"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Thursday, December 31, 2009

Long Term Cold To Bring in The New Year

It won't be as cold as this day shown from my apartment in Utah in 1985 though. I went for a 10 mile run after taking this photo....

(Today's weather conditions are referred to in later paragraphs..Facebookers ( click read on). Want to refer to the 'cold' stuff first as a prelim in these first paragraphs.
Friday Through Friday Night... the ECM/UKM/NAM forecast models are slightly slower with the timing of the upcoming MAJOR cold frontal passage---diverging from the GFS. But I'm In agreement with all (with a minor timing differentation), but what it all amounts to in the long run is that rapid Southeastward acceleration of the boundary (front) during the day on New Years is a given as a strong coastal low pressure system literally 'bombs out' over the Western Atlantic off New Jersey ....another guarantee (have fun..... J "T" C)!! . Any shower activity that materializes (which is becoming lesser with time during the mid-night to late afternoon hours of the New Year Day) will rapidly translate southeast and out of the picture. Cold Air Advection will RAPIDLY ensue behind the cold fronts passage.
In other's going to get cold FAST. We can expect a good 15 degree temperature drop within the first 2 hours of cold frontal passage..which at this time appears to be around the 10am-2pm time frame. But if the lagging trend continues as portrayed by previous, consecutive model runs since might be more like a 2-5pm time frame (but I really don't expect that). It won't take a "weather man to know" the first hints of a stronger wind, and much cooler air swipping away your "good hair day"..You'll know.."He's Baaaack!".
Regardless of either and/or/ but ..., by 6pm in the pre-sunset hours we're going to know that winter has arrived with gnashing teeth accompanied by WNW to NW winds gusting to about 24 mph. NO FUN! Boo..hiss...and Beyond Comprehension.'d think we're in for a blizzard!!

And old man winter is here to stay too...rain chances though, after late Friday, will be nil for a week at will warm air. The upper level polar vortex will rotate around the great NE U.S. *just like it did all summer by the way: and eject sporadic pockets of upper level energy down its base and across the U.S. Deep South East for a sequential period of days providing cold air "reinforcements"..(in come the troops)..and that coupled with a strong Southern Branch Jet "Streaming" just to the south of us or over us...will not only generate much below normal temperatures..but periods of mid and upper level cloud cover as accompaniment. Sometimes I just hate El Nino winters.

For now..expect today to be very comfortable with a high in the mid-70s and a land breeze (our saving grace from any wind that could come off the ocean's 67, if not cooler, temperature). But clouds will be on the increase as a gift from the mid and upper level winds that will propogate clouds in ahead of the developing situation (note that I didn't refer to 'it' as a storm)...although some cloud breaks can't be disregarded as a genuine possibility.
Nothing becomes to exceptionally affirmative (forecast wise) until New Year's Day Break whence we should be affirmatively be consumed by clouds and the approaching cold frontal boundary. Rain chances in the models I believe are way over done..some folks might not get rain at all..others might get totals up to a quarter inch.

The major point to made for this post is..prepare for a LONG DURATION VERY COOL TO COLD EVENT (contingent upon what considers cold of course). If you like a high temperature around 58 degrees and a low around 44 then jump with glee. Break out the clothing reserved for such occasions..why can be fun and stylish :-)
It will be colder on some upcoming mornings beyond the scope of this post..especially away from the there will be some flunctuations based on the timing of particulars that will materialize at free will as the vortex gives birth to sub-vortexes that will rotate around the base of the trough (hovering over the southeast United States..including Florida) causing it to sporadically dig a tad further south and thus allow the thickness values between 1000mb-500mb layer to decrease, ...AKA colder air to penetrate.. anything of significant, forecastable influence astray from what has already been written will be alluded to in later posts.

Thanks for your help National Weather Service, Melbourne. You pulled the words right out of my gut in your forecast discussions (the REAL SOURCE for our local weather) I could put them to virtual paper! You guyz rock.

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Wednesday, December 30, 2009

It's "True, Blue, at 72"..What A Day!

What not a better time to muse on something warm, cuddly and cute? One has to be in a good mood today if in East Central Florida (not discounting personal, ever so near, matters).. The weather simply does not get any better than this.
It might be even warmer now (after this post)...and it sure is dry too. Did you notice how dry it is? Any chance of one of those renigade rainshowers that, yes, are off shore just beyond the horizon reaching shore, is nil. There was a proplexity in yesterday's forecast that even threw the National Weathe Service through a momentary loop..that being the onshore flow never developed. Instead, a weak inverted trough (induced by the Gulf Stream Waters at the lowest atmospheric levels)..formed under which the immediate coast is right on the axis of. Winds are light and variable all around..but inevitably a light onshore flow ensues solely as a typcial seabreeze for the same reasons we see one in the the summer (warmer land mass, cooler ocean = sea breeze) due to rising air mass replacement from land to sea.
Despite all this, our temperature is warming oh so nice. It's so comfortable out there I can hardly stand it! They just don't "mak'm like they used to". And that fact is going to be definitely reaffirmed in the very, not so distant, future. Welcome Old Man Winter..because here he comes...and he doesn't have bells on his toes either. He's got Fangs!

I'm not going to mention what the Weather Service or Weather Channel are saying because , quite frankly, I haven't even looked! TV has not been on all day..including the pre-sunrise hours, but I will say that this script is a bit off from I expect is being publized on the main stream; therefore, check up on those resources to get the "official" (the National Weather Service being thus). I've just been too busy listening to music and enjoying just a few friendship phone calls and laying low...

Through today into tonight: A brief swath of mid-low level clouds to pass over the IMMEDIATE coastal communities between 4-6pm.. otherwise cloud free/rain free (regardless) as the previously suppositioned deep on-shore flow will not exist to transport showers to the land mass.

Picture This Mentally: As we go into the evening and overnight hours the wind at the lower and mid-levels will become south to SSW..preventing any off shore showers to translate to the coastal communties..staying within arm's reach offshore. Thursday is going to be a pretty decent day for the most part is the current train of thought (and which is where the disparity lies with the majority). We will very likely see an increase in at first high level clouds which will be evident at sunrise..then more mid-level clouds as we progress past noon time. But it will be even warmer with a land breeze and no rain. In essence, tomorrow..especially the first half..could be "DA KINE" (minus pure, unadulterated sunshine).
Holding off on the chance of rain is yet another disparity. I think the rain will hold even longer than previously, or even more recently thought. The first chances will be shortly before sunrise New Year's Day...then all day a very good chance of rain with best chances betwee 10am-5pm New Year's Day. After that, clearing over night with a mostly sunny sunrise on the 2nd..very cool..and getting colder..for a WEEK! You read that right. I'll try updating in the more 'near-term' if conditions warrant..but as of this time there's no indication of any severe weather..but there is of especially windy weather to add to the wind chill. Just expect an offshore wind component developing by morning..continued dry for another day (not even sure what the 'masses' are saying about tommorow because I haven't checked). Happy Pre-New Year..New Year.

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Tuesday, December 29, 2009

Totally Clear Most of the Day, Warmer Tomorrow

(Pictured above is the sunset during the passage of Hurricane Dennis off to our east)
We've finally got the coldest morning for the next few days out of the way, and the sky is completely clear this morning. Expect today to warm up to near 61 degrees today under continued clear skies and light north winds. All in all, not too bad although we could stand to notch to temperature 20 degrees. Those days aren't too far off though...or at least close to it. By late afternoon, say in the 3-4pm time frame the wind will have swung over to the NE...and some stratocumulus clouds will invade the coastal communities mainly east of US1. Kind of odd sounding, but right on the coast the temperature may very well bottom out at around 9pm..then actually warm a couple of degrees over night as the onshore flow deepens, clouds prevent radiational cooling, and winds continue to veer to a more easterly component. However, expect that it will only be east of US1 that will effectively feel the change...even more so east of A1A within two blocks of the beach. The western half of the state and as far south as Punta Gorda probably won't feel the change at all and will thus be in for another cold morning tomorrow...not that any where west of US1 will be all that great either though.

