"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Saturday, April 11, 2015

Long Wave Pattern Change in Progress - Rain/Thunderstorms Today

TODAY: Anticipated (for those monitoring) changes in the upper atmospheric pattern slowly emerging -- manifesting at the lower levels as a cold front that cuts across the Deep South and drops into North Florida later today. An upper trough near the Southern California coast and resulting upper Southern Branch Jet Streak is expected in some form or another to approach Florida toward the latter parts of next week slowly but surely to increase the winds aloft. The GFS has been advertising this pattern change for several days now (with much inconsistency, however, and as a result a variety of solutions).

Meanwhile, some colder air aloft with deeper south to southwest flow in the surface to mid levels will give the needed atmospheric moisture boost combined with moderate instability in the 1500-2500 (at least) CAPE range  for a better chance of thunder today. The only real fly in the ointment at this time is the potential for precedent cloud cover to overtake the area though so far no model guidance shows that will be the case (or at least, a factor) at this hour.

Though thunder is possible over a fairly large area, will watch toward the Central-East Side
 and also south of Lake Okeechobee (not shown). Will see how clouds to the west moving east affect (or not) instability later in the morning toward early afternoon

There is a small chance of some stronger storms along the east coast sea breeze boundary just west of the immediate coast toward the interior regions but closer to the coast in the Central/Southern Volusia to Far North Brevard region. The predominant mode appears now will be rain showers but again, some thunderstorms, possibly a bit strong are also possible later in the day as the west coast sea breeze works across to the east coast sea breeze marriage more than 1/2 way across the state (favoring the east half of the state especially from Southern Volusia South to West Central Dade County) 

Cape Canaveral Peacocks Strut Along "The Path"

SUNDAY: The frontal boundary will be phased out and absorbed by high pressure passing well to the north of the state. Sunday might see a decrease in activity as a result mostly favoring the interior and west side, though showers could still impact any area of the east coast at almost any time as it appears the moisture overall isn't going anywhere anytime soon. Cloud cover in varying degrees throughout the day and evening.

MONDAY-FRIDAY: Day by day for now until guidance gets better aligned. There are hints that Tuesday could be a rather active day as low level winds become variable at times (allowing for sea breeze and lake boundaries to act) but SW to NE steering increases. Overall..steering remains from west to east though only at about 10 mph or less (slow). Sea breeze convergence activity is the best bet. GFS shows rain chances across various portions of the state into next Saturday though that could change but only be degrees of overall coverage. Just exactly where though will be determined daily.  Meanwhile, the aforementioned Southern Branch Jet Stream winds could come into play by Friday or Thursday which would mean better opportunities for stronger storms once again for a day or so (perhaps).

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