"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Monday, July 20, 2015

Better Thunder Chance Along/North of I-4

Crepuscular Rays Crown a Thundershower over West Merritt Island Sunday Afternoon
TODAY: Conditions look similar to yesterday for the most part outside of some minor variances on the KSC sounding - temperatures aloft are within 1C of yesterday at 700mb & 500mb respectively but there is just a bit more moisture and convective temperature was around 87F (which was lower than yesterday at the same time of day). 

If correct and over a large area, this would mean earlier initiation or  about the same in regard to cumulus cloud generation. Guidance implies a scenario of activity first developing along what appears might be the mid-level remnant trough which is back to the north closer to a Cedar Key to St. Augustine line. Satellite imagery seems to imply another one near Tampa Bay running west out into the Gulf and might be extending across at least part of the land mass as well to the east. South Central and especially South looks to be in an entirely different regime today basically north of a line running from Ft Pierce or Vero and west across the state.  

Best consensus implies first activities to the North then working general east and south with time , very slowly along progressive outflows from showers and maybe some thunder. The latest High Resolution Rapid Refresh is showing some either heavy rain showers or thunderstorms (though small ones) as the best bet along and north of I-4 east half of state.  If a shower or storm form near Eastern Okeechobee region say like in St Lucie County or just north outflow from there working north might enhance showers into thunder along the east coast of Brevard.

Further south into Central it appears mostly showers until one gets east of I-95 toward US1 which would be near the east coast sea breeze front, like yesterday. 

Some spots might not see any rain at all today and in fact many areas will not get rain south of I-4 but on the chance it does, no one has said it definitely wouldn't rain either.

South Florida is looking a bit more meager like yesterday but overall might have similar inland showers and some thunder conditions mainly over the Everglades, at least per the most recently available information and over the western parts of Dade/Broward.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: Wednesday might have a slightly better chance of showers and/or thunder but almost tempted to take thunder out entirely except for one of the days. Temperatures at 700mb might warm too much making for such mid level lapse rates that despite the available moisture ...thunder just wouldn't be possible. So far it might be Wednesday that will see a slightly better rain chance.  These two days have the overall lowest rain chance but not completely negligible.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY: Guidance over night shifted a little continuing with a Friday - Saturday better thunder chance and overall coverage and backed off on Sunday a bit . Latest brings a better rain chance return now though on Thursday as well as a weak frontal boundary becomes aligned across Central Florida after a broad and weak low pressure area moves out into the Atlantic just north of I-4 during this time frame  toward the end of the weekend.

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