Tomorrow will probably be the best day for all areas across the boards both clouds and temperature wise. Could introduce a small chance of showers late in the day...specifically for the region north of Indian Harbor Beach and south of Oak Hill to the well as east of I95. Problem is that I don't think that we'll have a deep layer moiture recovery in full yet, so would reserve any rain chance to be extremely isolated even within the aforementioned area; nonetheless, the possibility will exist through mid-day Wednesday to mid-day Thursday.

By Thursday we will probably be clouding up pretty good with mainly mid-high level clouds, but the temperature will warm with a high in the low 70s. The chance of rain may actually decrease for a period as the onshore flow weakens and begins to veer to more of a southerly component, leaving any shower activity just off the coast. Friday will be the warmest of days for quite a while, with a high near 74 degrees but the chance of rain will also be on the increase along with more cloud layers. Unless you can monitor the weather continuously, I'd have an umbrella handy upon stepping out for the day...just in case you need by the time you return home later in the day if not on the way out.

A major weather changing cold front will be passing through late New Year's Eve into the New Year day, but timing is still a little iffy as to exactly when the actual frontal passage will occur. As with many cold fronts during an El Nino winter, the chance or rain will increase but not tremendously. We'll have to wait another 36 hours to see more specifically how the rain aspect of the front materializes, but for now I'd expect to be hearing the chances up to either 30 or 40 percent by Thursday afternoon. By late Saturday through Monday we will be rain free, but expect a prolonged (emphasized) very cool to cold spell. As of this writing, I'm not seeing a temperature recovery to warmer air for quite some least not anything totally respectable and worth writing about. Enjoy the next three days while you can !!

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Monday, December 28, 2009

Awesome Day In Store

Photo: Storm Chasers gather at the top of Scott's Bluff, Nebraska on a 'down day". I'm standing on the far left

Like the title reads...that's the story. The coming front is 'super obvious' on satellite as a knotted, linear rope cloud on satellite imagery stretching into the Gulf of Mexico. For today..before the front (we've already had a pre-frontal trough pass which cleared out the clouds)..expect a very pleasant day with a moderate WNW breeze and cool temperature throughout. Keep the sweater out and wear those clothes that have been reserved for an entire year though..because now is the time to be doing it...although they might feel "stuffy" indoors...just don't over do it.

Not much has changed from yesterday's line of thought for the extended period..or even the near term for that matter. Hey, we even had a spritz on the windshield yesterday..but not enough to get the ground wet. Hope you enjoyed it.

Only change, and which was alluded to yesterday as a forethought to a potential change to the GFS's line of 'thought' that the intense cold spell it was depicting will not, just like at Christmas time, become a reality. YEAH! Not comfortable with this resolution entirely just yet though. more run. By 10pm tonight we'll know a LOT more. For now, it's tonight thru Tuesday noon that we need to bundle up.

Front, boundary, flow pattern..whatever one wants to call it..will go through with no fanfare unbeknownst to us on the ground. Above our heads the weather gods will be yaking up a storm..but that storm won't come here..just the cold air for Tuesday. Be prepared. A VERY rapid repose to climatic or above norms to begin Wednesday evening with Thursday being the complex one. Don't want to be a liar or to provide false hopes at this I'm leaving Thursday and points beyond out of this equation (post) there is simply too many ifs, ands, maybe's', or but's'...but it must be stated with that just written..ANYTHING you hear or see about that time period must be taken with a grain of salt. Those forecasts are made under obligation...but the reality is that those in the making of them are as equally perplexed as myself at this time.
But I can provide this snipet of info which I believe will be an actuality...I also feel responsible to state this because I alluded to the same time frame yesterday. That being, from last I saw..and just like the Christmas 'threat"...we won't get Super Cold after New Years as previously thought. We'll just stay very cool at a level just below seasonal norms...for what looks like an eternity.

But for today, sunny..warming to near 68..but a warm 68 if that makes sense. But, as soon as the sun starts to hug the horizon I'm running for cover!

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Sunday, December 27, 2009

The El Nino Blues To Continue Today

Satellite image showing perfectly the odd cloud formation directly overhead in the first image. Look over the Cape on the east coast and you can see that thin white line...first photo shows what it looked like from the ground.

Typical, typical, typical...underlined, emphasized, and begroaningly stated. Oh so typical El Nino winter in place and to continue for the next 10 days. Expect today to be very similar to yesterday with mostly to totally cloudy skies for the most part with periodic filtered sunlight to occur at about any time. With the low sun angle and overcast sky it looks like either a perpetual late morning or very late afternoon all day long. Expect the high temperature to pretty much be the same as yesterday's with a high around 64 between the hours of noon-3:30pm.

Synopsis: Weak high pressure over Florida - - an extension of a much larger and stronger one centered over the High Plains of the U.S. -- will 'bubble' lose today and float over the area creating a light north to eventually NNE wind less than 10mph all day. Higher up there in the atmosphere the southern branch jet stream continues to race overhead at 25-35,000 feet at speeds at or approaching 100mph. A low pressure system is trying ever so hard to develop in the southern Gulf of Mexico, and it will push east today toward or just south of the Florida Keys. This low will remain weak if not fizzle all together as it approaches the keys with little to no weather associated with it. As it passes south of us the strong high pressure over the Northern Plains will also meander eastward"ly" and reinforce a more WNW surface wind pattern. The air associated with this system will be coming from the recent snow covered areas in the Central Plains and Midwest regions...i.e. - a cold source.

So essentially we're going to get a cold front although I'd prefer to refer to it as simply an enhancement of what we already have in place since there really isn't any discernible boundaries to delineate one. So enhanced that by Tuesday morning it will be...bite my tongue..cold with a low right along the coast around 46 degrees and colder and more toward 40 in rapid transition as one gets west of the Banana River. Cold and breezy to boot.

Clouds to remain in place today...and in fact will overall get worse before it gets better. Radar is actually showing that it should be raining across the northern peninsula roughly under a line running from Jacksonille to Crystal River on the west coast...but none of that "rain" is reaching the ground per latest surface observations from the major reporting resources.

However, I'm throwing in a very remote chance of a 'windshield detectable sprinkle' type spritz anytime after 1pm as we may gain a smidge of additional mid-level lift and associated denser cloud pack currently approaching from the eastern Gulf. Regardless, even if it happens 'rainfall' amounts would not even get the ground wet.

Tonight into tomorrow morning will remain cloudy but as the wind becomes more WNW as that large high pressure over comes the area we could see an opportunity for skies to break up with some decent sun on least for a 6-12 hour period of time to accompany the windshift. But there is some pseudo-good news in all of this. It currently looks like this cold spell will be very short lived as our warmest day, just like Christmas Eve was, will be right on its heals for New Years Eve. On the downside, it's during that period that we will have our best chances for I hear thunder then..maybe? Maybe.

As we go even later into the week, the late Wednesday to Friday time frame, things become somewhat problemmatic as every model run of any one particular model varies greatly...AND the various models do not agree amongst themselves either. What they do agree on is that after all that will be evolving in the next of the "train of Gulf lows" crosses us sometime within that period...we will end up with the coldest morning/mornings yet this winter. But we're talking nearly a week from now, so we can still pray that - like with this last system that crossed on Christmas - such temperatures will never occur anyway.

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Saturday, December 26, 2009

Get Down and "Snuggie"

Photo shows Cocoa Beach at 4pm Christmas Day. Nice rain shower seemed to be threatening for a waterspout, but it never happened of which I'm aware of.

If you haven't figured it out already (by going outside), it's obvious the cold front from yesterday has continued on through as the temperature is more than 10 degrees cooler than the past 2 days. So break out that new Christmas sweater or jacket because it's going to come in handy all weekend. Or perhaps you received a Snuggie for Christmas? Maybe you can wear that around to the mall or get one for your dog too and you can show them off while going for a walk :-); or maybe you got a "Wizard of Oz" blankie. I saw one at the mall - - it reads, "I'll get you my pretty" all over it with little pictures of the wicked witch of the west all over it. Too much!

High cirrus clouds and some mid-level altocumulus are visually evident both on satellite imagery and upon looking outside, and as it appears now, at least the cirrus clouds will be with us all weekend. We may get a break from some of the mid-level cloudiness though by mid-late morning and for the rest of the day. Rain chances are pretty much zero all weekend as well along with NW to NNW winds prevailing at a speed less than 10 mph. And so it will be.

