"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Sunday, December 31, 2017

Cloudy , Dank and Wet - Then Colder Yet Still Through Saturday

TODAY: Nicest day of the week in regard to sky, wind, and rain free conditions combined. Enjoy it while it lasts!  Not much to say about today as temperatures remain cool, even a bit below normal, but otherwise uneventful as a new year arrives.

TONIGHT - MONDAY: Cloud cover will be increasing across the north even more where it is already cloudy as we speak (see next image below)  but will begin to drop further south along a frontal boundary. This boundary is the beginning or onset of what will eventually usher forth a much colder 'air mass' come later in the week, as it is defining the leading edge of said colder air.

In the mean time, increasing cloud cover with a chance of showers light rain commences across parts of North Central by early Monday morning and slowly begins to drop south over-coming most of Central to South Central Florida later in the day. The result of of extensive cloud cover combined with the low sun angle this time of year will be to prevent temperatures from rising possibly out of the mid-upper 50Fs, especially where any rain is falling. Better chances of seeing the 60Fs and even some lower 70Fs is South Central and South Florida. 

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: Wind increasing from the NNE - NE, gusting up toward 30 mph perhaps come late Tuesday night into Wednesday as broad and powerful high pressure works south from the northern states. The slight onshore component will keep overnight lows right near the east coast near normal but much colder air will already prevail across NW Florida.

 Low pressure will form off the Florida East Coast and that combined with what might be a bit of an inverted coastal trough running up the west side of The Gulf Stream just off shore to near the coast may well begin to manifest low level convergence resulting in much pesky cloudy cover and likely rainfall, mainly along to even only east of I-95, even US1.  Though we might see a break in the rains after Monday night into early Tuesday it does appear there will be a heavier return of the rains  to come sometime Tuesday and possibly all of Wednesday, mostly for the areas shown below. 

Temperatures for Central Florida mainly in the mid-upper 50Fs. Guidance is showing lower 60Fs, but suspect that if rain is falling, wherever that might be, temperatures could be substantially lower due to cold air aloft being dragged to the surface in and near rainfall. 

Coastal conditions will be most unplayful with gusting NNE - NE winds up toward 25-30mph, cloudy skies, and very cool temperatures accompanying any rainfall. Dank , wet, and windy as of now seems to sum of Tuesday and Wednesday.

THURSDAY: Large  and extensive area of low pressure that is form offshore will quickly lift off to the NNE offshore and up the U.S. east coast as the 'great plunge' of much colder air plows southeastward down the spine of the state over night Wednesday night into Thursday morning. 

Very rapid clearing in sky conditions from NW to SE down the state Wednesday aternoon into evening hours at least, but much colder by Thursday morning with lows across Central mainly the mid-upper 30Fs to near 40F (right at the beach south of the Cape). Freezing temperatures so far this morning anticipated possibly along to north of I-4 interior.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY: Wind will decrease somewhat but mornings continue quite 'cold' all things considered. Still any breeze will be felt, and no sign so far it will let up entirely.  This 'cold spell' appears will outdo anything we've seen the past two winters as it stands now in regard to 'duration'. 

 Possibly freezing temperatures interior with mid-upper 30Fs most areas (except far South Florida). Overall, this does not look like a 'big freeze' situation that would 'make the record books' as of now at least. We've seen worse. 

BEYOND: Looks like   continued breezy conditions , if so will be a blessing in disguise  . This would prevent much of a radiational cooling type situation, at least near the coast but again (which could lead to a damaging state wide freeze), it is too far out in time to know for certain if this will be the case.

The other 'good' side of the story is that as wind shifts to more of a NE-ENE component on Saturday afternoon a warm up will be most notable rather quickly. Not that it will immediately get 'warm' but things will all be relative by then. Low 60Fs will be 'warm by standard of the previous three days' especially by Sunday morning.

SUNDAY-BEYOND: The GFS and the CFSV2 (climate model) indicate the chance of a much longer 'warmer period thereafter', with temperatures running at to above normal well into mid January (?).

Noting, the coldest period of the year historically for any 'sustained periods of time' is  typically between early January to the last week of January. The question is, will  this be the worst overall 'temperature wise' that winter will deal out for us this season or not? Time will tell. 

The plus side so far is that warmer weather is already being foreseen despite this upcoming first week of 2018.   But again, going out beyond even 7 days is entering unchartered territory.

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Tuesday, December 19, 2017

Above to 'Near Record Highs" Through Christmas Eve

TODAY - WEDNESDAY: Very little change in the 'scheme of things'
as strong high pressure over the Bahamas - Florida - Western Gulf  at the surface in response to increased upper level heights perpetuates the current trend.

Though there is quite a bit of low clouds / fog in some areas this morning, and some higher clouds as well streaming over Central Florida early today, the fog will eventually break up and yield to mostly sunny to sunny skies. Temperatures today and tomorrow will be rather similar in the afternoon, especially close to the east coast where ocean temperatures are in the mid-60Fs (north) to the lower 70Fs (far south). Canaveral Jetty has been reading around68F for water temperatures recently. This means highs in the lower 80Fs inland and upper end of mid to upper 70Fs right at the beach accompanied by a light NE wind.

