"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Friday, February 22, 2013

Will The "Real Winter" Please Stand Up?!

LATEST GFS surface 'depicture' for Sunday Afternoon,
showing a front's location and best rain chances

TODAY and SATURDAY: Warm with above average temperatures on tap. Wind today becoming more southerly with temperatures into the low-mid 80Fs for much of the peninsula with coolest readings near Central Brevard and North up the east coast along and east of I-95 due to a slight wind component off the ocean, where ocean temperatures are coolest as well due to the further proximity of the Gulf Stream to the coast as opposed to from Ft Pierce and south. Saturday's wind will be more Southwesterly so that should not be an issue. There appears to be a chance of showers from near Ft. Pierce and south on the GFS model for several runs in a row now on Saturday, whereas word has it the better chance is further north on the ECMWF model which I'll discount for now.

SUNDAY: The first front enters Central Florida on Sunday afternoon with a good chance of rain and possible thunder along and north of I-4 potentially nosing into Central Brevard after 2PM in the afternoon. Possibly thunder on this day as well, whereas South Central and South Florida remain apparently dry at this point. Warmest south of I-4 with again highs in the upper 70Fs to lower 80Fs and warmer South Florida.

MONDAY: Although it could rain into the over-night hours Sunday night (especially along and north of I-4), the boundary will 'buckley buckle back north" rapidly to Central or North Georgia 'as a warm front' in response to another low pressure system.

The red warm front shown will have been over Central Florida  late day Sunday into the overnight, but will lift back north rapidly as shown in this GFS model depiction. A complex mid to upper level pattern at this point is taking shape over the Great Lakes region to eventually continue to affect them as well as the NE States in days to come
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING: Warm and potentially dry with SW winds ahead of that next front shown above approaching from the west.  Although not shown here, a large and stubborn upper level low pressure system is to develop near the NE Great Lakes and stay firmly planted. The cold front 'should' cross through over-night Monday night and be through Central Florida by sunrise, Tuesday with another rain chance.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: Cooler but not cold, yet. Guidance flips around in the Wednesday time frame indicating a secondary surge of moisture rapidly moving in from the Central Gulf of Mexico as an 'over running' feature with a shallow north wind at the ground in place over Florida resulting a re-introduction to rain chances late Tuesday into Wednesday. On the other hand, the most recent GFS says that is a no go. So we'll need some continuity on that potential. Otherwise, it makes little difference beyond Wednesday as a series of 'dry fronts' rotate around like spokes on a large- low pressure-wheel located up in the NE Quadrant of the U.S.  The net result is a series of dry fronts surfing through as the drop south around the axis of rotating, whilst the first much cooler to cold one on Friday is to arrive, with several more shown to 'ditto that' for another week beyond.

ANY QUESTIONS? The gist is for another 7-10 days of winter.
At least so far as the Story is Being Told
 NEXT FRIDAY THROUGH NEXTEST NEXT FRIDAY: Temperatures below to well below normal. This is in contrast to earlier model runs that kept popping up the chance of severe weather in lieu of a cold air (or multiple one) intrusions. The question is, will that really be the case for as along as depicted, that being through the first week of March? Heads up at this point.


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