. Cloud coverage looks to be a big issue up through the first half of Friday before a final cold front swings past bringing a deeper overall drying to the atmosphere over the state at all atmospheric levels.

 Inevitably, the 'dankest' air quality will be right on or near the east coast beaches from Brevard County and north, mainly north of Melbourne or Cocoa Beach , though  much of which is contingent upon individual preferences and tolerances. Overall though, it appears we will be running just a bit below normal, though overnight lows aren't all below normal at all, it will be the afternoons that are in question.

FRIDAY: Though there is a chance of light rains  (mainly North half of state) overnight  late Thursday into early Friday, it appears the moisture depth will drop southward during the early part of the day permitting for a better chance of sunshine most areas by the afternoon, but at the same time, cold air advection will be in swing continuing the prospects for cooler (but not cold temperatures). 

We still might see some lower 70Fs as official forecasts are showing, but along the immediate east coast particularly north of Sebastian Inlet or Melbourne Beach this becomes much more speculative considering ocean temperatures are running in the mid 60Fs if not cooler right now north of the buoys near the Jetty at Cape Canaveral 9 which is at 65F this morning).  It's usually colder on the near shore waters north of the Cape toward Daytona and Ormond beach for example by several degrees. Any wind coming off that water accompanied by cloud cover will inevitably be very cool feeling.

BEYOND: Warmer over the weekend with near normal temperatures more assuredly.

GREAT BEYOND: Nothing beyond the norm for days to come, and no 'sig' prospects for a concerted effort to produce large or even mediocre measurable rainfall totals is foreseen for the next 8 Days as of this morning.  Rainfall totals the other day exceeded 2 to even 3" inches in some locations, getting near record values here and there.

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Monday, January 12, 2015

Chance of Thunderstorms Remains for Later Today

JANUARY 5, 2014 , Cape Canaveral
TODAY: Brief post as little to be written from previous post (yesterday). Chance of thunderstorms today continues from mainly regions south of I-10 and near and north of Lake Okeechobee, with the signals of a more refined area pointing toward Central Florida as of the mid-morning hour. 

As noted previously, light to moderate instability in the absence of any low level shear with no discernible boundaries and only weak mid-level shear with weak divergence aloft (though it is cold aloft) should lead to some thunderstorms today , mainly inland from the immediate east coast though not exclusively so. Some areas could see up to an inch of rain but many are more likely to see in the .20" - .40" range (less than 1/2 inch), with perhaps some areas receiving more of a lighter but longer 'soaking' and/or a more dense overcast sky later today as opposed to rains.


The bigger 'storms' might first initiate toward the West Coast and spread a canopy of high to mid level clouds eastward which would then turn down the convective oven's energy level (lower the CAPE - Convective Available Potential Energy due to precedent cloud cover), but some 'voracity (spell check for 'vorticity)' coming across Central seems to be the prime impetus to keep some of the activity rolling along and off shore mainly Central to North Florida. North Florida will see weaker Cape and not sure the vorticity impulses will cross that region quite as fully to warrant a strong storm outcry much of anywhere today other than an isolated  stronger huff and puff here or there.

Rains should end by early evening post-dark most regions but some areas will likely still be seeing at least some drips up through 9pm .

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: Same as previous post with near to just above normal temperatures, mainly because of warmer overnight lows.

THURSDAY: The GFS has shifted gears to a low to non-existent storm threat; however, will watch this as that is quite a shift in gears from several previous model runs and not fully sold yet on the lesser rain chances until we see some consistency on what spits out from the GFS in upcoming generations. Two more runs will tell the story though more than likely. OTHERWISE...

INTO FRIDAY: Friday looks to be the 'coldest' morning (40Fs and lower 50Fs mainly) for quite some time to come with a slow warming trend beyond until Sunday. Like last Sunday, as the warmth returns it brings with it deeper moisture and coastal rain chances. 

BEYOND; The other difference now from the previous guidance is an increasing coastal rain chance in the extended. That too will be worth a watching for as the latest is actually indicating measurable rain amounts for a few consecutive days going into early next week. Suspect this all might be coming from an overnight model bias of the 06Z (1AM EST) GFS run ( not using any other model guidance at this time for this blogpost), and as such, it will be interesting to see what emerges later today and tomorrow in subsequent guidance.  

The End.  

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Sunday, January 11, 2015

Storms Possible Monday/Thursday But Warm Once Again

January 3rd last year (2014) On a Cold Start to the Day 

TODAY: Coastal showers and warmer as the 70F degree isotherm moved in on the East Central coast during the mid-morning hours. Patchy cloudy cover with a few showers continue widely apart and more could occur most any time, possibly more likely at or near sunset but the better chance favors overall to be dry with an uptick in the late night to overnight hours from the Cape and north. Overnight lows tonight much milder through the 60Fs range after highs today in the mid-upper 70Fs with some spotty low 80Fs. Early morning fog could develop inland but chances look very slim.

