"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Monday, May 7, 2012

Reflections of A Summer Like Pattern Through Thursday

Early afternoon severe thunderstorm warning along east coast sea breeze with little steering but cold air aloft, greater moisture in the atmosphere, better mixing ratios along the east coast, as well as better (stronger) atmospheric low level instability in the absence of down draft Convective Available potential energy and almost no inhibition allows early activity.


TODAY: Frontal boundary has eked by Central Florida and will linger in the area for several days. Much of today will be quite similar to a summer like regime, with an east coast sea breeze manifesting early afternoon showers and storms along it  and sending out flows from said activity every which way, only to merge with the west coast sea breeze over the interior during late day and early evening.

Although storms could form along either sea breeze, the better chance will be along the east coast sea breeze as it progresses inland. Expect we could see yet stronger storms toward Lake County, then sending outflows back eastward late in the day. Other storms though interior Central are entirely possible.. It will all depend on how far inland each breeze progresses as to where the storngest storms are located/
Best regions look just about anywhere away from the coasts near and north of Lake Okeechobee, but showers and some thunder could occur even further south just in from the coasts. Skies becoming mostly cloudy east 1/2 of state by later today due to convective rainshower and storm debris drifting east and off the coast.

LATE TODAY: Expect that showers and some storms, <as noted there is already a severe warning>, will increase after 4pm. There is not a whole lot of cloud cover state wide as of 2pm (see below), and the day is still young. Temperatures aloft, especially down the east side of the state to be the coldest aloft, so would watch near and west of I -95 later today as inland mergers send outflows back and against the east coast sea breeze. Although low level instability is not super impressive at all, most of it seems to be coming off the Atlantic. Additionally, as opposed to yesterday, there is almost no down draft CAPE north of Dade County and across the state. Further south, there might be too much of that factor to allow even a rain shower because that factor acts to suppress activity unless updrafts are stronger than was the case yesterday. Winds aloft are very weak, so storms will pulse up and down down quickly, spreading collapsing showers and cold air with them out in every direction. 

Late afternoon is when outflows collide after heating has built up all would expect this could occur along and west of the east coast sea breeze wherever it happens to be located later today. Some activity could be stronger close to the decaying surface boundary/front across Central and might work eastward along it and offshore Brevard toward Martin County / Ft. Pierce after 7pm and into early evening.

THROUGH THURSDAY: Much of the same completely unforecast-able  and unusually early (!)summer like regime in regard to 'most likely' locations in advance beyond the day to day basis routine. Day by day analysis required, although Wednesday seems to be most favorable for much of the east coast to get a shot at rain and/or thunderstorms. 

Meanwhile, an upper level trough well to the west near the Desert SW region (see below) will be opening up and traversing across the Deep South. This system will eject upper level energy out in phases too difficult to peg down in timing. It will be a matter of a disturbance traversing over the state coincident with late afternoon peak heating combined with sea breeze/lake breeze/outflow boundary collisions that will be the strong/severe storm determinants today through Thursday. The boundary will sink further South by Friday morning through at least Saturday.

In General, this is the track of the low pressure upper level trough. It will take until early next week to pass near Florida if even at all. So far, this has been the trend in guidance from the GFS model (Global Forecast System). With that, we can see a down trend in activity on Friday through Saturday, but it could pick back up again by late Sunday or Monday
As noted   above captioned image, the frontal boundary near Central will eventually get shoved southward toward the keys area. But, as that upper trough approaches, moist and unstable air will get drawn back northward in advance of that trough. Thus, the frontal boundary to come back north by near the end of the weekend. resulting in another round of summer like weather with highs in the lower 90Fs, although cooler on Friday and Saturday along the east coast under the influence of a predominant easterly sea breeze those day.

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