Believe that from what I'm seeing on The Weather Channel that their forecasted high temperature is too warm. With only filtered sunlight, shorter days/lower sun angle, and light northerly wind component being the rule believe they've been overshot by nearly 5 degrees -- hence, I believe our high temperature will not crack 65 today and remain around 63 or 64 at best during the hours of 12-2pm. At least it won't be windy, so wind chill won't be a factor. Tomorrow will be pretty much the same as today, with the possibility of some of the clouds breaking up by afternoon as a shot of upper level jet stream passes on to the east.

Future? For now in general thinking, we will remain on the coolish side through Thursday, with the coldest day to be Tuesday when the beaches will go down to the upper 40s with the temps getting closer to 40 the further one goes west of the Banana River. Highs will also remain cool, with the first day of possibly seeing 70 degrees on Thursday. It also so happens that Thursday late will be our next chance of some rain. Plenty of time to see how things come together though, so don't go cancelling a trip to Disney based on what is written this morning.

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Friday, December 25, 2009

Have a Holly Jolly...

Radar images show the 'squall line' as well as the rain showers that nicked the Cape over night.
Things are pretty much on track this Christmas morning as expected per yesterday's post. We got down to 68 degrees for a brief time last night, but for the most part it hung right at 70 degrees. A quick rain shower nicked the Cape area about 3 hours before sunrise and we got a quick 0.10" of rain in short order with winds gusting to an estimated 30mph. But those are now long gone as most of that activity is forming and remaining off shore. The tornado producing squall line of yesterday is still marching east and now about 75 miles west of the Florida west coast. In line with yesterday's thinking, still expect it to break up as the supporting low pressure area which created blizzard conditions from Texas to Oklahoma and into the Dakotas moves NNE and 'stretches' out all the associated energy with it. As the line of storms thins an upper and mid level jet streak approaches our area and spills debris cloud across the state by 8-9am which should remain in place the rest of the day. Chances of rain will increase despite the fact that the squall line will become non-existent south of a Daytona Beach - Gainesville line as there is a band of deeper moisture and a tad of instability being shoved this way. Yesterday I said our best chances of thunder would be between 1-4pm. I'm tempted to take out thunder and just make it our best chances of rain will be during that period.

Otherwise, the temperature forecast is still on track with a high today maybe a degree warmer than yesterday despite the cloud cover. Why? We lose the wind off the ocean as it will start to come out of the southwest and not off the 67 degree ocean water. Rain, if any, will end by midnight tonight...but not expecting more than 1/2" anywhere as even the heavier showers that manage to formulate will be moving briskly due to the aforementioned mid level jet streak.

Cooling air temperatures ensue tomorrow with a continued falling trend through Monday with lows right on the coast perhaps in the upper 40s Tuesday morning but otherwise in the mid 50s. Probably up to 10 degrees cooler inland though or perhaps just west of the Indian River. Still fearing abundant high cloud coverage after a period of good clearing immediately behind the after a sunny Saturday we might be doing an about face to the pesky cirrostratus clouds. Still up in the air as to rain chances on Wednesday or late Tuesday...but as it looks now it's actually appearing to be more likely that this cold front will return as a warm front as yet another wave of low pressure forms along its remainders in the Gulf which will move ENE across the state and lift the boundary back toward us for a second blow...this time in the form of stratiform rain...blah's ville. But, that is still a big "if" I will continue to monitor this possibility. Perhaps when the later morning model runs have completed running we'll have a better idea of what is to come rain wise. Will reflect on this again in tomorrow's post.

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Thursday, December 24, 2009

Beautiful Christmas Eve Morning...To Go Downhill

Boy, it feels kind of 'gooey' outside this morning...and expect more throughout the day today, tonight, and all of Christmas Day. A very complex storm system has taken shape over the country's mid-section over night with a surface low pressure system near extreme NW Louisiana and appended cold front/developing squall line extending south from it into the Gulf of Mexico. The southern extent of the squall line is starting to move out of radar range but is easily detectable via satellite imagery. Will it make it here? Don't think so.

(Note: You can click on the Title of this post to see a Christmas Video if reading this from Blogger)

For today, expect due east winds off the 65 degree ocean temperature mixing with an air mass that is trying to warm up 10-15 degrees warmer than that. The result will be very 'sticky'. Temperatures will struggle to warm up as much as they'd like to as a result, but it still will be up around 75 degrees today. Good thing about today over the past few days, there is currently few to no clouds out there as of this writing and it's 67 degrees. In fact, we 'bottomed out' at 67 around 7pm last night, and it never got any cooler due to the onshore winds which kept our temperatures easily 10 or more degrees warmer than our friends over toward Orlando and Tampa. Gotta love the coast (sometimes). You'll see that in early spring it becomes the storm lovers curse. But that discussion is for another day, another season!

Chance of rain today is pretty much nil; however, latest model guidance is suggesting that by late morning we will start to see more clouds overspreading the area - both high clouds starting to stream in from the west in the southern branch jet stream, and from the east at the low levels as warmer air over runs the cooler ocean waters. If they thicken up enough a barely detectable spritz might occur, but I'd put that possiblity at the very low end or low ends. At least it's warmer air, as opposed to the odd situation we had in reverse about a week ago when there was fog right east of US1 at 5pm in the afternoon. The wind will start to veer to a more southeasterly component by late afternoon as the clouds continue to increase. Overnight lows along the coast...and probably over most of the area will only get down to about 67 once again or maybe a notch or two warmer for our late Christmas Eve. Clouds to increase overnight with the chance of a sprinkle ever increasing throughout the evening, especially after midnight.

Christmas Day. Not the best of days I'm sorry to say. At least it won't be pointlessly cold..but it will be totally cloudy with rain chances continuing to increase throughout the day. The now squall line well west of us will probably start to break up as it approaches Florida's West Coast...but there's a decent chance that pieces will still make it here. We could even be hearing thunder, especially in the 1-4pm time frame Christmas Day. I think the official forecast is giving us a 60% chance of rain, but wouldn't be surprised to see it get bumped up to 70% in one of their upcoming forecast release periods.

Rain chances will start to decrease significantly in the 7-9pm time frame Christmas Night, with the coast being the last to clear out...or at least have the rain end. After the system is passed, the Sunday-Tuesday time frame is painting a "lows in the mid-upper 50s and highs in the mid-60s" painting, with probably lots of high jet stream cloudiness which puts sort of a gunky mood on things. All this happening while yet another in the 'low pressure train' starts to take shape in the Western Gulf of Mexico. Timing on these system has been approximately every 5-7 days...and based on a study I did a long time ago, expecting such timing to be the course for much of this El Nino Winter.

Word of note: Caveat - will be watching for potential rain chances to increase much sooner than currently expected ahead of the next system if certain parameters materialize as indicated by one of the forecast models. For now I'm leaving it dry, but by Monday we might be looking at an oozy rain. More to come. Be safe out there..and try not to rush too much today. Joyous Christmas Eve!!

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Wednesday, December 23, 2009

O' Warmy Night!

It appears that we will have a nice Christmas Gift coming to East Central Florida this year, in the form of warm weather (relatively wintery speaking) with a low temperature Christmas Eve in the mid-upper 60s right along the coast. From Orlando westward it will be a totally different story by about a 10 -15 degrees colder difference. In any case, expect today to be very mild with a high near 72 degrees with light east winds and some clouds increasimg by mid-afternoon. The temperature tonight will fall only a smidge (right along the coast, again)...then Christmas Eve Day warms to the mid-70s with continued E-ESE winds (light). Christmas Day should dawn partly cloudy with the possiblity of a few remote rain showers around, with the probability increasing during the day and into the night... thunder is unlikely do to the stable nature of the atmosphere but we'll still see 70 degrees again. After Christmas Day (Saturday)...things go downhill temperature wise, where we'll be flirting with the 40s for lows for several days. Enjoy it while it lasts!

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Tuesday, December 22, 2009

No Changes Today...Another Day of Cirrus Debris

The southern stream jet has dug way south and is streaming from Yucatan across Florida in a wide swath. Expect more of the same today with maybe a "sundog" in the late afternoon. Cool as a result of the clouds. Same again tomorrow so may not need to post...but warmer...finally. Cloudy with a chance of rain all day Christmas Day. Then more of the same for at least 3 days after that. Kind of narrows things down. Wish it was summer!

