"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Tuesday, July 6, 2010

Rain Chance To Dwindle Through Thursday

(Image: Sunset along the Banana River, Cocoa Beach)
Say goodbye to the boundary-ville-o'rama. The persistent boundaries at all levels of the atmosphere are just barely discernible this morning...and if one does exist in the upper levels it appears to be down near the extreme Southern tip of the state. The dominant feature during the next 3 days will be strong high pressure pressing south from the mid-Atlantic through the New England states as mentioned yesterday.

Morning sounding is already depicting the affects of the high pressure with an east to ENE component in the wind from the surface through 10,000 feet and a lower PWAT at 1.83" (down from the 2.00" of recent days). The lower PWAT is also visually apparent by looking at the sky this morning with considerably less mid-level cloudiness compared to this time yesterday.

Today: Expect the influence of the high pressure to exert a greater influence across the Central portion of the state as we work through the day. Temperatures will be warmer today as a result of the decreased cloud cover although the immediate coast should remain in the tolerable range with onshore flow off of 79 degree ocean temperatures. Best rain chances across the immediate region will be inland during the afternoon...but even that prospect isn't looking too impressive by any means. The only chance for rain along the coast will come from a rain shower coming in off the Atlantic before 3pm...but again, that chance is pretty remote.

Can't say the same for the folks further south from West Palm down to Miami though. The high pressure won't have quite the influence down that way today and possibly tomorrow that area basically from Lake Okeechobee and points south still could see the rain and thunderstorms. And boy did they get it down that way yesterday! One location in Broward County received over 5"'d never know it up this way though.

I suppose it will be nice to at least see some sunshine today. I mean, if we're going to have all this atmospheric moisture around but all it does is make the sky look 'blah' it might as well be sunny. By the time we work into tonight and tomorrow the mid-level winds should increase from the E-ENE for a day or two as the pressure gradient in the mid-levels increases for a short time...but other than that down here at the surface we won't really realize what is going on upstairs. Even numerical model guidance has latched on to the overall scheme of things with only a 10-20 percent chance of rain spelled out by them through Thursday (after today). It is worth noting though that for today the last one I saw showed a 50% chance of rain for the Melbourne area....I'm discarding that though.

So when does the next true chance of rain approach? At this point, there is some hope on the horizon...and it's not all that far away. For now, yet another pattern change is in the cards beginning late Friday through at least Tuesday. This change will manifest mainly as a return to what would be considered 'normal' for this time of year across the Central Peninsula. That being, afternoon and early evening thunderstorms across the boards...most likely inland (of course).

We still have to clear the first half of today though before I'll believe more affirmatively that our rain chance will be close to zero for the next 48 hours. Yet another not so exciting day in the world of sky watching. Looking forward to at least seeing those towering cumulonimbus in the sky once again, but I'm not driving down to the hordes of people and traffic in South Florida to do it.

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