"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Tuesday, December 19, 2017

Above to 'Near Record Highs" Through Christmas Eve

TODAY - WEDNESDAY: Very little change in the 'scheme of things'
as strong high pressure over the Bahamas - Florida - Western Gulf  at the surface in response to increased upper level heights perpetuates the current trend.

Though there is quite a bit of low clouds / fog in some areas this morning, and some higher clouds as well streaming over Central Florida early today, the fog will eventually break up and yield to mostly sunny to sunny skies. Temperatures today and tomorrow will be rather similar in the afternoon, especially close to the east coast where ocean temperatures are in the mid-60Fs (north) to the lower 70Fs (far south). Canaveral Jetty has been reading around68F for water temperatures recently. This means highs in the lower 80Fs inland and upper end of mid to upper 70Fs right at the beach accompanied by a light NE wind.

THURSDAY - SUNDAY:  Morning fog might continue to be an issue, at least for a few more days, typical of winter weather during the 'warmer' periods.

As a deep, upper level trough and related cold (in some case, extremely cold) air mass plunges across the Western and Central portions of the country with readings that will end up a good 10-20F degrees below 0F across the Dakotas, Wyoming, parts of Colorado, Minnesota, even possibly into Iowa, Florida will remain the 'hot' spot, especially later in the period as the front will struggle to reach the state. 

Wind will become more from a SW direction which could mean even the east coast will be seeing solid lower - mid 80Fs. It is on one (or more) of these days that we might see near record highs near the East Coast locations. Melbourne, Ft Pierce, Vero or Daytona might all stand a chance of reaching a new record.

 Regardless, no snow during this period over Florida on Christmas Eve.

CHRISTMAS DAY: Guidance diverges most notably for Christmas Day as to when the front eventually glides through Central to South Florida; so far they imply it would be late in the day rather than earlier, which could mean yet another warm day for certain regions south of I-4. Too soon to say however.

At this point, three Ensemble models: The GEFS, GEPS,and EPS vary as well but not too significantly in regard to exactly 'how low will it go' once the front does go through. 

So far they all agree that the 'least affected region' will be the east coast south of The Cape and around South Florida , mainly south of Lake Okeechobee. 

The 'most affected' would be the Panhandle region...north of I-4 and the Nature Coast region north of Tampa Bay.  For perspective, the east coast so far is forecast to see temperatures around 1-3F below 'normal', but much cooler for regions west and north.

All in all, little if any precipitation is foreseen as well. Cold fronts to be accompanied mainly by cloud cover is about it, and maybe some light to gentle sprinkles of rain at most is being implied.

The GFS operational model has been much more aggressive with the colder air, it appears now, but the ensembles   together do not show temperature falls nearly as drastic' as the operational run. 

Considering the   ensembles do not show all the much of a change, 'would anticipate at this point' a return to 'near to just a bit cooler' than normal temperatures for the east coast, mostly due to cooler afternoon highs. 

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