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Monday, December 21, 2009

'Tis The Season...For Whatever

(Above: Ice Skaters in Cocoa Village)
Looks like most of Florida will on the 'slowly moderating temperatures' trend the next two days as a strong high pressure center moves east across the Deep South into the Atlantic off the SE Georgia Coast. The result here will be a wind shift, as noted previously, overnight tonight into Tuesday to the ENE. The wind off the ocean will prevent the temperature from dropping all so much into Tuesday morning (thank goodness...brrrr). Expect today to be much like yesterday, with a high in the very low 60s. The temperature tonight might only drop about 6-8 degrees as the wind shifts. Further inland the change won't be nearly as noticeable as they are not as prone to onshore flow temperature modification as quickly. Even Cocoa will have a harder time to note the change.

Don't expect a huge temperature climb though. We will get into the low-mid 70s by Tuesday and days on, but it won't be tremendously warm as it was when we were near record highs last week. As for rain, still looks like the time-frame for chances will be late Christmas Eve day or more likely evening into much of Christmas Day...yes, the time frame has been pushed out a smidgen. Good thing now that has been noted is that what originally looked like a very cold spell to occur is now not nearly so 'threatening'. Essentially, not as cool as it's been for this one. Hey, if this is all that Ma Nature could dish out this winter I'd be happy. This is nothing compared to how nasty it can get, but we have yet to survive late January, the potentially worst of the worst time. Look for lows in the upper 50s and highs in the mid-70s Wednesday along the coast (lows a little lower west of the Indian River and down by Okeechobee away from the water).

Just a little additional information, as winter is now beginning TODAY as a matter of fact, the ocean water will continue to cool, so the days with onshore flow creating such a tremendous temperature differential from inland won't be as tremendous, yet nevertheless will still (and always) exist.

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Saturday, December 19, 2009

Ave Maria - A Christmas Day (And Weekend)

Perfect Weather For Getting in the Christmas Spirit This Weekend. Enjoy the sweater/jacket weather and somewhat breezy conditions. Things will improve by Monday afternoon as onshore flow (winds) by that evening begin to modify the air[mass along the coast. The next possible chance of rain will be Christmas Eve afternoon thru the pre-sunrise hours of Christmas Day, with clearing skies on Christmas and dropping temperatures throughout the day (as it stands now).

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Friday, December 18, 2009

Severe Weather Potential Today

Shown is radar at 5am showing the approaching heavy rain which might have woke some of you up in Brevard County.

As of 5am, it appears a retreating warm from is laying directly across Central Brevard County. It is raining very heavily with gusty winds. This area will progress northward in the predawn hours as the front moves further north. After this area passes on by our attention will shift to a developing squall line that currently appears as if it will enter the eastern half of the state sometime between 1-4pm. Discrete cells ahead of this line will likely form and race northward will be between 12-2pm that we will have the greatest chance for an isolated tornado. The biggest threat outside of these cells will be strong, gusty winds associated with the heavier rain storms/thunderstorms (possibly). We have had a brief tornado warning already very early this morning at around 4:30am.
We will have modest helicity values and veering winds with height that will help some of the storms acquire rotation but instability will be lacking except along the very immediate coast. Most of the action should be out of the area by 6pm with lingering light rain and breezy west winds. Then the next couple of days will be quite cool, with the next chance of rain on Thursday.

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Thursday, December 17, 2009

Highspeed Dirt - The Song!

Continued breezy with increasing chance of ocean showers thru today. Then the potential for severe weather increases through Friday. If you don't have a weather radio, now is the time to get one. By Saturday cold air advection ensues and it will cold Saturday afternoon through Wednesday and rain free.

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Wednesday, December 16, 2009

The B-52's - Give Me Back My Man - Rock in Rio, janeiro de 1985

This is a great song. We are expecting a few more nice days, but things start to slowly go done the El Nino hill. By Friday it all hits the fan. And from there on...don't expect to see the 70s..or even the 60s for that matter as highs. It will never get to freezing though...just plain good old long sleeve and jacket weather. Watch for the potential of SEVERE weather for a brief window of opportunity on Friday morning....we'll see! If you haven't figured it out already, I love the B52s! And the hair-dos.

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Tuesday, December 15, 2009

Simon's Cat 'Snow Business'

We won't be seeing snow...but El Nino winter is now in Full Gear. One more day of 'weird' weather with foggy times at odd periods of the day, then we are in for warm and rain into Friday. After that..we'll see...but I do NOT like what I'm seeing...namely..COLD.

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Monday, December 14, 2009

Elton John- Your sister can't twist (but she can rock'n'roll)

Warm and Sunny today with near RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES (except right along the coast where a very light onshore wind will keep us right around 79-81). Orlando might reach 86)

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Saturday, December 12, 2009

It's A Blizzard! Somewhere But Not Here

What happened overnight?! Holy smokes!

This will be a brief one today as things 'appear' to be fairly cut and dry (the operative word) today. Yes it's cloudy and breezy but that's about the highlight of the day. Odd though, because as I type I see some small showers making landfall in the Oak Hill area; however, for the most part, today will remain dry. Any rain to fall will be in the trace amount or 0.01" category.

It actually warmed up a good bit during the dark hours but the incline will be slow today due to the ocean wind and clouds - - we still could reach about 78 though. It get's interesting overnight as the front finally returns north as a warm front, so there will be a window of opportunity (for rain) sometime between about 4am to 9am tomorrow morning. The clouds should start to break tomorrow as we are placed fully in the warm air mass behind the front with little to no trigger to induce rain. Sunday looks pretty good too for now but I'll leave that for tomorrow so there'll be something to write about.

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Friday, December 11, 2009

Steady As She Goes For Today

What was that rain all about last night? We were expecting some and it finally came, but the situation was interesting so wanted to present a theory (of mine) of what happened. You can see above to images: (1) shows the 1k Relative Humidity color coded and average layer winds at the time of the rain (2) shows after the rain had dropped slowly south with time and it was over for central Brevard but still ongoing a smidge further south. (3) furthermore, we see in the last image the sharp dewpoint temperature gradient as marked in black indicating the steep gradient from dry to moist air masses.

It appears we were right on a humidity gradient from very dry to saturated at the lowest levels and they were also being converged because of the differences in the rock solid air masses ... lift was generated...just enough to create rain across the state along the steep gradient line. As it moved south so did the rain, but so did some of the 'forcing' so the rain further south wasn't nearly as strong. We got 0.52 inches at my place.

For today, looks like we are in somewhat moist post-frontal position today with no triggers for rain until maybe very late (other than a possibly detectable spritz under the particularly thicker patches of clouds)...but for the most part it will be dry. I'd expect to see partly to mostly cloudy skies throughout, but the sun will peak out now and then. What might happen after dark is the wind will veer to more easterly doing two things: (1) transporting warmer air in; and (2) creating an inverted trough along the warmer gulf stream...these two factors could easily bring rain back into the equation depending on when the wind shifts...but at this time it looks like well after dark..say about 7pm. So theoretically it could start to rain around 8:30pm. Temperatures will hold just under the 70 notch today all quads but maybe break that threshold right around 2pm. Speaking of temperature, we only got down to 62 right here but know it was a few degrees cooler at most other locales. This was a full 2 degrees warmer than suppositioned it would get down to yesterday. I'll take it.
Things get very interesting on Saturday as our abhorrent cold front becomes friendly and makes a return visit from the south as a warm front during the night. Tonight's lows will be warmer than last's as a result. convergence along the front and the inverted trough could create a possible thunderstorm or two right on the east coast in Brevard County of all places! So will see what happens with that. Also, we'll be back into the low 80s thermally wise. Sweet!

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Thursday, December 10, 2009

Dank is the Word - But We're The Hot Spot Too

First off, it can't go unsaid that we can't complain. Sure enough, yesterday record high temperatures were set at three official recording stations around the south half of the state as was hoped which means most places that aren't 'official' also did. I know it reached 85 on my porch. The winnder was West Palm with 90...yes 90! Vero hit something like 86 which is just one degree higher than Canaveral (at least on the porch). Other places could have been warmer...just depends. Even turned the A/C on yesterday, but might as well turn it off now as "No such luck today".

