TODAY: A bit hurried today, but wanted to post considering the 'what appears will be' situation per latest model runs, current very active radar, and satellite imagery. Some basics are warranted for insight as to why we are having some rain today in an otherwise what would be a no frills day.
The remains of the old front of late last week are not apparent any more (the one that crossed on Thursday) in the wind fields, but the moisture remains after backing back north the past two days. So there we have that factor to consider (moisture). The next is that there appears to be a shallow but nonetheless readily apparent inverted trough running from the SE coast of the state NNW ward toward West of JAX. The trough comes ashore over South Central Brevard, and all of the rain showers are occurring to the east of that boundary , but...there is one more participant, the clincher. A 700mb trough (at around 10,000 ft) is passing to the north of the state and across the north half of it as well. With that trough is a more westerly wind flow as opposed to ENE-ESE winds at the surface. This trough in the mid-levels will cross the state (mostly to the north) today, not reaching south of Central Florida. Thus, rainshowers along the intersect of the low level and moist easterly component winds under the westerly component winds aloft (and likely some weak energy)...will continue to manifest before us as clouds and rain as can be seen in the above image. The best chance for rain shower/rain chances later today per the NAM, GFS, and RUC models of 2AM are closely 'concesused' in the lavender area this afternoon, although who Really Knows. Best bet though,and willing to lay down the cards.
TUESDAY: Shower chances, although less prevalent, will oblige to shower further south from near Brevard toward Vero..or maybe toward West Palm, mainly east side. Our easterly wind component slowly backs toward ENE-NE by Wednesday, inducing some drying and ending rain chances. But until then, some showers possible tomorrow as well but not as heavy as some that are occurring today ..especially like those toward JAX at this hour. Cape Canaveral had a good shower about 45 minutes prior to this writing, long gone now. Radar is not overly illuminated toward Central but NE FLorida is a different matter. We can look though, see for yourself...
BEYOND: After Tuesday we are 'good to go' with less chance of rain. NE - ENE winds continue and could become breezy at times, but no changes really as far as our current temperature regime is concerned. In fact, not much change AT ALL up until Christmas? Can it be? I'm waiting for Jack Frost's Ax to Fall...as was the case last year...but so far he does not seem to have his sights set on a Florida Get Away any time soon. Hooray!