"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Monday, January 19, 2015

Chamber of Commerce Weather Through Wednesday - Rain / 'Possible' Storms Friday

"Sunday Morning"
TODAY: New week and new pattern slowly appears to be emerging. A 'string of days' of much more pleasant weather with moderating temperatures and for a change light wind to near calm and mostly sunny skies except late tonight to parts of Tuesday. High pressure across North Florida to cross the state and exit off shore but close enough to allow a near zero pressure gradient meaning light winds. With no influx of cold air on the horizon over night temperatures could fall due to drainage flow, but high clouds might be on the way tonight and early Tuesday which would prevent them from falling as far as they could otherwise. Highs in the lower 70Fs but coastal locales north of Cocoa Beach will be a bit cooler especially on the North side of the Cape due to very cool near shore shelf waters of the Atlantic. Even a few blocks in from the ocean will make a big difference between comfortable too 'who turned up the A/C ?!!' on the beach.

High Clouds Tonight implied by The GFS and seen on Satellite Animation approaching

TUESDAY: After a possible cloudy start from high clouds, they are shown to 'pull out' in the early to mid afternoon; highs in the lower-mid-70Fs otherwise

WEDNESDAY: Light onshore flow will keep the coast again cooler but afternoon highs warming. Latest implication however is that a Southwest flow might develop such that mid-upper 70Fs and even some lower 80Fs south of I-4 are possible (mainly inland) No rain foreseen in this pattern as a weak circulation attempts to form a surface low near the Loop Current in the East Central Gulf of Mexico.

THURSDAY: Increasing high clouds especially later in the day as low moves toward the I-4 though it is very weak at that time. Showers and rain already possible over the panhandle with highs in the 70Fs. Lows mainly in the 50Fs to lower 60Fs if not some mid 60Fs mainly south and near the beaches south of the Cape.

FRIDAY: GFS for three runs now has shown deep layer shear in the wind profiles even down to nearly 2000 ft (though weak at lowest levels) from a line running from Cape Canaveral and north, more so near I-4. GFS shows very low instability though, and the jet stream will probably be running a bit too far north with little divergence which implies storm chances despite the shear would be low, but things could change . It's just to far out in time for now; but given the degree of shear shown though it is not totally out of the question some storms, maybe even strong could occur, but wouldn't hang a hat on that one just yet. Otherwise, Friday appears to be the best chance for rain from early afternoon through dark spreading east and south with time.

NEXT WEEKEND: Return to cooler weather for a string of days. Just how cold ? Too far out in time for model accuracy in regard to how cold and for how long but there might be several days in a row with a westerly surface wind component, something rare so far this winter which would mean very cool overnights and very pleasant afternoons. It is the coastal locations north of Sebastian inlet that would notice this the most in regard to afternoon high temperatures in the absence of onshore flow advecting cold shelf water air onto the beaches whereas inland 'status quo' temperatures would be the general consensus.

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