Above are included the initial position of the front and a 9am forecast position. You can see how it's slowly easing/sliding south. Also shown are the initialization and forecasts for the temperature. First thing you might notice is how Florida, home sweet home, is in the brightest of colors in the entire nation including Arizona and S. Cal. Sort of like the big, red toe of the country.

Now for today we can sum it up as 'tricky'. Seems we are getting some pretty good 'boundary layer winds' just above the surface...and the air contained therein at a very shallow layer is actually warmer than right on the ground. Sort of like the affects of a warm front in reverse. The result is low clouds, in fact overcast at the time of this typing. Will the sun be able to burn thru it is the trick. I'm thinking "no" least not entirely. As the front sinks closer to us the upper level clouds will increase and shunt it off from doing so. Also, there is three distinct thin bands of rain showing up on radar...and these may grow with the help of the sun. These clouds would also put a damper on the high temperatures like we felt yesterday.

So I'm going to sum it up quickly today. Believe that we are in line with yesterday's discussion. It will be cloudy and somewhat gloomy and DANK. Heck, my cat doesn't even like it out there this morning. She had to come in and "mow" at me in displeasure and shake around a bit. Then went back out since she can't help herself.

Pretty good chance of seeing the ol' raindrops falling on our heads, but not continuously, and coolish with a high around 75 (hopefully)...maybe a few degrees lower. In fact, the temperature may just barely rise at all after 9:00am if it can even rise at all before that time.

Further out has changed quite a bit from yesterday's outlook, but the one thing that is holding to form is that it won't be getting cold, although by tomorrow it will be about 15 degrees cooler across the boards than it was yesterday (for comparisons/'the feel of it' sake).

The front that is going through by mid-late morning will progress down to S. Florida through the night and the cooler air will filter in during the late afternoon and thru the night so by the morning we might be looking at 60 degrees here right along the coast. But the wind is going to swing around to an easterly component almost immediately which will moderate things nicely. Just afraid we still might see lots of mid-high level clouds...sum it up for now as tomorrow will be partly cloudy but sometimes a little more so than others with a high near 70 if we get enough sun in here. That will be the end of it (the cool)...for a while until the next system moves in which in fact is already lining up in the western Gulf. But that's another tale for another day.


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Wednesday, December 9, 2009

Take Off the Sweater - Hold On To Your Hat

Shown is the NAM (North American Model) forecast for tomorrow morning at 7AM.

As you can see a front will be knocking at the front door (if your house faces north) per what this model believes as well has the HPC. From what I can see from the other models this is what one could call a 'good fit' for the overall set up. The first thing that stands out is the lack of rain (that green stuff) before the front gets here. "Whaaaat?!!" Yup, it appears that although there could be some it will be small and isolated. It what for FROPA (frontal passage) to arrive in earnest. Could be worse, look at all the pinks and blues on there to the northeast...that's gross cold snow/ice or a mix thereof.

Instead, we wait for it to get here and then as the cooler air is moving in so does the rain. YUCK! (exclamation point). And to make matters worse once it gets here, it's here to stay. As in, all day.
Not necessarily continuously, but from the best I can tell it might as well be. But fear not, yes it's a cold front but it really won't get cold unless one considers the mid 60s cold for a low and low to mid 70s for a high. The rain should end by Friday morning...for a day. "What" again you say?

The next week at least is going to be very busy on the weather maps so hold on to your hat (reason 1) busy I can't elaborate much on timing issues other than to say a series of low pressures are going to pass over as this front shown will make it only as far south as South Florida. It will move north with each 'low' riding long it as a warm front, then drop back south as the low passes by as a cold front again..and this happens yet again about 4 days after that one. So conditions will be changing a lot around here after today for a solid week. And most of the time it will be cloudy but not cold...just maybe a tad cool.

Now for more urgent matters, what about today? It seems that what you see right now is what you got for the entire day. Being mostly sunny to partly cloudy and maybe we'll reach that record high referred to yesterday. In any case, it should get up to about 82-84 unless we get too many clouds at the wrong time of day...namely between 11-1pm. It will be windy too which is reason 2 for holding on to your hat. Especially watch those causeways and waterways as well as the beach. Any open area could see winds of something like 16 gusting to least.
Leaving deeper analysis and elaboration for coming days for tomorrow and as those future times draw nigh. Each model run has varied CONSIDERABLY as to what will eventually transpire so there's no point in stating anything more other than what already has been until things get narrowed down. Tomorrow is tough enough to have any guarantees on. Maybe it won't be all the bad rain wise, and just 'deeply cloudy and overcast'.

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Tuesday, December 8, 2009

Warm, Soupy, Shorts and Flip-Flops For Today

While many parts of the country are contending with very cold air and snow (lots of it) about the only thing we have to contend with is morning fog (in some spots) and very muggy air with high temperatures in the low 80s today. Not bad. Thanks for the soup Wolfgang (it will be Chicken Noodle out there the next 2 days). The image above portrains the current conditions (as I type). That little yellow trough line off our coast has been generating showers all night just along the coast but that will all lift north during the mornings as our wind becomes SSE. Hard to believe I''m writing this while Christmas music plays on the stereo. LOVE IT!
And if this weren't "bad" enough, tomorrow will likely be even warmer as the wind becomes southwesterly and not off the ocean. Maybe some near record high temperatures will be in order. We will have some clouds today, especially as the fog that looks to be abundant state-wide right now starts to lift. Also, some high and mid-level clouds will start to stream overhead courtesy to the Southern Branch jetstream which is streaming overhead at about 80 knots this morning (at about 30k feet).

The only real chance of rain now appears to be limited to Wednesday and early Thursday, and even that is only a chance and not an all day rain event like we've seen in the very recent past days.

So overall, things are doing nothing but looking better and better as we enter the second week of December. And further out...say into the weeked, other than a brief cool down Friday things stay warm. Hallelujah!!

-S. Sponsler

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Monday, December 7, 2009

Warmest Weather in the Country Coming Up For A Week

After so many days of the dreary "stuff" it looks like we will be warming up significantly today and for days to come. A series of fronts will be passing through with little fanfare the next 10 days in the active ingredients category other than rain and perhaps some thunderstorms. The downside looks to be that we won't be having much full sunshine for a while....we'll see. The worst of days seems to be late Tuesday through most of Wednesday into the early morning hours Thursday. Doesn't sound good does it? But at least it won't be getting cold. Also, the Model Output Statitics are showing at least a 30 percent chance of showers almost everyday after Tuesday fact, as I type some showers are streaming this way but it's still very early morning anyway. Then there's other days (perhaps Saturday or Sunday?) that might not be so great either...but again it won't be getting cold with this front either with lows in the low-mid 60s and highs in the mid-70s....not bad eh?

The fronts will be getting stretched out i a west to east fashion rather than diving down from the north --thanks to the current El Nino type upper level flow over the Gulf and across Central Florida. In fact, for the most part from Central Florida and points south will have the warmest temperatures in the entire country except for maybe extreme SW Arizona on a few days...but south Florida will be warmer than that area in all cases.

So far we're doing great as of 4 am with the temperature remaining right around 70 degrees, where it's been since shortly after sunset Sunday evening. Enjoy this Florida weather !

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Friday, November 27, 2009

Black Friday, Blue Sky

We're right on track for two very cool days, warmest right along the eastern waters. Unless you live east of the Banana River, you saw a low in the mid 40s this morning. But over here on the beach it only got down to 51. The sun is full bore out today, all day, so if you're not in the wind it won't be all bad. I'm going around in short and flip flops today, but a light jacket is in order as the wind will make it feel much cooler, and if in the shade...forget it.

WOW! Did you hear the sonic boom as the Shuttle came in?! KaBOOM.

The wind should die down significantly shortly by or after sunset, so although it could get even colder tonight away from the won't feel entirely unbearable. Tonight we'll have a case of classic radiational cooling with a northwest drainage flow down the spine of the state. This will again result in the coldest of air to reside just west of the waterways with the coldest morning in store for Saturday. However, at this time I'm reluctant to believe that the beach will break below 50 again. Saturday will be another cool one with less wind and some high clouds streaming overhead, but nothing significant at this time until maybe sunset when they might 'dense up' a bit.