MONDAY: Chance of showers and thunderstorms . Guidance insists on some decent winter time CAPE running around 1500-1800 and some bulk shear across Central to North Central Florida. Some thunder could occur as far north is I-10 but instability is further limited there. Temperatures aloft will be quite cold in the mid-levels tomorrow so there is a chance of some good wind gusts in or near storms if we can get any surface based storms well rooted. Lacking will be any discernible low level boundaries and better bulk shear for stronger storms, and the sea breezes this time of year are not conducive to deep convection since ocean temperatures are so cold (except modified well inland). Storms or showers could begin by noon time, though some early morning coastal activity is always possible.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: Fairly mundane pattern returns with a lite to moderate NE breeze 24/7. Though coastal showers are possible most any time the chances are very low . It would be presumptuous to attempt to pinpoint exactly where and/or when this far in advance. Temperatures will be mild though with lows ranging through the 60Fs and highs in the lower to mid 70Fs (inland). In general , fairly 'normal' but overnight lows above normal for this time of year.

THURSDAY: Guidance implies a weak surface circulation near the Loop Current west of Tampa could form as more upper level energy ejects eastward off Southern Mexico toward Florida.  Thursday looks (for now) to be a real
 Scooper :  in and out "Wham Bam but no Mayhem" but not without a definite signature of a wash out or nearly so,  for if not rain and elevated thunder with some gusty wind possible then plain rain with clouds later and little drying possible of wet grounds due to cloud cover. 

At least it won't be cold enough to sleet though with 60Fs and lower 70Fs mostly. Winds aloft on Thursday will be stronger as will bulk shear, but now this day has the opposite problem for stronger storms than Monday will have; that is, lack of low level instability even though temperatures aloft will be fairly cold. 

Thus, neither Monday or Thursday has it 'all together' for a more definite "this screams strong to severe storms' calling. Consider this a whisper and gentle nudge instead. " never can say never but don't tell".

BEYOND: Friday and so forth will be much cooler to  cold  Friday and breezy with a fairly rapid swing of the winds around the N-NNE to NE by mid-day Saturday. Lows appear to be running in the 40Fs range with highs in the general in the lower to mid 60Fs, but it'll be over in a snap. By Sunday it'll be back to status quo of this season.  No 'bitter icy frigid' cold (those below 45F but dare we say anything below 55F fits that description? )  foreseen in the Global (Crystal Ball) Forecast System (GFS) time range beyond day 8.

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Friday, January 9, 2015

Much Warmer w/ East Side Rain Chance Increase Sunday/Monday

"Weekend Approaches"
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY: Inverted coastal trough close to shore clearly evident this morning by on surface observations. The gusty winds of yesterday became a faded memory quickly within a few hours after midnight and drainage flow down the spine of the state from north to south is attempting to reach even some coastal communities.  Temperatures vary last hour as much as a 71F at Pompano Beach to a 25F at Marianna. Most inland Central Florida spots are running the mid 40Fs gamut while closer to the coast a full 10F degrees warmer. South Florida east side as would most often be expected running the warmest in the mid-upper 60Fs.

When the winds subsided this area (of writing) after midnight the outside air temperature dropped a good 6 degrees within one hour as a result. 

Outside of the much lighter wind today, high and some lower cloud coverage could occur off and on almost anywhere. This will affect the afternoon high temperatures as will the continued penetration of the of high pressure far to the north of Florida in this very progressive weather pattern of recent days. 

The original high pressure will be well northeast of Maine today the one that was descending southward from the Northwest Plains in the previous post) as another one drops in only to exacerbate the current cold situation (especially for the northeast states). 

Over Florida, the coastal trough will work inland over the South Half of the state somewhat creating a bit of   "pseuduo-stationary- cold front' "  (see above) type situation with the 'warmer parts' running generally from Cocoa Beach west to a Southern Tampa Bay line and south. 

Highs today will vary from the lower through mid 60Fs and into the upper 60Fs to lower 70Fs south of that boundary (wherever it ends up ), but again, cloud cover will ultimately be yet another deciding contributor to just exactly how warm it will get in any one location (or how cool it will remain). Ultimately, it will be SW Florida that 's in the digs today for warmest temperatures.

On Saturday, the high pressure shown below will shunt the boundary further south, thus, it will be cooler on Saturday than today across Central Florida and even by a few degrees over South Florida. North Florida just remains like always, a part of Southern Georgia and Alabama as opposed to being influenced by peninsular surrounding waters. Temperatures thus today and Saturday will run a few degrees below normal for afternoon highs, but closer to normal for lows.

Meanwhile, a weak area of surface low pressure will form near the south tip of Texas overnight Saturday night as the final high pressure area will have moved offshore the Mid Atlantic states allow SSE winds to develop the boundary shown above into a 'warm front slash (/) coastal trough' (shown below) tracing along the Gulf Coast southern state borders (see below); thus, warming overnight Saturday night into Sunday morning for a potential pleasant sunrise surprise along the immediate Florida east coast Sunday morning with sunrise temperatures  within a few degrees of 70F.

SUNDAY: Much warmer with inland highs ranging from mid-upper 70Fs to near 80F (South) with coolest temperatures at the beaches, especially as anticipating the ocean temperatures will have been lowering over the past several days, with the coast closer to mid-70F (if not lower 70Fs) north of Sebastian Inlet.

