"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Friday, August 19, 2011

Showers and Mid to Late Afternoon Thunderstorms Most of the Peninsula Today

One of the many signs along coastal, hurricane prone areas of the U.S. Meanwhile, a thunder storm is in the background over far West Cocoa near the Lone Cabbage Fish Camp on SR520

TODAY THRU SUNDAY: Today looks a lot like yesterday, with noon to 3pm showers and some thunder storms forming on the sea breezes and around the lakes..most of these should be 'weak'..the strongest could generate a few lightning strikes. As the day progresses and sea breezes start to approach each other (the east coast one more progressive especially after 3pm...)..stronger storms will from along and west of I-95..with a few in Martin and St. Lucy and perhaps Indian River County affecting the immediate coast.  One thunder storm might go up over the Merritt Island WLR...but of short duration..and it would have to be as the sea breeze starts to gain momentum.  Otherwise, by late afternoon the concentration of storms generated by Lake and sea breezes will generate other boundaries for the strongest of storms after 5-6pm through 7:30pm. I'm not seeing any early day outflow boundaries at this time...and there is less shower activity today over the stronger storms might hold off a little later...or coverage near the coast along or near US1 might be less..but that should have little bearing on the eventual outcome later today...

The other difference today is that there is no marine outflow boundaries approaching SE Florida as showers are now forming along the sea breeze there.

GREEN: Light Rain Possible  ORANGE: Thunder at a location or could be heard from a distance  PURPLE: Most concentration of activity, perhaps more toward the west, especially the portion over Orange and Osceola Counties.

SAT: Same deal, except a storm could impact the immediate coast very late toward evening in Brevard or Volusia (southern) County.

SUNDAY: More like today will not a whole lot to say in this typical summertime regime with nothing standing out as of late morning today.

MONDAY: Storms will form near the east side and work west into the mid-late afternoon. The air mass will be drying out some as do not believe there will be as much coverage...but that..we will have to wait and see.

TROPICS: The GFS continues to generate a strong tropical storm or Hurricane that first impacts the Dominican Republic ..Haiti and Cuba. Depending on how north the system is located will eventually determine how or if it will impact the United States (namely Florida OR the Carolinas). The GFS, as mentioned yesterday implied it could hit the Houston area, but the following run reverted back toward the Keys and up toward Tallahassee. Meanwhile, last night's Euro model showed a track like this (bear in mind, this is just a forecast track..and does not include any stalling the system might do over or near land). Also bear in mind, that the system would be tracking across a lot of land mass. What the GFS has been implying is that if steers west of the state (toward Pensacola for example, it regenerates rapidly from the warm waters of the Florida Straits and the Gulf before making a final landfall on the Gulf Coast:

This is just one part of a FORECAST TRACK...on Saturday or Sunday...just an example
This system might not even develop at all..but it's looking pretty unlikely that will be the case.
It is possible the storm could altogether miss the U.S. if it tracks too far south as the latest GFS now coming out as I type would imply..the ridge over Texas is expected to hold it's grip...
The latest GFS is just coming out now...and it shows a track along the Southern Coast of Cuba (it has varied between the North and South Coasts for about 8 runs of the model..that is VERY CONSISTENT  ..then a curve toward the NW-NNW while SSW of looks like its track will closely mirror the one shown above by the time all is said and done...I wait to let it complete before posting today's writing:

As you can seen, the GFS disagrees with that other model..but is staying pretty close to the run made earlier today.

SAMPLE: This could easily NOT occur at all...this is for next Saturday

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