"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Thursday, September 15, 2016

Showers and Thunder Possible (Mainly Central)

Moderate to Heavy Rainfall Over Merritt Island Florida
Closing in On the Outer Most Barrier Islands of The CAPE on Wednesday

SYNOPSIS: Up front does not look to be as active today as yesterday. A boundary easily visible projecting from Julia lays nearly East/West along to just north of I-4  (see image below) and might drag a bit further south during the course of the day.  

Instability will be moderate today with precipitable water through the column at to over 2" yet still. KSC sounding revealed this moisture is rather evenly distributed through the column and not focusing in the low and mid levels which is not exactly supportive of strong storms. Most thunder today should manifest near this east/west  boundary somewhere near to mainly south of I-4 over the Interior and toward the East Coast late afternoon though earlier day activities from the east coast sea breeze may form, but mostly restricted to be rain showers until later today (but not exclusively).

Though thunder possible over the "Glade Regions' have omitted from this post due to low populace in that zone, hence low regard.

Yesterday's boundary interactions created for the better 'light shows' along Central Florida where a few SWS's were issued (Special Weather Statements). Rainfall varied varied from zero to just over 2" in the Rockledge- Canaveral Strip and down the outer barriers common with SW Flow aloft as was the case yesterday .

Temperatures aloft today are rather warm with 700mb coming in at nearly 11C which is quite warm (too stable?) with zero capping and a convective temperatures of easily reachable 87F. 500mb temperatures are not faring much better.   

Rainfalls today not expected (at this point) to be as high as yesterday but somewhere in Central Florida might wring out some high totals given the overall scheme of things, that at this point it does not look like a strong storm wording is warranted.

Steering from west to east is also much weaker today so it is questionable to the blogger if thunder (in Cloud to Ground form) will make it out to the barriers. Will give it the old college try and say, 'heck, let's go for it'..but not so sure about that. The mid level boundary on satellite imagery (as referred to above) is too alluring to deny that potential altogether.

At One Point Yesterday Storm Activity Did a Fine Job of Tracing the Coast
 BEYOND: Most rain-shower activity from Friday into Saturday and Sunday might be focused more toward Central and South Florida with areas north of I-4 remaining ' in question'  at least in regard to current projections.  

Rain chances really drop around Tuesday as onshore flow (easterlies) set up from the surface in the mid levels with spotty atmospheric moisture depths  meaning potential for coastal showers early through mid morning working inland during the day but thunder chances overall even during later in the day inland look a bit meager. But where those if any chances will be is too far gone to bother speculating.

SUPER DUPER BEYOND: Could the first cold front be on the approach late month? Would not be out of the question as the GFS and other guidance is showing signs of front to drop through sometimes between September 26 - October 1st.  Time and time again have seen the first front of the year between September 21st to October 1st. 

Fear not. Latest GFS shows temperatures will absolutely PLUMMET with this boundary if it makes it through to below even 70F before October 1. The ever true sign of fall's harbinger in Canaveral from my history here has been the elusive 67F on old mercury. From that time on..the gigs up, summer's over, and cooling bills begin to decrease.

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