Images: (1) Circled area in Gulf shows the potential breeding grounds for more storm systems through Tuesday. This image is a forecast for 7pm (EDT) Thursday. (2) Radar image from 6:45AM this morning as pre-frontal trough passes across Central Florida
Neither last night's model runs, nor this morning's, grasped or are grasping "current events" even as they unfold. I originally had all kinds of images to share today, but deleted them all as things are "Not" verifying faster than they occur. To keep it simple, I included just a radar image captured from Weather Tap at 6:45AM (2nd image) and a general area that I expect to be hearing about during the course of the next 3-6 days from time to time as a 'hot bed' for surface low pressure generation beginning tonight through Thursday and again Monday/Tuesday time frame (first image). These system will not only affect Florida, but much of the east coast to Maine in days ahead.
RECAP: A pre-frontal trough (of sorts) passed through Central -South Central Florida this morning and is currently near the Miami-Dade area. Meanwhile, the weak low pressure area that was shown yesterday in the Northern Gulf has been absorbed in a mid-level short wave trough passing well to the north as expected. In review, other than the fact that the brief rains this morning were from a pre-frontal trough, the origins of it are a bit perplexing.
My guess is that it is the boundary I had sketched out yesterday across North Central Florida as a weak, stationary front (which I surmised we'd never hear about on TV as our old warm front from Monday). As the mid-level trough passed to the north the boundary was pushed back south (and through Central Florida) accompanied by weak low level convergence with the moisture already in place across South and Central Florida (with the added bonus of a warm day on Tuesday) contributing to a line of low topped convective type showers as the boundary entered the region of warmer dew point air. It had its benefits though. Other than a brief rain before sunrise, it cleared out the fog and low clouds which could have otherwise lingered into early afternoon, with the net effect being sunny skies and a warmer early afternoon rather than a lingering cloud deck as was feared would occur yesterday.
TODAY: The true front, be it as it may, is almost over my apartment as I write and will make additional progress south through the remainder of the day. WSW breezes early are now westerly behind the boundary and will likely become more WNW-NW during the course of the afternoon under partly cloudy skies once the actual weakening cold front crosses. Almost no affect on temperatures tonight other than further north where it will be cooler. Winds over North Florida are already from due North behind the front. No temperature issues Central and South Florida. The front may never cross the tippy tippy toe of the state south of Miami proper, but rather wash out completely and/or pull off to the east in a 'side swipe'.
With this in mind, expecting the same wind shift locally as high pressure across the Deep South presses from west to east (to our north) overnight in what you might have heard on TV as a "Very Progressive Pattern", which simply means there is no blocking pattern in place to dam weather air masses up in one general area leading to days on end of the same weather conditions. Yes indeed, the weather is changing fairly quickly nowadays and will continue to do so through Tuesday.
TONIGHT-FRIDAY: Winds overnight swing from NW-NW-NE- and finally toward the east to southeast by noon, Thursday keeping overnight low temperatures pleasant at the coast as the next front approaches. Things already get sketchy from here in regards to thunderstorm chances. But we will see a weak surface low form along the next front in the Gulf (which might be so weak or indiscernible we'll never hear about it) which will cross the state Friday much like what occurred on Monday. But Thursday is "adjust and realignment' day...in preparation for Friday with no weather issues, although we might see more clouds near the coast due to weak onshore circulations.
Pressing on, during Friday wind profiles as we look higher up in the atmosphere will not be veering with height as was the case Monday (will not be conducive for rotating updrafts/i.e., twisting winds). But, as it stands now, we will have some respectable mid-level speed sheer as a low level jet forms from WSW-ENE overhead and increases to the 30-40kt range right across Central Florida during the afternoon and evening (Friday) but with close to nil thermal instability. Net result would be some heavy rain showers and maybe some thunder accompanied by non-severe strength wind gusts in down drafts of heavier showers, most likely along a line running from Tampa Bay to Cocoa Beach north to I-10 (the North half of Florida) during the time the approaching surface boundary (cold front) meets the strongest mid-level winds from the WSW described above. This scenario bears watching though, but currently severe weather chances (in the form of wind gusts) are minimal. The chance for strong storms pretty much diminishes entirely south of a Vero Beach- Sarasota line. This is based on morning model runs, so things could/can change.
Otherwise, would have loved to include sketches of the upcoming events for Friday and leading into next week, but it would take a novelette and publishing contract to get all that information in. In general, I think we'll have a somewhat elevated warm front running across the state very close to where the one sat on Monday (just to the north) by Friday daybreak. No temperature issues, but day time highs might not be as warm as advertised on TV due to cloud cover, especially on Friday. South Florida, no problem.
SATURDAY: Even bigger question mark, "he says with an exclamation mark". Will it get all THAT cold Saturday morning? Once again, we see a delay in the arrival of cold air, and like the previous delay the coldest air is not as cold as previously advertised by data once it does arrive. Will it ever actually get here?!! (Maybe not at all far Southeast Florida and the Keys...at least hardly notable down there).
Probably yes, but I'm not believing any thing until the Thursday/Friday system actually moves out. The consensus is, there is no consensus. But front should clear by Saturday noon if not sooner with now the coldest morning on Sunday. Either way, it's a short 'cold spell' followed by a very very quick swing/shift in wind directions 'round the clock in prelude to the next system which will likely be festering in the far Southwest Gulf/NE Mexico/Far Southern Texas since Sunday and just waiting to get shoved into the warm Gulf waters accompanied shortly thereafter with favorable dynamics for more cyclo-genesis (formation of a surface low) and more fun-n-games. Maybe we can thank the warm weather in the Desert SW for all of this.
MONDAY/TUESDAY: Just took out the trusty Magic 8 Ball (the one I keep here by the computer when in doubt of the GFS model, which by the way is often)...and it again reads, "A word of the wises, be prepared for surprises"....as eyes look toward Tuesday on the calendar.
Not ready to put a gold star on that day yet in indication that "something wicked this way comes", it's way too soon. In closing today's long winded post I'll reiterate that we can expect to hear about "The Gulf Of Mexico" a lot in coming days. If not, shame on them...