THURSDAY - SUNDAY:  Morning fog might continue to be an issue, at least for a few more days, typical of winter weather during the 'warmer' periods.

As a deep, upper level trough and related cold (in some case, extremely cold) air mass plunges across the Western and Central portions of the country with readings that will end up a good 10-20F degrees below 0F across the Dakotas, Wyoming, parts of Colorado, Minnesota, even possibly into Iowa, Florida will remain the 'hot' spot, especially later in the period as the front will struggle to reach the state. 

Wind will become more from a SW direction which could mean even the east coast will be seeing solid lower - mid 80Fs. It is on one (or more) of these days that we might see near record highs near the East Coast locations. Melbourne, Ft Pierce, Vero or Daytona might all stand a chance of reaching a new record.

 Regardless, no snow during this period over Florida on Christmas Eve.

CHRISTMAS DAY: Guidance diverges most notably for Christmas Day as to when the front eventually glides through Central to South Florida; so far they imply it would be late in the day rather than earlier, which could mean yet another warm day for certain regions south of I-4. Too soon to say however.

At this point, three Ensemble models: The GEFS, GEPS,and EPS vary as well but not too significantly in regard to exactly 'how low will it go' once the front does go through. 

So far they all agree that the 'least affected region' will be the east coast south of The Cape and around South Florida , mainly south of Lake Okeechobee. 

The 'most affected' would be the Panhandle region...north of I-4 and the Nature Coast region north of Tampa Bay.  For perspective, the east coast so far is forecast to see temperatures around 1-3F below 'normal', but much cooler for regions west and north.

All in all, little if any precipitation is foreseen as well. Cold fronts to be accompanied mainly by cloud cover is about it, and maybe some light to gentle sprinkles of rain at most is being implied.

The GFS operational model has been much more aggressive with the colder air, it appears now, but the ensembles   together do not show temperature falls nearly as drastic' as the operational run. 

Considering the   ensembles do not show all the much of a change, 'would anticipate at this point' a return to 'near to just a bit cooler' than normal temperatures for the east coast, mostly due to cooler afternoon highs. 

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Thursday, December 7, 2017

Watching Like a Hawk for 'Potential Severe' - Prolonged Cold Spell on Tap

TODAY: What a day of contrasts currently at hand !

 If one is along a line from North Brevard to Tampa southward, they'd never guess that not far away are completely overcast skies and temperatures as much as 25F degrees colder (as of 1pm). 

Temperatures last hour in the Panhandle Region are running  in the  upper 40Fs through the 50Fs  with mid 70Fs to lower 80Fs across South Central and South Florida.  A stationary front has come to a halt across Central Brevard stretching across the state to the north side of Tampa Bay and will remain in place more or less the rest of the day before slowly lifting back north overnight or into early Friday.

Frontal Boundary bisects the state this afternoon

TONIGHT: Not much change overnight as this boundary remains nearly stationary. A powerful upper level trough with Jet Stream winds plunging southward across the East Central U.S. and associated  'energy' with strong mid-upper level winds as well will approach the state late tomorrow and then cross the state mainly north of a line from Ft Pierce to Sarasota during the overnight resulting in increasing mid-level lift due to speed shear though there might also be just a bit of directional shear mainly north of that line.

Models vary significantly in the finer (and most important details) as to where the Risk of any strong to severe storms might occur, with the NAM model showing the potential well into Northern Parts of North Central Florida, but for now will not go there and stay further south . However....

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT- EARLY SATURDAY: The Storm Prediction Center in their latest outlook Is favoring a bit further north than what this post is showing for a 'risk area'. 

Either way, the Time of 'Greatest Potential Risk' for strong surface winds to Severe Strength if not even mini-swirl type tornadic activity appears most likely  along to south of I-4 after Dark on a developing Quasi-Linear Convective System Type Squall Line (if the 3KM NAM is to be believe). 

This is  still a  " 'yet to be seen'  -  'still in development' " type situation as far as forecasting is concerned. Timing and location could vary greatly yet still. 

Otherwise, the chance of seeing rain, some heavy with totals been 1/2" - 1.5"  (some places much less) across the entire state at varying times is high, beginning late Friday running through mid  morning - early afternoon Saturday (South Florida), though again, that could change. 

Rains will end rapidly from north to south, and might be over with across North Central between 9AM -1PM Saturday , though could be as much as 3 hours sooner (or later). Least to clear as would be expected, South Florida mid day Saturday.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Behind the front cold air advection commences with gusty NW winds over 25 mph at times. The Full Thrust of  'cold air' will not be yet realized, however, until yet another front is to approach sometime around late Tuesday. Regardless, highs on Saturday afternoon might not see 60F along and north of I4 with Sunday morning lows in the upper 30Fs interior to lower -mid 40Fs in many locations .  

