"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Friday, July 23, 2010

Is Bonnie A Sheep in A Wolves' Clothing?

(Image: Water Vapor imagery showing convection associated with Bonnie and the upper level low in the Gulf)
Might as well bite the bullet and use the opportunity presented through having a blog to post some unconventional thinking this morning. Please note that anything written here is likely to totally NOT agree with most everything being posted through OFFICIAL CHANNELS. I guess if I'm going to be totally wrong, I might as well do THAT right.

As of 10am 'Bonnie' (as it has been dubbed) is moving in on Miami at a steady pace. Upon looking at the Miami radar it is hard to locate a completely closed circulation...there seems to be a break in the circulation around the southern periphery, but that's neither here nor there. Concerning the weather here locally.

NOW: As can be seen by the included image the main impact as far as precipitation goes from the system (as it stands now, only) has moved onshore. This is a water vapor image. What can also be seen is that East Central Florida lies on the cusp of where the deeper moisture comes to an abrupt halt. It already appears that drier air is impinging. Also note the beast in the Gulf. That is the upper low that crossed the state yesterday. That low combined with the nemesis high pressure over the Atlantic is tearing at Bonnie's integrity at every given opportunity. Numerous low topped rain showers populate the near shore waters well off shore of Southern Volusia County and points south and are evaporating as they approach the coast up this way in Canaveral but look like that will reach the coast of South Brevard shortly.

TODAY: Believe most forecasts are erring on the side of caution. Totally understandable. Other than that, not much to say that wasn't alluded to yesterday. North Brevard will remain on the cusp..but feel this cusp will shift further south with time during most of the day leaving only the more susceptible area from Indian River County and points south open to accumulative rainfall amounts. Things could change locally by late afternoon once the system has actually crossed the state...but I'm just now beginning to lean toward discarding even that notion as I write. I am thinking that the worst of 'whatever it will be' will be arriving from Sebastian to West Palm in the mid-late afternoon hours in the form of gusty pressure gradient winds with higher gust embedded within the bigger showers. Locally, rain showers could be impacting parts of Brevard by the time this is read by you though, but significant accumulations appear to be unlikely. These showers will be small and move along at a very brisk pace.

TONIGHT: Show's over. Maybe some sparse showers along the immediate coast at any time.

TOMORROW-MONDAY: Perhaps some trailing moisture will continue to be drawn toward the system and across the state..the higher a latitude the 'system' attains the further north will be the moisture feed. Coastal rain showers by night and early day transitioning inland as the days progress. Maybe even thunderstorms further inland...that's questionable.

LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY: Could easily transition back to dry until proven innocent. Nemesis high will be back for round two. The real mind blower is that Bonnie might never even make it beyond the central Gulf as anything more than a depression. Just something to ponder at this point though. I don't even totally believe that one yet. At least the folks in the Oil Spill Region would be happy.

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