AT 122 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR DELTONA...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH. (the warning has since been cancelled).
TODAY: Frontal boundary has eked by Central Florida and will linger in the area for several days. Much of today will be quite similar to a summer like regime, with an east coast sea breeze manifesting early afternoon showers and storms along it and sending out flows from said activity every which way, only to merge with the west coast sea breeze over the interior during late day and early evening.
LATE TODAY: Expect that showers and some storms, <as noted there is already a severe warning>, will increase after 4pm. There is not a whole lot of cloud cover state wide as of 2pm (see below), and the day is still young. Temperatures aloft, especially down the east side of the state to be the coldest aloft, so would watch near and west of I -95 later today as inland mergers send outflows back and against the east coast sea breeze. Although low level instability is not super impressive at all, most of it seems to be coming off the Atlantic. Additionally, as opposed to yesterday, there is almost no down draft CAPE north of Dade County and across the state. Further south, there might be too much of that factor to allow even a rain shower because that factor acts to suppress activity unless updrafts are stronger than downdrafts...as was the case yesterday. Winds aloft are very weak, so storms will pulse up and down down quickly, spreading collapsing showers and cold air with them out in every direction.
Late afternoon is when outflows collide after heating has built up all day...so would expect this could occur along and west of the east coast sea breeze wherever it happens to be located later today. Some activity could be stronger close to the decaying surface boundary/front across Central and might work eastward along it and offshore Brevard toward Martin County / Ft. Pierce after 7pm and into early evening.
THROUGH THURSDAY: Much of the same completely unforecast-able and unusually early (!)summer like regime in regard to 'most likely' locations in advance beyond the day to day basis routine. Day by day analysis required, although Wednesday seems to be most favorable for much of the east coast to get a shot at rain and/or thunderstorms.
Meanwhile, an upper level trough well to the west near the Desert SW region (see below) will be opening up and traversing across the Deep South. This system will eject upper level energy out in phases too difficult to peg down in timing. It will be a matter of a disturbance traversing over the state coincident with late afternoon peak heating combined with sea breeze/lake breeze/outflow boundary collisions that will be the strong/severe storm determinants today through Thursday. The boundary will sink further South by Friday morning through at least Saturday.
As noted above captioned image, the frontal boundary near Central will eventually get shoved southward toward the keys area. But, as that upper trough approaches, moist and unstable air will get drawn back northward in advance of that trough. Thus, the frontal boundary to come back north by near the end of the weekend. resulting in another round of summer like weather with highs in the lower 90Fs, although cooler on Friday and Saturday along the east coast under the influence of a predominant easterly sea breeze those day.