Sunday morning will again be relatively cold inland with the coast starting to see a rebound. The bigger changes are in store for Sunday night into Monday as high pressure shifts off the coast and a hint of southerly flow and more clouds (high ones) dictate that the coast may actually warm a bit during the night, with inland not as obviously so. Monday afternoon, however, will bring warmer conditions for all and the 'cool' snap will essentially be over.

For tonight's activities, if one hasn't figured it out all ready, a jacket is definitely in order (lest you be one of the very hearty ones). Bearing in mind that some folks in the local area will be attending a high school alumni football game and a street party around downtown Cocoa Beach., if you're one of them be prepared to dress accordingly.

Further out? I'm leaving that for another day. We have a solid 4-5 days of essentially dry weather, gradually warmer temperatures, and clouds becoming more of an issue progressively after tomorrow...and rain...perhaps enters the picture very late Tuesday. For now a very quick blurb is in order..being that at this time..and I stress this time..any assured chance of rain in the future stands it did occur during the post sunset to sunrise hours of Wednesday into Thursday morning. With this very progressive southern jet stream pattern in place things change pretty quickly and successive model runs accordingly vary widely; thus, timing on the finer details will continue to be an issue until we can see the 'white of its eyes'.

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Thursday, November 26, 2009

Happy Thanksgiving

The rain is over and the clouds will break today for a nice Thanksgiving sunset. The cold front has gone through, but the associated trough at the mid-levels still has to pass over, so the clouds this morning will linger for a while...maybe until noon time. But the clearing line is approaching and will be off the east coast by mid-late afternoon. The high today will reach the low 70s, so it will feel a little cool particularly as we get toward sunset as the truly colder air starts to filter into the area and the sun gets low on the horizon (and winds begin to pick up from the northwest). It's already cold up in the Panhandle, but that real cold stuff won't make it here. Being that it's a holiday and no changes in forecast thoughts are in store since yesterday's thinking...we'll leave this one brief.

Coldest days will be Friday and Saturday...with Friday definitely feeling the coldest due to stronger NW winds. By Saturday and especially Sunday the wind will be much lighter under abundant sunshine..although some sporadic high clouds could put a minor damper on things, especially on Sunday. Expecting a low right along the coast in the upper 40s by Friday morning...and a few degrees warmer on Saturday morning (although away from the coast it will still be much cooler to cold); however, afternoon highs on Sunday will be on the rebound. In general, if you can get past 10am those're good to go in short sleeves. But you might want a jacket if planning on spending much time outside on Friday.

Nothing significant otherwise to discuss. The next weather maker now appears to be a little slower in the making (approaching) than previously don't expect to hear about rain chances (from the blog at least)..until later Tuesday through the first half of Thursday.

Hope you and all your significant others have a wonder day.

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Wednesday, November 25, 2009

Expected Flights Today?...Possible Delay

(latest radar showing widespread rain, as WeatherKitty looks on).
The rain is finally arriving, with no surprise. The biggest challenge for today was figuring whether or not there could be strong/severe storms. Some storms, namely those off shore, have exhibited some weak rotation but not enough to induce a tornado. I think this will be the case for the day as well (at least over the land areas)...with anything stronger than a generic thunderstorm to be extremely isolated. I'll be looking into this more after returning from a morning shopping be advised things could change. Regardless, as you can see by the radar depiction, we have a broad expanse of precipitation covering much of the state. I woke up for a bit around 4 am and the stars were out and there was no rain anywhere nearby except over extreme South Florida, especially over the Keys. My what a difference 5 hours makes.

Don't have time to elaborate much today, but that's okay because nothing really has changed as far as today's outlook goes and as was posted a good two days ago both rain and temperature wise. Expect all of today to have a very respectable chance of rain as I believe the warm frontal boundary will not push north of us but rather reside just over to just south of us. I noted on running a radar animation (loop) that the precipitation is generally moving due north at a pretty good clip which initially lead me to believe the front would push right on through...but high pressure nosing down the spine of the state from the north appears as if it will hold fast and thus block the front from getting north of us (at least at ground level). As a result, we never see a good south wind (which would occur if the warm front were to push north of us)..but instead the wind will be a function of that high pressure area and its clockwise circulation..hence they should remain pretty much out of the east to east- northeast. This is what also leads me to believe that a better chance of thunder will be restricted to the southern tier of the state where southerly wind will work their way to the surface in earnest.

There does not appear to be any one, well defined low pressure system with this mish mash..but rather several smaller weak ones. One appears to be just off the coast of Sarasota...another one just to the NW of Key West..and another seems to be forming along an old inverted trough just to the east of Cape Canaveral - - all of which, when combined, forms a broad area of low pressure across the southern half of the state (and it's here that the most active weather will occur today). The northern periphery of this low pressure area defines the warm front's boundary (at least thermodynamically speaking).

As for Thanksgiving? Right now I'm tempted to reflect back on Monday's post, namely that we could still see some light rain around very early in the day with cloudy skies the rest of the day with the first peak of sun potentially showing its face right near sunset. Temperatures will be comfortable (in the low - mid 70s all day) the real cold front will not be punching through until shortly before sunset. And Friday? Again, continuing the same train of thought temperature wise. Namely, the warmest part of the day could very well be in the morning with temperatures dropping a bit the during the pre-noon hour, then holding steady and very breezy as much cooler/cold air is advected into the region under max heating of the day. The fact that the sun will be out on Friday and that the air is trying to warm us at the same time cold air is being shoved in alone will generate a lot of 'mixing' and enhance the surface northwest winds. Saturday and Sunday should be no worse than scattered high clouds and very cool by standards of late with cold mornings and tolerable afternoons with a notable decrease in the wind as day breaks Saturday.

Also keeping in line with the past few days, the warming trend will commence Sunday night into Monday morning as we regain our easterly wind component and marine air is nudged onto the coastal communities overnight.

Things happen fast from Monday to Wednesday as a "Southern Belle" Storm blossoms and moves east across the Deep South with yet another trailing cold front to sweep through which at this time looks like it will be early afternoon Tuesday. Rain with this system appears as though it will be restricted to Tuesday only. At this time, watching for developing of a pre-frontal trough which would pass through a good 3-5 hours before the actually cold front, and it's along that trough we'll be watching for decent thunderstorms beginning the post-dawn hours of Tuesday. But one good thing for a quick blurp, looks like we're going to avoid the coldest of air associated with this system too...courtesy of the ever present subtropical southern branch jet stream which has already been elaborated on in length in previous posts. Until that digs south of us..and then the northern branch digs south of us as well..we'll never get below 45 along the coast (for the most part). And that occurring is no where in sight.

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Tuesday, November 24, 2009

Very Cool Weather - Home For The Holidays

(mid-level stability/instability parameters paint where the boundary is this morning)
With all that's going on during the beginning of a hectic holiday season, its amazing that the weather is staying pretty much right on schedule (no flight delays there); however, it has a slightly different agenda. Rain, lightning/thunder, wind, and clouds are its party favors..and crystal clear blue skies are when it's taking a rest. In this case, it's getting ready to 'party' .
In other words, we still seem to be on schedule for everything that has been discussed for several days now so there aren't any surprises. The only siggy change I'm very tempted to make is to boost the currently advertised chance of rain. Right now based on current/forecasted infromation I'm willing to bet that all (100%) of central Florida from coast to coast will get measurable rain between midnight Tuesday to midnight Wednesday. (not discounting some spotty amounts possible today). That's not saying it's going to happen everywhere at the same time...but it will 'happen'.

But in the short term, just wanted to add a couple sentences about today. It looks like the stationary boundary for the most part was shoved down to the latitude of Lake Okeechobee last night and for the most part has lost all identity other than what is referred to in the world of meteorology as instability and moisture indices in an averaged depth of the boundary layer. In other words, the quality of the air mass over the state paints the boundary but the wind directions are of little help since right at the surface they are out of a northerly component. I've included a graphic of the Theta-E (equivalent potential temperature) as an example. Other parameters such as the lifted index and CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) well as opposing CIN all show this boundary. So despite what I've read that the boundary is way south of here, what's left of it still appears to be closer to home at a level about 8000 feet over our heads. With the ample instability (which is why I brought this up)..comes the possibility of instability type rain showers (convective rather than stratiform) to develop after heating of the day (from 2:30pm - 6:00pm) anywhere across the southern half of the state. Actually, as I type some rain showers are very near the coast of S. Brevard..and they've been progressing this way over the past few hours. The main thing that seems to be inhibiting greater areal coverage of rain for today is a ridge of high pressure nosing down as an extension of the Appalachians (which pushed the old boundary into south Florida at the surface)...but in the mid-levels I think it's still very close to home. I believe the leading edge (or southern extent of this ridge axis) will get eroded during the day...leaving everyone in a straight easterly wind component at the surface and westerly component overhead.

