"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Saturday, March 15, 2014

Great Weekend In Store: Possibly Strong Storms Monday

"A Light to All The Nations"

SATURDAY/SUNDAY: Pleasant weather in store near and South of I-4 all weekend as temperatures warm for both day and night. Very few clouds on tap for today with winds SE becoming more southerly as the weekend progresses with a weak 'land-breeze' over night tonight making for a cool start but quick warm up Sunday.  

Frontal boundary with associated low pressure systems will be taking shape over the Deep South U.S.A Region over the weekend with the  associated frontal boundary in toe. The best wind profiles throughout 'the column of atmospheric depth' will be over the Panhandle Region later on Sunday into post Midnight, but thermodynamic low level instability appears will be fairly weak in association with those wind. As a result, though some severe storms are possible, the flip side might be a much better chance of hefty rainfall totals. Meanwhile...

MONDAY: Near and South of I4 primarily. There 'could' be a weakening progression of the storms late night through mid-morning Monday as the front presses toward North Central Florida. I'ts all going to come down to timing, and models at this point begin to diverge. Going with the GFS, it looks like from near I-4 and north might be in the quiet zone time frame, with activity picking up by late morning near and south of there. Per the GFS, some prefrontal type individual storms cells could form toward East Central by early-mid-afternoon. Though wind profiles will not be quite to the caliber as they will have been over the Panhandle, thermodynamically speaking, it will be more unstable at low levels with some cold air aloft accompanied by a bit of mid level streak of strong winds primarily north of Vero Beach or the Sebastian Inlet area during peak heating. Therefore, could be some storms from wind gusts as noted in the image at that time, well prior to the main area of rains directly associated with the front - proper toward early evening.

This is showing 'possible severe storms' along the immediate west coast and panhandle as shown between red lines. Possible strong Part of Central Florida and South Florida..with East Central annotation in purple.
BEYOND: After Monday afternoon's activity toward dark and into the evening , activity should weaken and cloud cover begin to taper off (after dark)... it appears much of the activity could clear out by early Tuesday. There are discussions  on OFFICIAL NWS WEBSITES regarding other models that this blogger does not have access to stating the activity in regard to rain chances could continue well into Tuesday, but discarding that potential based on the consistency of the GFS showing to the contrary for several consecutive model runs.  

Temperatures will only cool a little behind this front, with a rapid swing to onshore winds within 24 hours or so and modifying conditions. No big cool down is the message with near normal temperatures well into the remainder of the week with coolest morning lows away from the coast over the interior areas. Another frontal boundary approaches later toward next weekend, but so far impacts appear will be minimal.

IMAGE: The 1927 Jasper Tornado looks like the cover of Deep Purple's " Stormbringer" album from the 1970s...when inverted "(the negative). Looks a little too coincidental.

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