"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Sunday, September 11, 2016

Increasing Rain Chances (Statewide) Tuesday through End of Next Week

TODAY: A bit more moisture today than yesterday but little over all change in the scheme of things. With onset of east coast sea breeze rain showers with possible thunder should shift inland and toward the west half of state with subsidence (sinking air) behind the east coast sea breeze producing generally a stabilizing effect for the immediate beaches. If ample moisture remains behind the boundary  might see some showers begin to show over the near shore waters toward dusk.

MONDAY: Little change from today though moisture might decrease a bit there is no good agreement between NAM/GFS and the difference only increases in the subsequent 24 hours. Will ride with GFS and say, 'little change from the prevalent pattern' ever since last weekend after Hermine exited the scene.

TUESDAY: Area of Investigation (aka - area of interest) near the south east Bahamas will be lifting west and north today through Monday to approach the Florida east coast. None of the guidance shows a close surface low but rather that increased moisture with depth concentrated in the lower to mid levels (at least as shown) and perhaps a brief mid-level circulation should produce a 'sensible of note' change in the scheme of things in regard to increasing shower festivities in the over-night to morning hours along the east coast shifting inland during the day.

The NAM model shows a vorticity lobe in mid levels moving directly in on East Central Florida overnight Monday while the GFS is much slower and further south toward the West Palm Beach  - Vero Zone Tuesday 8AM. The GFS is now in fact in line with a PREVIOUS NAM run (as of the last output) indicated a 'good chance of rain along the east coast' almost all day Tuesday with rainfall totals greater that 1" in some areas to in excess of 2" in others  ................

.................going into 1 AM Wednesday morning. Overall the inverted trough is shown by the GFS as well to shift west with moisture trailing behind it. That should shift the 'worst or best rain chances depending on how one looks at it' out of the area after Tuesday into mid-day Wednesday leaving more of a 'summer like' pattern favoring interior areas in the afternoons.

Either way you slice it though moisture necessary for showers and some thunder looks like a reality in direct association with this 'area' either late Monday or sometime into mid-day Tuesday.

Both models in varying degrees infer the potential for an inverted trough to extend from near the surface up through 10,000 feet from roughly off the NW Tip of the Yucatan to run northeast toward Central Florida to eventually Northeast Florida to act as a focus of convergence. 

The NAM also shows a better low level convergence boundary to form underneath that boundary initially as an inverted coastal trough which than assimilates itself into the mid-level trough. Most important! 

If this is to be the case, rain chances are increased as well as rainfall totals, especially over eastern portions of Central Florida southward toward Miami. Time will tell but for now running with the less pessimistic side of the GFS more generalized evolution of things. The NAM has a history of over emphasizing minute features , especially beyond 24 hours though at random times does quite well. For now, don't think this is going to be one those times.

BEYOND: As noted above, the moisture associated with the Invest moves in mainly on Tuesday and remains through at least Thursday. The GFS onward shows additional moisture from the east to move in keeping the air mass moist most of the time with periodic 'dryings' but they are short lived. 

Thus, any time that rain chances INCREASE or DECREASE are impossible to specify at this point. The GFS does indicate that any increase or decrease could occur within a 12-24 time frame. Thus, just because one day starts out dry does not mean it will end that way or vice-versa. 

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