"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Monday, November 2, 2009

Extreme Local Forecast Day At Hand

Images above include the local RUC surface pressure forecast and various local LDIS plots indicating the frontal boundary by various gradients and parameters as shown in varying colored definitions.

Kind of a tricky forecast, at least for today. Even still, despite that fact there will be little in 'siggy' (click on the 'title" of today's entry for definition) weather for today.

The frontal boundary lies somewhere across the Central part of the peninsula this morning somewhere on the east coast between Daytona Beach and Fort Pierce. It all depends on which level in the atmosphere one opts to use as defining the front and which parameter (ie, wind, moisture, cloud cover, etc) to use. Suffice it to say we are pretty much in the center of this broad zone from Cape Canaveral on the east coast to Tampa on the West Coast. Very week, temporal cyclogensis (sort of) at the surface is forecasted by the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) as shown above to occur on the east coast before noon. This won't be a true low per se...but it maybe be enough to provide return flow beneath some pooled moisture in the area...enough to induce some good low cloud coverage and perhaps a barely detectable spit of rain. The RUC is not indicating there to be any precipitation, so that's probably the route to take. I'm going to go to the deep end though and give it a low end 5 percent chance that if you happen to be in the car you might detect it on the watch it pour (unlikely). However, in observing the latest sounding from KSC (the Kennedy Space Center), precipitable water values have increased a smidge. Enough for rain? Unlikely...but this may change even more with time.

For the most part today should be almost identical to yesterday other than the fact that I don't think the Melbourne area will be tying another record high temperature as they did yesterday, with increased cloud coverage and northerly surface winds. In fact, in looking out the window (that always helps!)..I do in fact see some low level clouds out there. Nifty.

The front's location is indeed in about the area I suppositioned in yesterday's discussion it would end up...and if all holds will remain in the vicinity for another day or so. As a matter of fact, lasts nights NAM run indicates a true chance of rain going into the post sunset hours tonight and into early tomorrow. So this definitely bears watching. The NAM has hit the surface front's location on the head, as far as using the wind fields as the defining parameter, showing the most moisture pooled behind this boundary with return moist low level flow along the east coast. Expect that any activity that can form will wane to just clouds the further west one goes into the central peninsula.
So in a meteorological nutshell, the best chance of this aforementioned precipitation should be just to the north and along the boundary from Fort Pierce to Oakhill and east of I-95.

The temperature yesterday wasn't even an issue here in Canaveral, so Melbourne's high temperature came as a surprise to me. Perhaps it shouldn't have though, as the flow off the ocean was not very strong (nearly calm at times in fact) that area probably was not impacted by the cooling benefits of wind off the ocean waters.

Please don't tell me this is going to be a day by day issue here. I suppose depending on how accurate one wants to be (namely myself for one)...I could be updating this blog every hour, but that ain't gonna happen.
And in the the longer term, nothing siggy...but at least it's not going to get cold anytime soon. The folks further north can have it, even though it looks like it will moderate some up that way during the first half of the week. Maybe before Thanksgiving we'll have to break out the gloves and earmuffs...but even out to 10 days from now there is absolutely now indication of that possibility whatsoever.

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