SUNDAY: With the above said, either Sunday/Monday morning for some folks along the east coast might see the coldest morning experienced since the coldest morning all of last winter, coupled with wind chill readings. Wind however by Monday morning will have tapered off significantly.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: "Warming trend' if you can call it that. 

Though it will be 'warmer'  after another cold Monday morning through Tuesday the temperatures will still be below 'normal',  but after the previous two days might not feel so bad comparably speaking.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: Yet another front if not two will progress down the state with the greater surge of colder air now being anticipated. The Canadian Model actually indicates a near State Wide Freeze Thursday/Friday mornings but the GFS doesn't even come close to such as that and not sold on the idea either.

Regardless, the potential remains that for  some folks along the East Coast South of I-4 to see colder weather later next week than was experienced nearly all of last winter with gusting winds to boot.

BEYOND: As would be expected we're now referring to a time frame of greater uncertainty from what is already quite a bit of previous uncertainty. 

General trend has been a warm up in the great beyond, that is, until the last GFS model came out.   Thus, as is always the case this far out in time, there is no way in knowing what is to come toward the Days Just before and on Christmas quite yet.

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Tuesday, December 5, 2017

"Winter's Chill Is Comin' To Town' - Saturday and Beyond

December 5  2017   Cocoa Beach , Florida  Morning
Will leave this post short for today  but to sound the 'alarm' for an upcoming cold spell  accompanied by gusty wind chill readings - preceded by a period of rain during the weekend.

TODAY-WEDNESDAY: Not much change from the latest few days. A few clouds off and on, even a light ,  isolated shower perhaps. Temperatures running above average with lows near the beaches in the upper 60Fs to near 70F and afternoon highs upper 70Fs to lower 80Fs (interior).

THURSDAY: Frontal boundary to work south from North Florida into Central Florida to near I-4. Guidance is a bit shaky on exactly how far south it will get but appears it will reach South Central Florida by Thursday morning with a frontal passage across Central Direct close to day break. The boundary is extremely shallow; nonetheless, there will be wind shift and cooler air behind the boundary likely accompanied by increased cloud cover. 

 Slight chance of showers but the bigger story north of the boundary will be about a 8-10F temperature decrease for afternoon highs (Central/North). Sharp temperature gradient between the region north to south of boundary where highs will remain near 80F.

FRIDAY: Boundary continues to be located in the same general area as a mid-level 'impulse' rides along in the westerlies just above the deck to ride over the it  during the day and into the evening. So far, guidance advertises best rain chances North of I-4 during the day light hours. 

The Canadian Model advertised this to occur yesterday and the GFS has joined in to the prognosis. Both now showing that the better chance of larger rainfall totals perhaps even accompanied by elevated thunder appears will occur (as of now at least) across Central and South Central Florida after sunset Friday evening through the night into very early Saturday.

If the scenario paints out as shown , it will be rare bird to be getting thunder, for the temperatures during all of this 'rain' (assuming this occurs) will only be in the lower-mid 50Fs. GFS shows rainfall totals up to 1.50" (if not more) in the midst of all that. The impetus is very high bulk and speed shear through the mid-upper levels, over 60Kts at places accompanied by very cold air aloft.

Be thankful it won't be warm and unstable at the surface at the same time! Because if it were, this would be a 'big time' severe weather out-break set up; but alas, t'will be very very cool at the surface. If this were the Plains, maybe we'd be talking a hail chance, but not sure such a thing has ever happened like that in Florida before (cold weather, heavy rain, and 'hail'..that is).

SATURDAY- BEYOND: The front clears on Saturday followed by Gusty NW - NNW winds with highs perhaps only in the mid-upper 50Fs. Thus, the afternoon HIGHS will be nearly 10-15F degrees colder than our morning LOWS have been.  

SUNDAY MORNING looks also to be quite cool though it might warm into the lower-mid 60Fs in the afternoon, as wind decreases. Regardless, the worst is yet to come.

Beyond this time prepare for forecasts (such as on TV) to bounce around quite a bit, and to be hearing about the 'Polar Vortex' as it currently appears that area of low pressure is planning on setting camp up over the Northeastern Great Lakes region for quite some time. Chances are TV watchers are already hearing about it.

The end-result for Florida will be a 'difficult - to - time' succession of 'dry' frontal boundaries..boom boom boom. One after the other. 

I can count at least two more to follow during the week toward the following weekend. And be advised, 'IF" the current outlook stands, it gets colder before it gets warmer. 

Much cooler. Freezing so far is not foreseen for Central and South. but Far North Central Interior might see freezing temps come mid-late week after the second or third front pulls through, accompanied again by more gusty winds.

Temperatures along the immediate coast mid-late week 'might' be able to get into the mid 40Fs with gusty winds to-boot. But we'll see. There's time for guidance to shift around yet still, even significantly so.

In short, after early this coming Thursday things start to go down hill..then there is a good rain chance as it stands now at least sometime between mid-day Friday (North) through early Saturday morning.(Central/South Central)..and from there on will be time to  'Shift  intto Winter-Gear '.

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