"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Monday, May 21, 2012

Pattern Change Commences Tonight - Strong Storms Possible Tuesday

TODAY: Tropical "Storm" Alberto can be seen in upper right hand portion of the visible satellite image. The "Storm" has been moving steadily toward the East to ENE since before daybreak, and moisture is now filtering southward behind int utside the sinking air zone that much of the north half of Florida was in yesterday. Thus, we see the evidence by the cumlus field over NE Florida. Today looks also like that last day for  the South Florida region being the only favorable thunderstorm zone . A shower could occur from North Brevard northward toward dusk, and might need to watch for some thunder although models do not indicate this to occur. 
BLOGGER CREATER FOR this post is malfunctioning today, having problems with writing  from the Blogger web based blog engine as a result.....

TUESDAY: Pattern change contiues now as mid level trough moves in closer toward the state of FLorida,. Winds becoming SW overnight,  a noonish time sea breeze from the SSE to SE could set up and strengthen by mid-late afternoon. Hot inland, with a potential spine of the state heat trough setting up for the northern 2/3 of the state. With Alberto now fully out of the picture, moisture from the south can work back north, and POSSIBLE stack along the east side of the thermal trough, if indeed this does develop and surface winds remain nearly 'side-shore and upriver'. Net result with stronger vertical velocities aided by vorticity moving across the North half of the state in the presence of the mid-level trough, very late afternoon to early evening storms possible toward JAX to Central Brevard. Will need to watch from right moving storms once working perpendicular to the sea breeze. If so, conditions might not be too far off the mark from the last days last week when stronger storms hit this area. Other storms could occur over South Florida, but the dynamics in the wind energy field and colder air aloft, both lacking, would limit the same threat. Overall though, as it stands, it might very well be that only South Florida and the panhandle will see the storms on Tuesday, hence the 'conditional chance' of storms along the East coast as noted in the image. 

BEYOND: Increasing moisture especially by Thursday through the weekend seems to be a consensus at this point. Thus, increasing showers nad thunderstorms, possibly early in the day toward East Central by Thursday as an inverted trough of tropical nature in the low to mid levels attempts to pull together from the Northern Caribbean. Once blogger becomes 'operational' again, and we have a few more model runs by tomorrow, can go into greater detail. As of now, it appears, as noted in earlier posts, we could be running into an early day or noctural showers and thunderstorms east coast and the Atlantic, shifiting inland toward the west coast during the day for starters under deepening but light south to southeast flow. Details remain sketchy. The overnight ECMWF depicted a vort max coming in toward North Central later in the week , next week, from the east, whereas the GFS takes it well out to sea.

If  Thermal spine of the state trough does set up, with increasing mid-upper level winds from the West to WSW and an upriver wind late late afternoon into early evening, strong storms possible from Cocoa Beach Northward mainly east of I95 after 5:30PM. Storms (if any) very isolated, but nonetheless could be strong to severe, particularly across North Brevard County into Southern Volusia and northward. This will need to be 'revisited' after 3 more model runs by this time tomorrow. 

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