"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Friday, January 15, 2010

Gulf Storm Poses Problemmatic Prediciton

Morning data shows there is an inverted trough just off the coast. This can be seen visually via the black and white infrared satellite image also shown.

The pendulum has finally begun to swing even more in our favor for making the recent cold spell a faded memory. The last embers (dry air) should be all but gone by mid-afternoon as onshore flow advects low level moist air in from the Atlantic. Don' t believe that inverted trough, which normally could produce a spike in better rain chances along the East Central Coast (summer/fall) will produce anything more than clouds as there is a low level subsidence inversion in place (which limits low level vertical upward motion required for rain generation). It doesn't appear that it will fully breakdown until early tomorrow morning as low-level warm air advection more assuredly occurs. By that time the air mass over us will be fully modified, so with the inversion gone coastal sprinkles are not out of the question. We could see a few drops on the windshield today, but at this time it appears that would be the 'worst' of it.

The low level pressure system that has been the story of the week is actually now materializing in the far western Gulf Of Mexico. I was beginning to wonder if it ever would. So now the million dollar question is twofold: 1) How fast will it development and move east-ENE ward; (2) just exactly how far south will it stay before taking a more northerly trajectory toward the mid-Atlantic states?

With such variability STILL occurring between the models, which is somewhat unusual so close to curtain call, the question still remains: Will there be any severe weather here?! As stated yesterday, I'm leaving this chance at the very low end until something more definitive rears its face.

Current thinking regardless: Believe the surface low will move a little too far north of Central Florida --taking the strongest dynamics and shear further into the panhandle and southeast Georgia. Meanwhile, a secondary pocket of more unstable air will remain over the keys and extreme South Florida where better instability will pond - - leaving Central Florida in a 'hole' of only light-moderate rain for this event. And timing, gee whiz, that sure has been a stickler. Current thinking now is all the weather associated with this system will now occur from overnight Saturday into most if not all of the daylight hours Sunday. And it will occur here in the form of solid cloud cover with light rain and intermittent moderate rain. No thunder.

Now, that's not to say it couldn't shower just about anytime Saturday, it just would be of very low coverage and intensity/duration.

Like yesterday, because there is still so much uncertainty in the models so close to the frying pan this may all very well change. But for consistency's sake I'm holding fast to yesterday's discussion until something more definitive provides reason to stray.

After Sunday: The front, if there ever actually is one, will be stretched through as high pressure builds in across the northern Gulf. This is not a polar air mass, if anything this system is harbinger of a change in the air mass we've been seeing over the area the past 2-plus weeks. It is actually bringing with it, given its origins from Old Mexico, a much more seasonal air mass with normal temperatures. Meaning highs in the low 70s and lows in the mid-50s. No rain for at least 4 days. Cloud coverage during this time may become an issue, but given we haven't even gotten this bugger out our system yet we can leave that discussion for a more appropriate time.

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