"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Monday, February 10, 2014

CoC Days Could be Followed By Strong/Severe Weather Late Wednesday

"Chamber of Commerce's True Blue and  '72F' Expected Today" 

TODAY: Light winds all day and nearly cloud free sky should allow the heating agent to act in force mainly away from the direct beachsides for highs in the mid 70Fs to 'near' 80F, warmest interior South Florida. Chamber of Commerce weather welcomes all to attend. Step outside and enjoy free trade. The beaches will be more toward the lower-mid 70F s as a result of the proximity to the cooling influence of the very cool ocean waters though not particularly 'cold' as has been experienced in other years.

TOMORROW: Almost ditto but a bit warmer with some increasing clouds particularly from I-4 and north as a warm front begins to develop along and north of I-10 toward Louisiana. Increasing moisture at lower levels cloud permit more scattered cumuliform low topped type clouds further south. Low temperatures similar to this morning, but perhaps a bit warmer as well.

WEDNESDAY: Day or reckoning as to what will manifest later in the day and into the overnight hours begins. Much still contingent on a few factors, and according to some discussions the GFS and ECMWF (A European model the blogger does not have thorough access to ) are still a bit at odds; but nonetheless, the GFS (Global Forecast System) model is becoming increasingly consistent despite a falling away in the morning run yesterday, with showing the same idea as previously discussed here on Friday. That being, good vertical life in the mid-upper levels and favorable lapse rates in the same regions as well with very cold air aloft in the upper levels into the midlevels after a day of heating supportive for strong to marginally severe storms. Pre-emptive cloud cover though, particularly from I-4 and north could be an issue for low level instability to be quite weak in that area where the best winds fields that support strong storms will be, but further south appears will also be in on the winds to a lesser degree.

LATE WEDNESDAY: Very cold air aloft and increasing upper level winds with the latest GFS showing a jet streak over 90kts aloft to pass overhead at night as low pressure slides across north Florida with slightly backed winds at the lower levels south of I-4, mainly early on from late afternoon through the 10pm time frame. We might also see a pre-frontal trough preceding a main cold front which could mean two potential shots of 'strong or severe storms' of two different characters - the main crux being a result of strong wind gusts and non-severe sized hail as it looks now, but that could easily change. It's still too soon to say with any degree of reasonable certainty but as outlined already. It is the 'potential' that  is being referred to as opposed to what may or might not actually occur. Chances are, we will be hearing more about this on the press-lines in the next 48 hours. The Storm Prediction Center is now discussing this situation as well as of yesterday and writing about it and has upped their ante on the speculations....casting lots on the models as opposed to a personal reputation.

BEYOND: Some much cooler mornings and afternoons ahead into the weekend follows Thursday into the weekend, but nothing colder than what has already been experienced this year, and not as cold at that as well. After some cooler days the GFS has been having a hard time finding anything but a prolonged period of very comfortable weather in days ahead out for several days to a week. Beyond that, model reliability fizzles into oblivion, but naught for watching tendencies and trends at least.


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