Chance of showers near the coast by or before sunrise as well, with patchy cloud cover elsewhere. This 'rain chance' continues all day Sunday for the east coast beaches, but exactly where has been shifting around between and within various model runs, but the area of far North Brevard and north seems to be a consistent area as does SE Florida with Brevard/Indian River Counties being in and out of the chances. Inland areas look to remain rain free though over the weekend other than a passing spritz on the windshield.

MONDAY: This is the bigger day in question in regard to thunder. So far, the latest trend of the GFS runs favor a line running from Vero Beach to Sarasota and south for thunder but much will be contingent at that point in time in where the most available moisture resides. Sufficient instability and cold air aloft will be over all but the the Panhandle and anywhere south of I4 (at least) for thunder. The GFS is now favoring that aforementioned area though per the overnight model runs though earlier runs also including almost anywhere south of I4. In short, wouldn't be surprised to see 'thunderstorms' introduced at some point in time for some locations at a later time in the official forecast. Otherwise...

BEYOND: Another very weak frontal boundary tracks out to sea elongating back westward with the coldest of air on the northern side remaining mainly north of I4 if not I-10 for several days toward the following Thursday or Friday, Beyond that time, there is a big variability in the temperature forecast going into mid-latter January. 

The normal trend is that the period from about now through the first week of February is normally the coldest (on average) time of year for much of Florida (for an extended string of days) with the last week being a real bugaboo some years. Severe weather chances (on the long-time scale (climatic)/synoptic scale level) also begin to increase around that same time up through the month of March.

Otherwise, there remains a slight chance in the shorter term that  there will continue to be a chance of light showers from time to time along the east coast to partially inland , with per chance more clouds than not - - which has been the running theme for this winter season in lieu of cold dry Arctic Air Masses.

 Looks like a fairly long string of days with prevailing light ENE winds at the surface though keeping overnights quite mild and afternoons pleasant but not overly 'warm' either into Thursday once we get beyond Saturday.

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Wednesday, January 7, 2015

Cool Today, Much Colder / Windy Much of Thursday , Storms Monday?

Sunrise Tuesday, December 6, Cape Canaveral
TODAY: Frontal boundary has cleared the area obviously will a much cooler start to the day; a secondary one to follow near to just after sunset. 

High pressure building south from the NW Plains states will drop into Old Dixie tonight into tomorrow before traversing slowly east ward across The Deep South states (north of Florida) on Friday and weakening.  

Today mostly sunny with some thinner high clouds with highs north half of state much cooler than that past few days, mainly in the lower-mod 60Fs  - warmer south of a Cocoa Beach - Tampa Bay line with upper 60Fs to 70Fs (far South).


TONIGHT: Secondary 'surge' from another trough slicking by and across Central Florida in the 6-8pm time frame will be followed by increasing NW - NNW winds especially toward midnight to sunrise and remaining elevated up through early afternoon before slowly decreasing throughout the remainder of late day and early evening. 

 Lows in the lower 40Fs to upper 30Fs mainly west and north of the Orlando area, with widespread mid-upper 40Fs.   The bigger story MIGHT be the wind for a 12 hour time frame as winds just above 'the deck' around 2000 ft. are forecast to be 30 knots and those winds are accompanied by much colder air in the 2-4000 foot layer above ground, which could mean for strong gusts within an hour or two after sunrise on going through early afternoon. 

Suspect a Lake Wind  advisory will be hoisted for time on Thursday as a result with highs only in the lower 50Fs to upper 40Fs north of a Cocoa Beach to Tampa line once again as they shift to N-NNE  by sunrise.  Wind,  especially at the east coast and intracoastals,  in the 18 G 30 mph for a time and 'chilly ' by late morning with temperatures in the lower 50Fs. 

Wind becomes more NNE-NE later in the day and decrease. It might actually 'feel warmer' in many areas toward sunset or even after dark than it will in the middle of the afternoon, especially at the beaches as air mass modification begins. 

There could also be a deck of pancake stratocumulus clouds especially at the beaches but suspect any light rain will remain offshore due to the dry air over the land leading to evaporation of the sparsely thin moist layer above ground.  

FRIDAY-SATURDAY: Only slow warm up with highs back into the lower to mid 60Fs and eventually some upper 60Fs by Saturday (warmer South Florida though) but much lighter wind with coastal to inland pancake stratocumulus clouds mainly. Overall though, these days will be warmer than today and Thursday and generally 'pleasant'. A coastal trough will be setting up off shore but suspect if there is to be any rain showers, there they will remain. 

SUNDAY - MONDAY: Bigger warm up with temperatures to or above 'normal' once again, Guidance is up and down on rain showers this day but seems to be in favor for the more so than not and would lean that way. Low pressure , though weak, forms near the Southeast tip of Texas traversing as an open wave along the north Gulf . 

STORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY: Better chance of rain though enters into the picture on Monday , and if the GFS trend continues, might need to introduce some thunder south of I-4 (at least) with possibly stronger storms as well. 

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