Also note the area of rain in the Eastern Gulf. That area is approaching for later today, and although I don't think it will hold together as currently manifested it does indicate a mid-level disturbance of sorts which could be just enough to stir the pot for later today and brew up more widespread showers. After this passes by we might actually see a break for a good six hours, but it's the bigger and now developing area in the western Gulf (as you can see on radar) that will be the real 'partier' from after midnight tonight through ALL of Wednesday. As mentioned repeatedly before, timing is an issue for exactly when and where the rain will fall...we'll have a better idea by tonight though.

Temperature wise, I observed that it was warmer at this time of day today than it has been for several days (at least on the porch)...and this could be adding some fuel to the fire for today further backing up the reasoning for a greater shower potential today ahead (and during) the approach and passing of that first feature in the Gulf. Not putting a percentage on this potential as it is a 'potential' and not a 'chance' as described yesterday. Let's leave it as a better potential...although I don't think it quite matches up as high for the chance that's being advertised, at least not for our daylight hours.

After Wednesday, in fact by early evening, the cold front will have passed Central Florida but drier air won't be real eager to move in during the beginning of the period Thursday...but enough will be established to fore go the mention of rain on Thanksgiving. Cloud cover could be an issue for at least the first half of the day Thanksgiving Day, but if it clears out sooner than that it's all the more to be thankful for.

Still think we will see little temperature change from morning and through the day Friday..with the warmest temperatures possible first thing in the morning. The coolest days will be Saturday and Sunday with lows in the 40s area wide (even the coast) and highs in the mid-60s. By Monday a slight onshore component to the wind which will have developed overnight should preclude the immediate coast from getting below 64 degrees (unlike our inland counterparts).

Due to the lengthiness of this post already, I'm foregoing mention of future outlooks until we get this one over with...but so far things still look like they could be active (say every 4-5 days for the following two systems).

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Monday, November 23, 2009

What Does a "Chance of Rain" Mean To You?

( Be glad your weekend game didn't end up this way)
Copy-paste yesterday and put it into today and there you go. No matter what perspective one looks at it from everything about today will be similar to yesterday. There are hints that by noon time and points on we might not see quite as many clouds, but we're pulling threads at that point. Suffice it to say that today it will again get into the upper 70s and be mostly cloudy with some partly cloudy breaks. The wind will be variable at 10mph or less. The culprit is a stationary front situated almost perfectly from Central Brevard to just south of the Tampa area, and it is there that the front will remain for the entire day. Believe it or not, there was 1 or 2 severe thunderstorm warnings issued for parts of the Central Peninsula but no where near here. In fact, other than that storm or two, there was very little rain to be found (no counting the stuff that was further north ala yesterday's morning). Also be advised that the official forecast is calling for a chance of rain. But that can be misleading...that chance means that somewhere in the forecast area of responsibility some measurable rain (at least 0.01") is possible. And that's a big area...and given that the chance is low...that means from the optimist's view the majority of the area (basically all of Central Florida from coast to coast) will remain rain free. I guess you could say the chance of getting rain today is the equivalent of winning 2 bucks on a scratch off lotto ticket.

[But what does a 20% chance of rain mean? From how I've understood it, that would mean that 20% of the area under which the area of which your National Weather Service forecast office has responsibility for could experience measurable precipitation at anytime within the forecast time is not specific down to a city or even a county. So in other words, it's possible that a 20% chance of rain is the equivalent of it raining continuously for 6 hours over only Cocoa Beach and there only (after all, that's less the 20% of all of Central Florida areal coverage speaking).] Of course that would never happen, but the possibility is amusing. (if any one reading this needs to correct me on what this "%-age" means...please do so. Much appreciated).

The same deal looks to be in the offing for tomorrow as well. Sigh. If you want a change then so be it. And at this time it is appearing that such will be in the offing commencing late Tuesday and through Wednesday. Although there is some disparity due to an event that has yet to even materialize, there is consensus that a weak low pressure system will form along our friendly boundary in the eastern Gulf by Monday night that will essentially trace right along or just south of this stationary front. The affects of which could be realized here by sunset Tuesday and anytime Wednesday in the form of rain, and heaven forbid, yes...maybe some thunderstorms around. We'll have to see what becomes of that situation when (or if) this event materializes...but in the interim expect to see more of the same until Thanksgiving morning with an increasing "possibility" of rain from late Tuesday through Wednesday evening.

In the longer term, it still looks like Friday through Sunday might be nearly cloudy free other than maybe some high cirrus clouds (few and far between), with somewhat frisky NW winds on Friday and parts of Saturday. In fact, our chance of rain in the longer term is pretty much zero until we get into the Tuesday to Wednesday time frame of next week. From there on out some really COOL (neat-o) weather is in store for a broad expanse of the southeast states in the form of potentially two severe weather from late next Monday through Wednesday...and then the next ..NEXT weekend (not the one coming up). Way out there, huh? (both in time and perhaps thinking). And for good measure as long as we're at it, nothing tremendously cold is knocking at our chamber door either until at least the second week of December.

In summary, for Thanksgiving: cloudy to partly cloudy with a high in the mid 70s and a slight chance of showers the first half of the day. Clearing overnight into Friday with temperatures varying little on Friday hanging around the upper 60s and maybe even dropping during the day (hence, the warmest part of Friday might actually be in the morning). Saturday and Sunday look for lows in the mid-upper 40s inland and upper 40s to near 50 along the coast with highs in the mid-60s.

Further Extended: If indeed the next two systems develop as mentioned above, a return to warmer (maybe even warmer than of late) is in the offing for Monday night and Tuesday. But holy smokes, we haven't even digested the turkey let's save more of the investigation for at least until we're eating left over pumpkin pie.

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Sunday, November 22, 2009

Like a Musical Instrument...Forecasts Need Fine Tuning Too

(above showing fronts, radar, and satellite images as of noon Sunday)

The stationary front that meandered across the central portion of the state yesterday got its long awaited nudge to the north overnight and is now being manifested as a warm front (for the time being) across the panhandle. The area of most likely rain, as mentioned since Thursday, is indeed very close to the forecasted position along the Gainesville to Daytona line as one can see from the included radar depiction and enhanced cloud cover via the satellite image.

Although right at ground level the wind will maintain an east to southeast trajectory today, just over our heads they are shifting to being from the southwest as I write. Believe those winds and moisture amounts at cloud level along with heating from the sunbeams above will keep some midlevel clouds in and out throughout the day. Fear not from the rain though. At least not yet. Animation of that rain area is showing no southward progression as it runs parallel to the front and the jet stream level winds. That surface low is going to have to be close to home before we start to see rain, but forewarned is that time may indeed be approaching from 5pm on...through Wednesday for the most part.

Decided that today I'd take the optimistic (conservative) approach as far as rain goes. Perhaps sticking the arm out too far for comfort, but going for no rain again today until near sunset as mentioned above. Even then, it could hold off (if ever) until after midnight. Suffice it say that the chance is present and can no longer be ignored this evening. The good news is, is that we will have comfortable temperatures for 3-4 more days. Just lots of clouds and the omnipresent potential for rain. Also on the optimistic side, I'm discounting the possibility of hearing thunder despite what I'm hearing on The Weather Channel as I type. For the most part, unless one were to update the blog every 3-6 hours to be 'most' accurate (especially by later this afternoon), I'm leaving it to the reader to be advised of the potentials arising later today. It's often tempting to do an update as I see changes developing to provide the latest, but I believe folks are capable of turning on TV and seeing radar for themselves. You see, forecasting when it comes to the short term variety, is not unlike fine tuning a musical instrument before the show...tighten here...turn a valve there...until perfect pitch is reached. The atmosphere is an ever changing fluid, especially in these perfect pitch may never be reached...leaving a sour note to the listener's ear. Let it be known that two models I looked at this morning are both indicating a decent chance of rain for east central Florida by 6-8pn tonight, and in one case almost all night (that won't happen, but just to give you an idea of what we're dealing with).

