"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Friday, January 13, 2012

Florida Front Frolics Forth and Through

Infrared Satellite image shows front's position around 730AM south end of Lake
Okeechobee, after clearing Central around 6AM. Red shows in general the jet stream level winds today through most of the weekend and thin patches of high clouds associated with those winds. Another image further down shows those winds in graphic form.

Colorized Depiction with labels of surface temperature in Fahrenheit Degrees at 730AM EST. The 60F line HAD been north of Dead Central prior to the front early, early this morning. Blue arrows show direction of colder air impingement southward.

TODAY: Best surprise is no surprise in the case of today. That being, the cold front went through per schedule and is now toward the south end of Lake Okeechobee one hour after sunrise. Much drier air is located over North Florida with dew point temperatures in the upper teens to mid 20Fs. In comparison, the Daytona Area has dewpoints now in the mid-upper 30Fs and East Central toward Canaveral remains a good 10-15 degrees higher. The dew points  are a good determinant of how dry the air is. The lower the dewpoint the drier the air. The dry air is working south all day along with the colder air (drier air holds less heat).

Highs today will likely not get above 60F north of a line running through Melbourne or Palm Bay area toward South Tampa Bay...with highs near the lower 70Fs far South Florida. Highs in the lower 50Fs North Florida. NW wind all day at 10-15mph.  This cold spell in a sense will not be as bad as the previous one for two reasons. 

1) It looks like we will start out with less brisk of a wind thus wind chill temperatures not a big player; and, 

2) All in all over night lows not looking to get toward freezing on any overnight period. 

This will simply be a bit of a prolonged very cool to cold period with intermittent cloudier periods, especially over the Southern 1/2 to 1/3 of the state through the weekend. Thus, although it might be cooler further north (North Central and North), this area is more likely to see more of the sun and feel direct warmth from it's rays as opposed to those in South Florida. Give or take which ever one prefers. 

Today and Saturday Jet Stream Winds forecast with front location mid- morning today drawn in. This shows the air mass moving over Florida will be a bit of a modified Pacific NW type and not straight from the North Pole as is the case when there is a widespread freeze over the state. This also shows how Pacific type winds are playing in to the equation, aiding in the modification of the' air mass', although this depiction is for generally 30,000 ft aloft (6 miles over head), as opposed to at the ground.

Note the wind speeds annotated in the image above provided within the white squares with values ranging from 70 - 120 knots (kts).

SATURDAY/SUNDAY: Coldest overall day, colder than today all areas by generally 3-6 degrees during the day and much colder Saturday morning all areas, as well as Sunday morning.  The warmest overnight lows will likely be EAST of the both rivers in Brevard County and southward. Same reasoning will apply far west coast south of Tampa. Lows do not appear will get to freezing except toward far North Florida, but mid-upper 30Fs and lower 40Fs could be widespread these mornings. Those warmer areas will likely remain closer to the mid-upper 40Fs, and warmer Keys and coastal SE Florida.

MONDAY: Still no change in previous line of thinking. Warmer east coast as onshore winds develop over night Sunday night or late in the day, preventing temperatures from falling along the east coast. No truly Cold spell   for QUITE SOME TIME TO COME also remains at this point;  only perioeds  "on the cool side" from time to time (so far). Maybe some showers or at least a cloudy period toward Wednesday with the next front, but as stated, cold air with this next boundary has yet to materialize more than a few tics below normal  seasonable readings.

No comments: