"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Thursday, June 14, 2012

Chance of Active Lightning Storms Interior After 4:30pm Central

Image shows low continuing to spin near Panama City early afternoon. Boundary 'seems' to extend from that low down the spine of the state toward the previous boundary that passed down and through Central late yesterday (blue dashes). 
TODAY: After a fairly lightning active day with a few reports of pea to nickel sized hail in North to North Central and likely toward Lake Okeechobee (west of Vero to Ft. Pierce) today is amounting to look not all too much different for later today so far with the difference being that activity should for the most part remain away from the I-95 corridor. Do not think we'll hear and severe weather warnings, but some Special Weather Statements could be in order.

Factors today:  First, winds aloft today per model guidance are not steering quite as strong as yesterday to the east, BUT..the KSC sounding showed winds just as strong as yesterday in the steering level, which leaves the First Question in my  mind right from the get go. Why is that? Did the guidance not pick up on the KSC sounding or was it a fluke sounding? Latest trends are not showing activity to the north being steered, but then again, models are not showing winds aloft to the north to be as strong in the first place either. Even though graphic does not show it, (as you will see), the area closer toward I-95 in South Brevard toward Vero/Ft. Pierce again might want to consider the better chance of rain and thunder.

Additionally as of this hour, models do not seem to have a grasp on the situation today AT ALL. Or rather, there is little consensus in the precip. fields. Thus, some of this post is based on trends and playing "Seer-caster". 

Second factor. There is quite a bit of instability over the Atlantic off shore the Cape and north as well as in the Gulf. Suspect both sea breezes could become active today, with any activity being steered by
A. The inland extent of the sea breeze fronts
B. Localized boundaries established by the local Lake Breezes
C. Propagation from north to south along either sea breeze as a result of outflow from any previous storm further north.  

Third factor: At time, conditions SOUTH of where storms are now occurring are not favorable for storms due to a few mitigating factors as a 'dry ripple' runs west to east across South Central or south of I-4 for the most part. This area should move on with a moisture surge coming in later today couple with the "sea breeze squeeze -  rush hour shuffle" ..enhancing activity right after peak heating and as other conditions in the atmosphere become more diurnally favorable by nature.

Suspect overall storm motion will be slow, with localized 'deep puddling' of water, frequent lightning especially after 5:00 pm to 7:30pm in the interior of Central working toward South Central.  The Areas that seem could be bigger targets are parts of Seminole, Orange, Osceola, Polk, and west Volusia perhaps, toward Lake County. Some activity 'could' enter Brevard but do not believe it would be nearly as potent as activity in the vicinity of the spine of the state. Light rain could fall south of the Cape, but so far lightning does not seem in the cards.  As usual, lightning is the main threat, although small hail (which poses no threat) is again possible as well as some stronger wind gusts where initial storms form and the collapse after reaching their maturation stage.

Activity could work into South Florida as well later today. Conditions look more favorable than yesterday and the day down to the South   for later today as the air mass modifies to the north and works south with time. Once again, though, what is working against most everyone south of where storms are occurring now is High Downdraft CAPE values, which are favorable for strong wind gusts, but first a storm has to be able to generate in that environment.

 BEYOND: With that mess taken care of, not too much to write about really through at least mid-week next week other than there could be a period of breezy onshore winds come Saturday northern coast, periodic cloud bands with showers with timing being an issue in this regard but most likely early morning toward noon time working west during the day for Sunday as well.  

The low near Panama City will open up and merge with a mid level trough to sink down the state from a low offshore the Carolinas. Behind the boundary ENE winds will develop through the 8000 ft level at least, eventually bringing Atlantic showers and patches of clouds in to the coast and across the state from time to time.

Sunday could be the more rainy chance day of the weekend as the depth of ENE-NE flow increases. The only chance of thunder appears to be South and West Florida, but would not be totally shocked to hear thunder coming in off the ocean from the Cape and South over the weekend as instability will be offshore and air aloft rather cool given the circumstances.

No tropical concerns other than the usual question mark near the Yucatan Peninsula. Trends are pointing further and further west for development in that area, but exactly how much development is a moot point for U.S. Interests as it looks now; at least in  regarding direct impacts.  Moisture surge could be in the making from the South late next week, otherwise, the Non-Existent  One True Summer conditions of what would be typical for Florida this time of year continues, just like all of 2012 has been so far. Typically untypical. Makes one wonder if Climate Change is an oxymoron defining itself within its own limited bounds.    

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