Such will be the case: clouds, rain, and temperature wise through Wednesday. I don't see any big warm up in the offing either with highs in the mid-80s as I'm hearing. Too many clouds combined with the slight onshore wind component precludes that possibility close to the coast, but perhaps inland could see low around 82-83 today with the coast 78-81 (at best). The warmest of air will be found from just north of Lake Okeechobee and points south. Lows to remain near 70 (only got down to 73 on my porch last night).

Thanksgiving will be the big transition day. So probably more clouds to contend with most of the day and envisioning 'sig' clearing near sunset. The forthcoming cold front may actually push through by very early in the day yet linger very close by until a mid-upper level push catches up with this surface feature late in the day. We'll first be hearing about the colder air approaching via our friends in the Central and Southern Plains into Alabama and Mississippi on Wednesday and Thursday..."Thar She Blows!"... and once it does, we'll know it here too.

Okay, here's where I'm going to diverge even futher from everything I've been hearing through the grapevine, that being the temperatures on Friday and Saturday. Numerical guidance is suggesting much warmer than what's being graphically depicted...and that's what I'm buying into. Namely, on Friday we might be hard pressed to reach best. Maybe not even 60!? This is a good 7-10 degrees colder than what is being advertised.. And that temperature will be combined with a decent NW wind at 12-20mph, so if heading to the Art Festival this Friday or Saturday you're going to want a light jacket or sweater. Basically, cold air advection (or moving in of it) will be occuring all day we might start out in the mid's 50s in the morning then barely crack 60 by days end as colder air is filter southward along the leading edge of high pressure building in from the west. Saturday-Monday all look to be very cool, but with afternoon temperatures moderating a bit, but nothing tremendously comfortable. Not a cold blast, but definitely a cool one.

And so it goes as posted a few days ago, "the next two weekends will not be as pristine" as the one we had last week (this week being the cloudy one with looming rain chances, and next weekend being the cool/cold one).

On a P.S. - the weather radio alarm just went off. Seems a waterspout was spotted well offshore the coast of Ft. Pierce just about 5 mintues ago. Neat!

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Saturday, November 21, 2009

Ruffles And High Pressures Have Ridges

(First image: forecast stationary front position and little surface ridges emanating from the High pressure center over Lake Erie this evening. Note how one is a relflection of the Appalachin chain at ground level. Second image...300mb - jet stream level - winds for the same time frame)
Today like yesterday and the day before change. The weather around here lately has been about as exciting as a game of tiddly winks (actually, that would be more exciting). Not going into ifs, ands, ors, buts, But suffice it say that nothing has changed from previous discussions, and nothing much will change, at least not substantially through the coming week. However, that's not saying that things are cooperating. It appears the frontal boundary depicted over our area this evening will be lingering around until at least Thanksgiving day leaving the cloud coverage forecast somewhat problematic but temperatures a given. It beening stationary is largly a function of the depicted southern branch jet stream (a classic position during an El Nino year). What is shown above is for later tomorrow...but it's looked that way for a few days now.

For east central Florida it will be just what we've been experiencing for the past couple of days with lows in the upper 60s and highs in the upper 70s with lots of high and off and on mid level clouds. There are periods in the outlooks depicting a slight chance (and I stress "slight") of rain, but for the most part there won't be any worth mentioning.

Oddly, things seem to come more together for after Thanksgiving for the 'all's clear'..but that is so far away and with the flick of a switch this could change as well. I know lots of folks want to know what the Thanksgiving Weekend will be like, but we have to be realistic here. That is five days out...and unless we were under some extreme conditions one way or another things tend to move little, so the best way to look at it is that things will kind of ooze into transition. A very 'sketchy' outlook for now is 'painting' the scenario for 'Art' Festival goers of slightly cooler temperatures (high just near 70 and low in the mid 50s) for Friday and Saturday...gradually moderating after that. Clouds and rain wise? Probably lots of clouds around until the day after Thanksgiving...maybe longer (and this is where it really gets sketchy). For simplicities sake no elaboration is going to be made as to all the reasons why things are would be like trying to describe how to assemble a Rubik's cube in two sentences.

Bear in mind, anything you hear or see on The Weather Channel or the news is subject to change..quite literally...because frankly forecasting out that far under our current set up is beyond the scope of reality and purely fictional (despite what they'd like to lead a person to believe). Just being honest. The only thing I can say with a very high degree of confidence is that it won't be windy (no gusts above 20mph) and it won't be cold and it won't be a wash out (of rain).

A word of the wises, be prepared for surprises. For the next forecast, perhaps we should consult the O.I.U.J.I. model.

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Friday, November 20, 2009

Fall Closing In (in earnest) - Inch by Inch

(shown-one model's forecasted position of our future low and fronts Saturday morning)
Cyclogensis (development of a surface low) does indeed appear to be in full swing along the Texas southeast coast this morning, as was forecast by the models for many days. Kind of amazing when one thinks about it. This will be the 'story' of the day through the weekend as far as the weather around Florida is concerned. It was mentioned Wednesday that a post probably wouldn't be necessary for Thursday...thus, no post. Actually, today isn't really necessary either but now that changes are looming (developing) just across the 'small pond" (Gulf of Mexico) its worth a blurb or two to get the weekend started.

Today: Temperatures, wind, and clouds all pretty much status quo with the past two days. Many areas had fog this morning so as that burns off expect to see some of the lower stuff around until late morning at least (maybe until the 12-1pm time frame)..but a high/mid level cloud mix will be the most prevalent throughout the day. Wind again to maintain a northerly component at 10mph or less but primarily NNE-NE, and maybe a bit stronger across and near the big rivers. There are some rain showers just off the coast this morning, but at this time it does not appear they will penetrate the coast. Tonight will be another night with the potential for fog development sometime after midnight across all of Central Florida, but this will be of little to no impact to anyone other than the very early riser who needs good visibility, but of no impact for taking the dog for a walk.

Saturday: Other than the morning fog and low clouds, Saturday will again be a low-end weather impact day. Wind should start to gain more of an easterly component though...and eventually a southeast component as we head toward sunset. More clouds to stream overhead in advance of the currently developing surface low, which by late Saturday will have developed and be somewhere near the southern border of Louisiana as it shifts ENE. We may see a big increase in clouds as somewhat of a warm front wraps northward up the state ahead of this feature, and shower activity shouldn't be entirely discounted, especially from Sarasota south to Ft. Myers during the day. Believe at this time that any such activity that could affect us will refrain from doing so until after sunset Saturday. Over night we lose the onshore component of the wind altogether and get into a moist, gooey feeling SW wind with more clouds and maybe a shower.

Sunday: This day will be primarily a "here comes du front" day...with SW-WSW winds all day..getting up to 15-20mph in gusts at times...mostly cloudy and some showers around. Don't know about thunder though. Still think that potential will only provide such generosities to the latitude of Gainesville to Daytona and points north as delineated on Wednesday. The front will drag its mucky heals attained by crossing the wet Gulf across us until at least mid-day Monday.

After that, say the Monday-Thanksgiving day time frame..we will influenced mostly by high pressure planted across the southeast states with a return to northeast winds. ..the windiest of which my actually be Thanksgiving Day. Just exactly how much cloudiness and maybe even a rain shower along the coast will be associated with the wind is still out for the jury to decide, but let it be known that at this point Thanksgiving Day could very well not be pristine or anywhere close to it. But most of the day is usually spent inside let nature do its thing.

As for the title of today's post? It seems that although no cold air will be associated with this coming front/low pressure couplet, it will reinforce what we already have over us...that is to say...coolish air (pleasant temperature wise)..with no sight of what some would consider 'uncomfortably warm' in sight.

Post-Thanksgiving?: Still appears a good 'snap' of air below the 'cool threshold' is in the offing. Just as it did a few days ago. Being as this is a week away, it would be irresponsible to provide a definitive assertion of just exactly when and how noticeable the change will be. Suffice it say though, that the likelihood of fall impinging upon us even further its gentle reminder that summer is GONE looms in the macrocosm of the atmospheric realm (i.e., to those that wish for eternal summer).

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