"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Tuesday, June 11, 2013

Chance of Strong and IsoTempo- Near-Severe Thunder Later Today

MORNING CAPE Sounding showed colder air aloft this morning, and surface and mid-level based instability is also much higher today than the best several days. With a boundary in place near to north of I-4 which should drop toward Dead Central by early afternoon accompanied by late Day Sea breeze collisions suspect today could get rather active. Some storms could be briefly near severe or strong resulting in brief heavy downpours and small pea sized hail over hte interior. Sttering is quite light some most storm motions will likely be translation along sea and liake breeze boundaries with a slight drift toward the East to ESE, especially early on

Yesterday's Sunrise "Walkies" in Cape Canaveral Florida

TODAY: Morning sounding shows upper level temperatures much cooler that past two days, and current surface based instability already approaching 4000 CAPE (which is high and unstable), along with more unstable lifted index and cold air aloft accompanied by outrageous dew points and plentiful moisture aloft (but not too much)  could result in strong storms today with frequent lightning , maybe some small (non damaging) hail, and blinding rainfall along the interstates and state roads across the interior , especially after 4:30 -700pm over the interior. Light low level winds should allow sea breezes to work inland slowly but surely for a late day collision. There is a remnant surface boundary to 2000 feet that has snuck south toward I-4 which might act as an earlier than usually trigger, which could sink toward the 528 corridor later before dwindling out tonight. There is already a secondary extremely and barely discernible near 528  and riding up along the Cape as I type as well...extending west toward Tampa Bay.

WEDNESDAY: Hard to say for sure. Morning (early early on) models didn't really pick on the trend that is currently going on over the state, the RAP is just figuring it out hour by hour. Thus, guidance from last night could well be off for tomorrow. Looks like tomorrow through Saturday could stand to be a variation on a daily basis of the same theme, with one day (maybe tomorrow or Thursday) being a less active day. The previous post the other day highlighted the Thursday to weekend time frame for strong storms, and so far that still stands, but exactly where is still questionable.

BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY: Looks like a pattern shift that could last several days, meaning lower rain chances (mainly toward South Florida) for several locations.

Cape Canaveral on Monday Sunrise Surf 

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